| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Raj, Satish R, et al.
(author)
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Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) : Priorities for POTS care and research from a 2019 National Institutes of Health Expert Consensus Meeting - Part 2
- 2021
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In: Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic & Clinical. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-7484. ; 235
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The National Institutes of Health hosted a workshop in 2019 to build consensus around the current state of understanding of the pathophysiology of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) and to identify knowledge gaps that must be addressed to enhance clinical care of POTS patients through research. This second (of two) articles summarizes current knowledge gaps, and outlines the clinical and research priorities for POTS. POTS is a complex, multi-system, chronic disorder of the autonomic nervous system characterized by orthostatic intolerance and orthostatic tachycardia without hypotension. Patients often experience a host of other related disabling symptoms. The functional and economic impacts of this disorder are significant. The pathophysiology remains incompletely understood. Beyond the significant gaps in understanding the disorder itself, there is a paucity of evidence to guide treatment which can contribute to suboptimal care for this patient population. The vast majority of physicians have minimal to no familiarity or training in the assessment and management of POTS. Funding for POTS research remains very low relative to the size of the patient population and impact of the syndrome. In addition to efforts to improve awareness and physician education, an investment in research infrastructure including the development of standardized disease-specific evaluation tools and outcome measures is needed to facilitate effective collaborative research. A national POTS research consortium could facilitate well-controlled multidisciplinary clinical research studies and therapeutic trials. These priorities will require a substantial increase in the number of research investigators and the amount of research funding in this area.
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| 4. |
- Vernino, Steven, et al.
(author)
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Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) : State of the science and clinical care from a 2019 National Institutes of Health Expert Consensus Meeting - Part 1
- 2021
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In: Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic and Clinical. - : Elsevier BV. - 1566-0702. ; 235
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a chronic and often disabling disorder characterized by orthostatic intolerance with excessive heart rate increase without hypotension during upright posture. Patients often experience a constellation of other typical symptoms including fatigue, exercise intolerance and gastrointestinal distress. A typical patient with POTS is a female of child-bearing age, who often first displays symptoms in adolescence. The onset of POTS may be precipitated by immunological stressors such as a viral infection. A variety of pathophysiologies are involved in the abnormal postural tachycardia response; however, the pathophysiology of the syndrome is incompletely understood and undoubtedly multifaceted. Clinicians and researchers focused on POTS convened at the National Institutes of Health in July 2019 to discuss the current state of understanding of the pathophysiology of POTS and to identify priorities for POTS research. This article, the first of two articles summarizing the information discussed at this meeting, summarizes the current understanding of this disorder and best practices for clinical care. The evaluation of a patient with suspected POTS should seek to establish the diagnosis, identify co-morbid conditions, and exclude conditions that could cause or mimic the syndrome. Once diagnosed, management typically begins with patient education and non-pharmacologic treatment options. Various medications are often used to address specific symptoms, but there are currently no FDA-approved medications for the treatment of POTS, and evidence for many of the medications used to treat POTS is not robust.
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| 5. |
- Brignole, Michele, et al.
(author)
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Low-blood pressure phenotype underpins the tendency to reflex syncope
- 2021
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In: Journal of Hypertension. - 1473-5598. ; 39:7, s. 1319-1325
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: We hypothesized that cardiovascular physiology differs in reflex syncope patients compared with the general population, predisposing such individuals to vasovagal reflex.METHODS: In this multicohort cross-sectional study, we compared aggregate data of resting SBP, DBP, pulse pressure (PP) and heart rate (HR), collected from six community-based cohort studies (64 968 observations) with those from six databases of reflex syncope patients (6516 observations), subdivided by age decades and sex.RESULTS: Overall, in male individuals with reflex syncope, SBP (-3.4 mmHg) and PP (-9.2 mmHg) were lower and DBP (+2.8 mmHg) and HR (+5.1 bpm) were higher than in the general population; the difference in SBP was higher at ages above 60 years. In female individuals, PP (-6.0 mmHg) was lower and DBP (+4.7 mmHg) and HR (+4.5 bpm) were higher than in the general population; differences in SBP were less pronounced, becoming evident only above 60 years. Compared with male individuals, SBP in female individuals exhibited slower increase until age 40 years, and then demonstrated steeper increase that continued throughout remaining life.CONCLUSION: The patients prone to reflex syncope demonstrate a different resting cardiovascular haemodynamic profile as compared with a general population, characterized by lower SBP and PP, reflecting reduced venous return and lower stroke volume, and a higher HR and DBP, suggesting the activation of compensatory mechanisms. Our data contribute to a better understanding why some individuals with similar demographic characteristics develop reflex syncope and others do not.VIDEO ABSTRACT: http://links.lww.com/HJH/B580.
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| 6. |
- Fedorowski, Artur, et al.
(author)
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Cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction in post-COVID-19 syndrome : a major health-care burden
- 2024
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In: Nature Reviews Cardiology. - 1759-5002. ; 21:6, s. 361-378
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction (CVAD) is a malfunction of the cardiovascular system caused by deranged autonomic control of circulatory homeostasis. CVAD is an important component of post-COVID-19 syndrome, also termed long COVID, and might affect one-third of highly symptomatic patients with COVID-19. The effects of CVAD can be seen at both the whole-body level, with impairment of heart rate and blood pressure control, and in specific body regions, typically manifesting as microvascular dysfunction. Many severely affected patients with long COVID meet the diagnostic criteria for two common presentations of CVAD: postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome and inappropriate sinus tachycardia. CVAD can also manifest as disorders associated with hypotension, such as orthostatic or postprandial hypotension, and recurrent reflex syncope. Advances in research, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have identified new potential pathophysiological mechanisms, diagnostic methods and therapeutic targets in CVAD. For clinicians who daily see patients with CVAD, knowledge of its symptomatology, detection and appropriate management is more important than ever. In this Review, we define CVAD and its major forms that are encountered in post-COVID-19 syndrome, describe possible CVAD aetiologies, and discuss how CVAD, as a component of post-COVID-19 syndrome, can be diagnosed and managed. Moreover, we outline directions for future research to discover more efficient ways to cope with this prevalent and long-lasting condition.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Hall, Juliette, et al.
(author)
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Detection of G Protein-Coupled Receptor Autoantibodies in Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome Using Standard Methodology
- 2022
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In: Circulation. - 1524-4539. ; 146:8, s. 613-622
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a disorder of orthostatic intolerance that primarily affects women of childbearing age. The underlying pathophysiology of POTS is not fully understood, but it has been suggested that autoimmunity may play a role. The aim of this study was to compare concentrations of autoantibodies to cardiovascular G protein-coupled receptors between patients with POTS and healthy controls.METHODS: Sera were collected from 116 patients with POTS (91% female; mean age, 29 years) and 81 healthy controls (84% female; mean age, 27 years) from Calgary, Canada, and Malmö, Sweden. Samples were evaluated for autoantibodies to 11 receptors (adrenergic, muscarinic, angiotensin II, and endothelin) using a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.RESULTS: Autoantibody concentrations against all of the receptors tested were not significantly different between controls and patients with POTS. The majority of patients with POTS (98.3%) and all controls (100%) had α1 adrenergic receptor autoantibody concentrations above the seropositive threshold provided by the manufacturer (7 units/mL). The proportion of patients with POTS versus healthy controls who fell above the diagnostic thresholds was not different for any tested autoantibodies. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed a poor ability to discriminate between patients with POTS and controls.CONCLUSION: Patients with POTS and healthy controls do not differ in their enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-derived autoantibody concentrations to cardiovascular G protein-coupled receptors. These findings suggest that these tests are not useful for establishing the role of autoimmunity in POTS.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Yu, Xichun, et al.
(author)
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Angiotensin II type 1 receptor autoantibodies in postural tachycardia syndrome
- 2018
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 7:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background--Both the adrenergic and renin-angiotensin systems contribute to orthostatic circulatory homeostasis, which is impaired in postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS). Activating autoantibodies to the α1-adrenergic and β1/2-adrenergic receptors have previously been found in sera from patients with POTS. We hypothesized that patients with POTS might also harbor activating autoantibodies to the angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R) independently of antiadrenergic autoimmunity. This study examines a possible pathophysiological role for AT1R autoantibodies in POTS. Methods and Results--Serum immunoglobulin G from 17 patients with POTS, 6 patients with recurrent vasovagal syncope, and 10 normal controls was analyzed for the ability to activate AT1R and alter AT1R ligand responsiveness in transfected cells in vitro. Of 17 subjects with POTS, 12 demonstrated significant AT1R antibody activity in immunoglobulin G purified from their serum. No significant AT1R antibody activity was found in the subjects with vasovagal syncope or healthy subjects. AT1R activation by POTS immunoglobulin G was specifically blocked by the AT1R blocker losartan. Moreover, POTS immunoglobulin G significantly shifted the angiotensin II dosage response curve to the right, consistent with an inhibitory effect. All subjects with POTS were positive for one or both autoantibodies to the AT1R and α1-adrenergic receptor. Conclusions--Most patients with POTS harbor AT1R antibody activity. This supports the concept that AT1R autoantibodies and antiadrenergic autoantibodies, acting separately or together, may exert a significant impact on the cardiovascular pathophysiological characteristics in POTS.
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