1. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Global tree-ring response and inferred climate variation following the mid-thirteenth century Samalas eruption
- 2022
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In: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 59:1-2, s. 531-546
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The largest explosive volcanic eruption of the Common Era in terms of estimated sulphur yield to the stratosphere was identified in glaciochemical records 40 years ago, and dates to the mid-thirteenth century. Despite eventual attribution to the Samalas (Rinjani) volcano in Indonesia, the eruption date remains uncertain, and the climate response only partially understood. Seeking a more global perspective on summer surface temperature and hydroclimate change following the eruption, we present an analysis of 249 tree-ring chronologies spanning the thirteenth century and representing all continents except Antarctica. Of the 170 predominantly temperature sensitive high-frequency chronologies, the earliest hints of boreal summer cooling are the growth depressions found at sites in the western US and Canada in 1257 CE. If this response is a result of Samalas, it would be consistent with an eruption window of circa May-July 1257 CE. More widespread summer cooling across the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia is pronounced in 1258, while records from Scandinavia and Siberia reveal peak cooling in 1259. In contrast to the marked post-Samalas temperature response at high-elevation sites in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong hydroclimatic anomalies emerge from the 79 precipitation-sensitive chronologies. Although our findings remain spatially biased towards the western US and central Europe, and growth-climate response patterns are not always dominated by a single meteorological factor, this study offers a global proxy framework for the evaluation of paleoclimate model simulations.
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2. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE
- 2022
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In: Science Bulletin. - : Elsevier BV. - 2095-9273. ; 67:22, s. 2336-2344
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.
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3. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Multi-proxy dating of Iceland's major pre-settlement Katla eruption to 822-823 CE
- 2017
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In: Geology. - 0091-7613 .- 1943-2682. ; 45:9, s. 783-786
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Investigations of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on climate, environment, and society require accurate chronologies. However, eruptions that are not recorded in historical documents can seldom be dated exactly. Here we use annually resolved radiocarbon (C-14) measurements to isolate the 775 CE cosmogenic C-14 peak in a subfossil birch tree that was buried by a glacial outburst flood in southern Iceland. We employ this absolute time marker to date a subglacial eruption of Katla volcano at late 822 CE to early 823 CE. We argue for correlation between the 822-823 CE eruption and a conspicuous sulfur anomaly evident in Greenland ice cores, which follows in the wake of an even larger volcanic signal (ca. 818-820 CE) as yet not attributed to a known eruption. An abrupt summer cooling in 824 CE, evident in tree-ring reconstructions for Fennoscandia and the Northern Hemisphere, suggests a climatic response to the Katla eruption. Written historical sources from Europe and China corroborate our proposed tree ring-radiocarbon-ice core linkage but also point to combined effects of eruptions occurring during this period. Our study describes the oldest precisely dated, high-latitude eruption and reveals the impact of an extended phase of volcanic forcing in the early 9th century. It also provides insight into the existence of prehistoric woodland cover and the nature of volcanism several decades before Iceland's permanent settlement began.
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4. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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New Tree-Ring Evidence from the Pyrenees Reveals Western Mediterranean Climate Variability since Medieval Times
- 2017
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In: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 30:14, s. 5295-5318
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Paleoclimatic evidence is necessary to place the current warming and drying of the western Mediterranean basin in a long-term perspective of natural climate variability. Annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature proxies south of the European Alps that extend back into medieval times are, however, mainly limited to measurements of maximum latewood density (MXD) from high-elevation conifers. Here, the authors present the world's best replicated MXD site chronology of 414 living and relict Pinus uncinata trees found >2200 m above mean sea level (MSL) in the Spanish central Pyrenees. This composite record correlates significantly (p <= 0.01) with May-June and August-September mean temperatures over most of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa (r = 0.72; 1950-2014). Spanning the period 1186-2014 of the Common Era (CE), the new reconstruction reveals overall warmer conditions around 1200 and 1400, and again after around 1850. The coldest reconstructed summer in 1258 (-4.4 degrees C compared to 1961-90) followed the largest known volcanic eruption of the CE. The twentieth century is characterized by pronounced summer cooling in the 1970s, subsequently rising temperatures until 2003, and a slowdown of warming afterward. Little agreement is found with climate model simulations that consistently overestimate recent summer warming and underestimate preindustrial temperature changes. Interannual-multidecadal covariability with regional hydroclimate includes summer pluvials after large volcanic eruptions. This study demonstrates the relevance of updating MXD-based temperature reconstructions, not only back in time but also toward the present, and emphasizes the importance of comparing temperature and hydroclimatic proxies, as well as model simulations for understanding regional climate dynamics.
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5. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Prominent role of volcanism in Common Era climate variability and human history
- 2020
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In: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 64
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2020 Elsevier GmbH Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.
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6. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Recent European drought extremes beyond Common Era background variability
- 2021
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In: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:4, s. 190-196
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Europe's recent summer droughts have had devastating ecological and economic consequences, but the severity and cause of these extremes remain unclear. Here we present 27,080 annually resolved and absolutely dated measurements of tree-ring stable carbon and oxygen (delta C-13 and delta O-18) isotopes from 21 living and 126 relict oaks (Quercus spp.) used to reconstruct central European summer hydroclimate from 75 bce to 2018 ce. We find that the combined inverse delta C-13 and delta O-18 values correlate with the June-August Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1901-2018 at 0.73 (P < 0.001). Pluvials around 200, 720 and 1100 ce, and droughts around 40, 590, 950 and 1510 ce and in the twenty-first century, are superimposed on a multi-millennial drying trend. Our reconstruction demonstrates that the sequence of recent European summer droughts since 2015 ce is unprecedented in the past 2,110 years. This hydroclimatic anomaly is probably caused by anthropogenic warming and associated changes in the position of the summer jet stream. European summer droughts in recent years are anomalously severe compared with those of the previous 2,000 years, according to a synthesis of annually resolved tree-ring carbon and oxygen isotope records.
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7. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'
- 2017
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In: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:4, s. 243-243
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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8. |
- Büntgen, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
- 2021
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a moreconsensual picture of past climate variability.
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9. |
- Esper, Jan, et al.
(author)
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The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history
- 2024
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In: Communications Earth & Environment. - 2662-4435. ; 5
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.
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10. |
- Hellmann, Lena, et al.
(author)
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Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia's boreal forest
- 2016
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The area covered by boreal forests accounts for similar to 16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth's carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 degrees N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p <= 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia's northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.
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11. |
- Kirdyanov, Alexander, et al.
(author)
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Notes towards an optimal sampling strategy in dendroclimatology
- 2018
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In: Dendrochronologia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1125-7865 .- 1612-0051. ; 52, s. 162-166
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Though the extraction of increment cores is common practice in tree-ring research, there is no standard for the number of samples per tree, or trees per site needed to accurately describe the common growth pattern of a discrete population of trees over space and time. Tree-ring chronologies composed of living, subfossil and archaeological material often combine an uneven distribution of increment cores and disc samples. The effects of taking one or two cores per tree, or even the inclusion of multiple radii measurements from entire discs, on chronology development and quality remain unreported. Here, we present four new larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr) ring width chronologies from the same 20 trees in northeastern Siberia that have been independently developed using different combinations of core and disc samples. Our experiment reveals: i) sawing is much faster than coring, with the latter not always hitting the pith; ii) the disc-based chronology contains fewer locally absent rings, extends further back in time and exhibits more growth coherency; iii) although the sampling design has little impact on the overall chronology behaviour, lower frequency information is more robustly obtained from the disc measurements that also tend to reflect a slightly stronger temperature signal. In quantifying the influence of sampling strategy on the quality of tree-ring width chronologies, and their suitability for climate reconstructions, this study provides useful insights for optimizing fieldwork campaigns, as well as for developing composite chronologies from different wood sources.
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12. |
- Lendvay, Bertalan, et al.
(author)
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Improved recovery of ancient DNA from subfossil wood - application to the world's oldest Late Glacial pine forest
- 2018
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In: New Phytologist. - : Wiley. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 217:4, s. 1737-1748
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Ancient DNA from historical and subfossil wood has a great potential to provide new insights into the history of tree populations. However, its extraction and analysis have not become routine, mainly because contamination of the wood with modern plant material can complicate the verification of genetic information. Here, we used sapwood tissue from 22 subfossil pines that were growing c. 13000yr bp in Zurich, Switzerland. We developed and evaluated protocols to eliminate surface contamination, and we tested ancient DNA authenticity based on plastid DNA metabarcoding and the assessment of post-mortem DNA damage. A novel approach using laser irradiation coupled with bleaching and surface removal was most efficient in eliminating contaminating DNA. DNA metabarcoding confirmed which ancient DNA samples repeatedly amplified pine DNA and were free of exogenous plant taxa. Pine DNA sequences of these samples showed a high degree of cytosine to thymine mismatches, typical of post-mortem damage. Stringent decontamination of wood surfaces combined with DNA metabarcoding and assessment of post-mortem DNA damage allowed us to authenticate ancient DNA retrieved from the oldest Late Glacial pine forest. These techniques can be applied to any subfossil wood and are likely to improve the accessibility of relict wood for genome-scale ancient DNA studies.
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13. |
- Piermattei, Alma, et al.
(author)
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A millennium-long 'Blue Ring' chronology from the Spanish Pyrenees reveals severe ephemeral summer cooling after volcanic eruptions
- 2020
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species from different sites. While it is evident that they are associated with a cooling-induced lack of cell wall lignification, BRs have yet to be evaluated systematically in paleoclimate studies. Here, we present a continuous wood anatomical assessment of 31 living and relict pine samples from a high-elevation site in the central Spanish Pyrenees that span the period 1150-2017 CE at annual resolution. While most BR years coincide with cold summer temperatures and many BRs follow large volcanic eruptions, some were formed during overall warm summers. We also see a differential response between eruptions: the Samalas eruption is followed by 80% BRs in 1258, but only a modest signal is evident after the 1815 Tambora eruption, and there are no wood anatomical effects of the Laki eruption in 1783-1784. Apparently linked to a cluster of tropical eruptions in 1695 and 1696 CE, 85% BRs occurred in 1698. This new wood anatomical evidence is corroborated by the record of sulphur deposition in polar ice cores, and corresponds with catastrophic famine and unprecedented mortality in Scotland. The extremely rare occurrence of consecutive BRs in 1345 and 1346 marks the onset and spread of the Black Death, Europe's most devastating plague pandemic. In their ability to capture severe ephemeral cold spells, as short as several days or weeks, BR chronologies can help to investigate and understand the impacts of volcanism on climate and society.
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14. |
- Reimer, Paula J., et al.
(author)
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The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP)
- 2020
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In: Radiocarbon. - 0033-8222. ; 62:4, s. 725-757
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Radiocarbon (C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
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