1. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(author)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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2. |
- Addor, Nans, et al.
(author)
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Propagation of biases in climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale : Implications for bias adjustment
- 2016
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 121:5, s. 2075-2089
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Bias adjustment methods usually do not account for the origins of biases in climate models and instead perform empirical adjustments. Biases in the synoptic circulation are for instance often overlooked when postprocessing regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). Yet considering atmospheric circulation helps to establish links between the synoptic and the regional scale, and thereby provides insights into the physical processes leading to RCM biases. Here we investigate how synoptic circulation biases impact regional climate simulations and influence our ability to mitigate biases in precipitation and temperature using quantile mapping. We considered 20 GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project and characterized the dominant atmospheric flow over the Alpine domain using circulation types. We report in particular a systematic overestimation of the frequency of westerly flow in winter. We show that it contributes to the generalized overestimation of winter precipitation over Switzerland, and this wet regional bias can be reduced by improving the simulation of synoptic circulation. We also demonstrate that statistical bias adjustment relying on quantile mapping is sensitive to circulation biases, which leads to residual errors in the postprocessed time series. Overall, decomposing GCM-RCM time series using circulation types reveals connections missed by analyses relying on monthly or seasonal values. Our results underscore the necessity to better diagnose process misrepresentation in climate models to progress with bias adjustment and impact modeling.
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3. |
- Ali, Genevieve, et al.
(author)
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Comparison of threshold hydrologic response across northern catchments
- 2015
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 29:16, s. 3575-3591
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nine mid-latitude to high-latitude headwater catchments - part of the Northern Watershed Ecosystem Response to Climate Change (North-Watch) programme - were used to analyze threshold response to rainfall and snowmelt-driven events and link the different responses to the catchment characteristics of the nine sites. The North-Watch data include daily time-series of various lengths of multiple variables such as air temperature, precipitation and discharge. Rainfall and meltwater inputs were differentiated using a degree-day snowmelt approach. Distinct hydrological events were identified, and precipitation-runoff response curves were visually assessed. Results showed that eight of nine catchments showed runoff initiation thresholds and effective precipitation input thresholds. For rainfall-triggered events, catchment hydroclimatic and physical characteristics (e.g. mean annual air temperature, median flow path distance to the stream, median sub-catchment area) were strong predictors of threshold strength. For snowmelt-driven events, however, thresholds and the factors controlling precipitation-runoff response were difficult to identify. The variability in catchments responses to snowmelt was not fully explained by runoff initiation thresholds and input magnitude thresholds. The quantification of input intensity thresholds (e.g. snow melting and permafrost thawing rates) is likely required for an adequate characterization of nonlinear spring runoff generation in such northern environments.
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4. |
- Amvrosiadi, Nino, et al.
(author)
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Soil moisture storage estimation based on steady vertical fluxes under equilibrium
- 2017
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 553, s. 798-804
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Soil moisture is an important variable for hillslope and catchment hydrology. There are various computational methods to estimate soil moisture and their complexity varies greatly: from one box with vertically constant volumetric soil water content to fully saturated-unsaturated coupled physically-based models. Different complexity levels are applicable depending on the simulation scale, computational time limitations, input data and knowledge about the parameters. The Vertical Equilibrium Model (VEM) is a simple approach to estimate the catchment-wide soil water storage at a daily time-scale on the basis of water table level observations, soil properties and an assumption of hydrological equilibrium without vertical fluxes above the water table. In this study VEM was extended by considering vertical fluxes, which allows conditions with evaporation and infiltration to be represented. The aim was to test the hypothesis that the simulated volumetric soil water content significantly depends on vertical fluxes. The water content difference between the no-flux, equilibrium approach and the new constant-flux approach greatly depended on the soil textural class, ranging between ∼1% for silty clay and ∼44% for sand at an evapotranspiration rate of 5 mm·d−1. The two approaches gave a mean volumetric soil water content difference of ∼1 mm for two case studies (sandy loam and organic rich soils). The results showed that for many soil types the differences in estimated storage between the no-flux and the constant flux approaches were relatively small.
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5. |
- Amvrosiadi, Nino
(author)
-
The value of experimental data and modelling for exploration of hydrological functioning: The case of a till hillslope
- 2017
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Successfully modeling one system response (e.g. hydrograph or solute transport) sometimes gives the false sense of well-characterizing the modeled system. This is partly because of the well-known equifinality issue; during the calibration process multiple parameter combinations can produce similarly good results. One step forward towards a better-defined system is using measured (at relevant scale) values for the model parameters, as well as using multiple conditions to constrain the model.But when not enough, or relevant, field measurements are available, virtual experiments (VE’s) can be used as a supplementary method to model calibration. The advantage of VE’s over model calibration is that they can also be used to explore assumptions both on the system hydrological processes, and on the model structure.One goal of this study was to utilize both field measurements and models for better characterization of the S-transect hillslope, located in Västrabäcken catchment, Northern Sweden. This included (a) characteristics in space: system vertical boundaries, hydraulic parameters, pore water velocity distribution, spatial correlation of flowpaths, soil water retention properties; (b) characteristic of system’s dynamic behavior: storage – discharge relationship, transit time distribution, turnover time; and (c) outputs’ sensitivity to external forcing, and to small scale structure assumptions. The second goal was to comment on the value of field measurements and virtual experiments for extracting information about the studied system.An intensely monitored study hillslope was chosen for this work. Although the hillslope has already been the subject of multiple field and modelling studies, there are still open questions regarding the characteristics listed above. The models used were the Vertical Equilibrium Model (VEM), and the Multiple Interacting Pathways (MIPs) model.It was found that the hillslope was well connected; from the near-stream areas up to the water divide the storage – discharge relationship could be described as an exponential function. Also, the dynamic storage (which controls the hydrograph dynamics) was much smaller comparing to the total hillslope storage. The unsaturated soil storage was found to be more sensitive to water table positions than vertical flux magnitude. The dynamic condition of external forcing (precipitation and evapotranspiration) affected the transit time distribution (TTD) shape. And, opposite to expectations, TTD was not sensitive to micro-scale structural assumptions tested here.
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6. |
- Amvrosiadi, Nino, et al.
(author)
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Water storage dynamics in a till hillslope : the foundation for modeling flows and turnover times
- 2017
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : John Wiley and Sons Ltd. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 31:1, s. 4-14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Studies on hydrology, biogeochemistry, or mineral weathering often rely on assumptions about flow paths, water storage dynamics, and transit times. Testing these assumptions requires detailed hydrometric data that are usually unavailable at the catchment scale. Hillslope studies provide an alternative for obtaining a better understanding, but even on such well-defined and delimited scales, it is rare to have a comprehensive set of hydrometric observations from the water divide down to the stream that can constrain efforts to quantify water storage, movement, and turnover time. Here, we quantified water storage with daily resolution in a hillslope during the course of almost an entire year using hydrological measurements at the study site and an extended version of the vertical equilibrium model. We used an exponential function to simulate the relationship between hillslope discharge and water table; this was used to derive transmissivity profiles along the hillslope and map mean pore water velocities in the saturated zone. Based on the transmissivity profiles, the soil layer transmitting 99% of lateral flow to the stream had a depth that ranged from 8.9 m at the water divide to under 1 m closer to the stream. During the study period, the total storage of this layer varied from 1189 to 1485 mm, resulting in a turnover time of 2172 days. From the pore water velocities, we mapped the time it would take a water particle situated at any point of the saturated zone anywhere along the hillslope to exit as runoff. Our calculations point to the strengths as well as limitations of simple hydrometric data for inferring hydrological properties and water travel times in the subsurface.
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7. |
- Bishop, Kevin, et al.
(author)
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A primer for hydrology : the beguiling simplicity of Water's journey from rain to stream at 30 Preface
- 2015
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 29:16, s. 3443-3446
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Water's journey from rain to stream by Harald Grip and Allan Rodhe (1985, in Swedish: Vattnets vag fran regn till back) was one of the first textbooks to present groundwater contributions as a major feature of runoff generation, with implications for water quality and management. Three decades later, we have the privilege of presenting a special issue of Hydrological Processes, Runoff Generation in a Nordic Light: 30Years with Water's Journey from Rain to Stream' that seeks to introduce the book to a larger audience and continue the journey of ideas that the authors set in motion with their book.
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8. |
- Brunner, Manuela Irene, et al.
(author)
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Bivariate return periods and their importance for flood peak and volume estimation
- 2016
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In: WIREs Water. - : Wiley. - 2049-1948. ; 3:6, s. 819-833
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Estimates of flood event magnitudes with a certain return period are required for the design of hydraulic structures. While the return period is clearly defined in a univariate context, its definition is more challenging when the problem at hand requires considering the dependence between two or more variables in a multivariate framework. Several ways of defining a multivariate return period have been proposed in the literature, which all rely on different probability concepts. Definitions use the conditional probability, the joint probability, or can be based on the Kendall's distribution or survival function. In this study, we give a comprehensive overview on the tools that are available to define a return period in a multivariate context. We especially address engineers, practitioners, and people who are new to the topic and provide them with an accessible introduction to the topic. We outline the theoretical background that is needed when one is in a multivariate setting and present the reader with different definitions for a bivariate return period. Here, we focus on flood events and the different probability concepts are explained with a pedagogical, illustrative example of a flood event characterized by the two variables peak discharge and flood volume. The choice of the return period has an important effect on the magnitude of the design variable quantiles, which is illustrated with a case study in Switzerland. However, this choice is not arbitrary and depends on the problem at hand.
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9. |
- Brunner, Manuela I., et al.
(author)
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Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs
- 2017
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In: Water resources research. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 53:2, s. 1390-1406
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.
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10. |
- Brunner, Manuela I., et al.
(author)
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Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs
- 2018
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In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 54:3, s. 1852-1867
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Flood hydrograph shapes contain valuable information on the flood-generation mechanisms of a catchment. To make good use of this information, we express flood hydrograph shapes as continuous functions using a functional data approach. We propose a clustering approach based on functional data for flood hydrograph shapes to identify a set of representative hydrograph shapes on a catchment scale and use these catchment-specific sets of representative hydrographs to establish regions of catchments with similar flood reactivity on a regional scale. We applied this approach to flood samples of 163 medium-size Swiss catchments. The results indicate that three representative hydrograph shapes sufficiently describe the hydrograph shape variability within a catchment and therefore can be used as a proxy for the flood behavior of a catchment. These catchment-specific sets of three hydrographs were used to group the catchments into three reactivity regions of similar flood behavior. These regions were not only characterized by similar hydrograph shapes and reactivity but also by event magnitudes and triggering event conditions. We envision these regions to be useful in regionalization studies, regional flood frequency analyses, and to allow for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. The clustering approach based on functional data which establish these regions is very flexible and has the potential to be extended to other geographical regions or toward the use in climate impact studies.
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11. |
- Brunner, Manuela Irene, et al.
(author)
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Representative sets of design hydrographs for ungauged catchments : A regional approach using probabilistic region memberships
- 2018
-
In: Advances in Water Resources. - : Elsevier BV. - 0309-1708 .- 1872-9657. ; 112, s. 235-244
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Traditional design flood estimation approaches have focused on peak discharges and have often neglected other hydrograph characteristics such as hydrograph volume and shape. Synthetic design hydrograph estimation procedures overcome this deficiency by jointly considering peak discharge, hydrograph volume, and shape. Such procedures have recently been extended to allow for the consideration of process variability within a catchment by a flood-type specific construction of design hydrographs. However, they depend on observed runoff time series and are not directly applicable in ungauged catchments where such series are not available. To obtain reliable flood estimates, there is a need for an approach that allows for the consideration of process variability in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. In this study, we therefore propose an approach that combines a bivariate index flood approach with event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction. First, regions of similar flood reactivity are delineated and a classification rule that enables the assignment of ungauged catchments to one of these reactivity regions is established. Second, event-type specific synthetic design hydrographs are constructed using the pooled data divided by event type from the corresponding reactivity region in a bivariate index flood procedure. The approach was tested and validated on a dataset of 163 Swiss catchments. The results indicated that 1) random forest is a suitable classification model for the assignment of an ungauged catchment to one of the reactivity regions, 2) the combination of a bivariate index flood approach and event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph construction enables the consideration of event types in ungauged catchments, and 3) the use of probabilistic class memberships in regional synthetic design hydrograph construction helps to alleviate the problem of misclassification. Event-type specific synthetic design hydrograph sets enable the inclusion of process variability into design flood estimation and can be used as a compromise between single best estimate synthetic design hydrographs and continuous simulation studies.
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12. |
- Brunner, Manuela I., et al.
(author)
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Synthetic design hydrographs for ungauged catchments : a comparison of regionalization methods
- 2018
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In: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3240 .- 1436-3259. ; 32:7, s. 1993-2023
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Design flood estimates for a given return period are required in both gauged and ungauged catchments for hydraulic design and risk assessments. Contrary to classical design estimates, synthetic design hydrographs provide not only information on the peak magnitude of events but also on the corresponding hydrograph volumes together with the hydrograph shapes. In this study, we tested different regionalization approaches to transfer parameters of synthetic design hydrographs from gauged to ungauged catchments. These approaches include classical regionalization methods such as linear regression techniques, spatial methods, and methods based on the formation of homogeneous regions. In addition to these classical approaches, we tested nonlinear regression models not commonly used in hydrological regionalization studies, such as random forest, bagging, and boosting. We found that parameters related to the magnitude of the design event can be regionalized well using both linear and nonlinear regression techniques using catchment area, length of the main channel, maximum precipitation intensity, and relief energy as explanatory variables. The hydrograph shape, however, was found to be more difficult to regionalize due to its high variability within a catchment. Such variability might be better represented by looking at flood-type specific synthetic design hydrographs.
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13. |
- Ewen, Tracy, et al.
(author)
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Learning about water resource sharing through game play
- 2016
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 20:10, s. 4079-4091
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Games are an optimal way to teach about water resource sharing, as they allow real-world scenarios to be enacted. Both students and professionals learning about water resource management can benefit from playing games, through the process of understanding both the complexity of sharing of resources between different groups and decision outcomes. Here we address how games can be used to teach about water resource sharing, through both playing and developing water games. An evaluation of using the web-based game Irrigania in the classroom setting, supported by feedback from several educators who have used Irrigania to teach about the sustainable use of water resources, and decision making, at university and high school levels, finds Irrigania to be an effective and easy tool to incorporate into a curriculum. The development of two water games in a course for masters students in geography is also presented as a way to teach and communicate about water resource sharing. Through game development, students learned soft skills, including critical thinking, problem solving, team work, and time management, and overall the process was found to be an effective way to learn about water resource decision outcomes. This paper concludes with a discussion of learning outcomes from both playing and developing water games.
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14. |
- Finger, David, et al.
(author)
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The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments
- 2015
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In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 51:4, s. 1939-1958
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The assessment of snow, glacier, and rainfall runoff contribution to discharge in mountain streams is of major importance for an adequate water resource management. Such contributions can be estimated via hydrological models, provided that the modeling adequately accounts for snow and glacier melt, as well as rainfall runoff. We present a multiple data set calibration approach to estimate runoff composition using hydrological models with three levels of complexity. For this purpose, the code of the conceptual runoff model HBV-light was enhanced to allow calibration and validation of simulations against glacier mass balances, satellite-derived snow cover area and measured discharge. Three levels of complexity of the model were applied to glacierized catchments in Switzerland, ranging from 39 to 103 km(2). The results indicate that all three observational data sets are reproduced adequately by the model, allowing an accurate estimation of the runoff composition in the three mountain streams. However, calibration against only runoff leads to unrealistic snow and glacier melt rates. Based on these results, we recommend using all three observational data sets in order to constrain model parameters and compute snow, glacier, and rain contributions. Finally, based on the comparison of model performance of different complexities, we postulate that the availability and use of different data sets to calibrate hydrological models might be more important than model complexity to achieve realistic estimations of runoff composition.
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15. |
- Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al.
(author)
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Assessing the Sampling Quality of a Low-Tech Low-Budget Volume-Based Rainfall Sampler for Stable Isotope Analysis
- 2019
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In: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-6463. ; 7
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To better understand the small-scale variability of rainfall and its isotopic composition it is advantageous to utilize rain samplers which are at the same time low-cost, low-tech, robust, and precise with respect to the collected rainwater isotopic composition. We assessed whether a self-built version of the Kennedy sampler is able to collect rainwater consistently without mixing with antecedent collected water. We called the self-built sampler made from honey jars and silicon tubing the Zurich sequential sampler. Two laboratory experiments show that high rainfall intensities can be sampled and that the volume of water in a water sample originating from a different bottle was generally less than 1 ml. Rainwater was collected in 5 mm increments for stable isotope analysis using three (year 2011) and five (years 2015 and 2016) rain samplers in Zurich (Switzerland) during eleven rainfall events. The standard deviation of the total rainfall amounts between the different rain gauges was <1%. The standard deviation of delta O-18 and delta H-2 among the different sequential sampler bottles filled at the same time was generally <0.3 parts per thousand for delta O-18 and <2 parts per thousand for delta H-2 (8 out of 11 events). Larger standard deviations could be explained by leaking bottle(s) with subsequent mixing of water with different isotopic composition of at least one out of the five samplers. Our assessment shows that low-cost, low-tech rain samplers, when well maintained, can be used to collect sequential samples of rainfall for stable isotope analysis and are therefore suitable to study the spatio-temporal variability of the isotopic composition of rainfall.
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16. |
- Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al.
(author)
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Contributing sources to baseflow in pre-alpine headwaters using spatial snapshot sampling
- 2015
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 29:26, s. 5321-5336
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mountainous headwaters consist of different landscape units including forests, meadows and wetlands. In these headwaters it is unclear which landscape units contribute what percentage to baseflow. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal differences in baseflow isotope and hydrochemistry to identify catchment-scale runoff contribution. Three baseflow snapshot sampling campaigns were performed in the Swiss pre-alpine headwater catchment of the Zckentobel (4.25 km(2)) and six of its adjacent subcatchments. The spatial and temporal variability of delta H-2, Ca, DOC, AT, pH, SO4, Mg and H4SiO4 of streamflow, groundwater and spring water samples was analysed and related to catchment area and wetland percentage using bivariate and multivariate methods. Our study found that in the six subcatchments, with variable arrangements of landscape units, the inter-and intra catchment variability of isotopic and hydrochemical compositions was small and generally not significant. Stream samples were distinctly different from shallow groundwater. An upper spring zone located near the water divide above 1,400m and a larger wetland were identified by their distinct spatial isotopic and hydrochemical composition. The upstream wetland percentage was not correlated to the hydrochemical streamflow composition, suggesting that wetlands were less connected and act as passive features with a negligible contribution to baseflow runoff. The isotopic and hydrochemical composition of baseflow changed slightly from the upper spring zone towards the subcatchment outlets and corresponded to the signature of deep groundwater. Our results confirm the need and benefits of spatially distributed snapshot sampling to derive process understanding of heterogeneous headwaters during baseflow.
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17. |
- Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al.
(author)
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Pre-event water contributions to runoff events of different magnitude in pre-alpine headwaters
- 2017
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In: HYDROLOGY RESEARCH. - : IWA PUBLISHING. - 1998-9563 .- 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955. ; 48:1, s. 28-47
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Precipitation and catchment characteristics of mountainous headwaters can vary largely within short distances. It remains unclear how these two factors determine the contribution of event water and pre-event water to stormflow. We investigated this in five neighboring headwaters with high annual precipitation amounts (> 2,000 mm y(-1)) in a steep pre-alpine region in Switzerland. Rainfall and streamwater of 13 different rainstorms were sampled (P: 5 mm intervals, Q: 12 to 51 samples per events) to perform a two-component isotope hydrograph separation. Pre-event water contributions based on delta O-18 or delta H-2 computation were similar. The pre-event water contributions of headwaters depended largely on rainfall (amount and intensity) and varied more between events than between catchments, despite clear differences in land cover between the catchments. Furthermore, antecedent wetness was not found to control pre-event water contribution. With increasing rainfall amount, the proportion of rainfall in runoff increased and changed from pre-event to event water dominated. The variable rainfall amount and small active storage (organic soil horizon, 20-50 cm) resulted in a threshold in the upper soil horizon with subsequently more variable pre-event water contribution. Our results show the necessity of sampling in different headwaters and events to better understand controlling factors in runoff generation.
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18. |
- Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al.
(author)
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Spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall in a small headwater catchment and its effect on hydrograph separation
- 2017
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 547, s. 755-769
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Isotope hydrograph separation (IHS) is a valuable tool to study runoff generation processes. To perform an IHS, samples of baseflow (pre-event water) and streamflow are taken at the catchment outlet. For rainfall (event water) either a bulk sample is collected or it is sampled sequentially during the event. For small headwater catchment studies, event water samples are usually taken at only one sampling location in or near the catchment because the spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall is assumed to be small. However, few studies have tested this assumption. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and its effects on IHS results using detailed measurements from a small pre-alpine headwater catchment in Switzerland. Rainfall was sampled sequentially at eight locations across the 4.3 km(2) Zwackentobel catchment and stream water was collected in three subcatchments (0.15, 0.23, and 0.70 km(2)) during ten events. The spatial variability in rainfall amount, average and maximum rainfall intensity and the isotopic composition of rainfall was different for each event. There was no significant relation between the isotopic composition of rainfall and total rainfall amount, rainfall intensity or elevation. For eight of the ten studied events the temporal variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall was larger than the spatial variability in the rainfall isotopic composition. The isotope hydrograph separation results, using only one rain sampler, varied considerably depending on which rain sampler was used to represent the isotopic composition of event water. The calculated minimum pre-event water contributions differed up to 60%. The differences were particularly large for events with a large spatial variability in the isotopic composition of rainfall and a small difference between the event and pre-event water isotopic composition. Our results demonstrate that even in small catchments the spatial variability in the rainfall isotopic composition can be significant and has to be considered for IHS studies. Using data from only one rain sampler can result in significant errors in the estimated pre-event water contributions to streamflow.
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19. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems
- 2017
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In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 53:1, s. 522-534
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.
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20. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Influence of Hydro-Meteorological Data Spatial Aggregation on Streamflow Modelling
- 2016
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 541, s. 1212-1220
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data availability is important for virtually any purpose in hydrology. While some parts of the world continue to be under-monitored, other areas are experiencing an increased availability of high-resolution data. The use of the highest available resolution has always been preferred and many efforts have been made to maximize the information content of data and thus improve its predictive power and reduce the costs of maintenance of hydrometric sensor networks. In the light of ever-increasing data resolution, however, it is important to assess the added value of using the highest resolution available. In this study we present an assessment of the relative importance of hydro-meteorological data resolution for hydrological modelling. We used a case study with high-resolution data availability to investigate the influence of using models calibrated with different levels of spatially aggregated meteorological input data to estimate streamflow for different periods and at different locations. We found site specific variations, but model parameterizations calibrated using sub-catchment specific meteorological input data tended to produce better streamflow estimates, with model efficiency values being up to 0.35 efficiency units higher than those calibrated with catchment averaged meteorological data. We also found that basin characteristics other than catchment area have little effect on the performance of model parameterizations applied in different locations than the calibration site. Finally, we found that using an increased number of discharge data locations has a larger impact on model calibration efficiency than using spatially specific meteorological data. The results of this study contribute to improve the knowledge on assessing data needs for water management in terms of adequate data type and level of spatial aggregation.
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21. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-
(author)
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Information Needs for Water Resource and Risk Management : Hydro-Meteorological Data Value and Non-Traditional Information
- 2016
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Data availability is extremely important for water management. Without data it would not be possible to know how much water is available or how often extreme events are likely to occur. The usually available hydro-meteorological data often have a limited representativeness and are affected by errors and uncertainties. Additionally, their collection is resource-intensive and, thus, many areas of the world are severely under-monitored. Other areas are seeing an unprecedented – yet local – wealth of data in the last decades. Additionally, the spread of new technologies together with the integration of different approaches to water management science and practice have uncovered a large amount of soft information that can potentially complement and expand the possibilities of water management.This thesis presents a series of studies that address data opportunities for water management. Firstly, the hydro-meteorological data needs for correctly estimating key processes for water resource management such as precipitation and discharge were evaluated. Secondly, the use of non-traditional sources of information such as social media and human behaviour to improve the efficiency of flood mitigation actions were explored. The results obtained provide guidelines for determining basic hydro-meteorological data needs. For instance, an upper density of 24 rain gauges per 1000 km2 for spatial precipitation estimation beyond which improvements are negligible was found. Additionally, a larger relative value of discharge data respect to precipitation data for calibrating hydrological models was observed. Regarding non-traditional sources of information, social memory of past flooding events was found to be a relevant factor determining the efficiency of flood early warning systems and therefore their damage mitigation potential. Finally, a new methodology to use social media data for probabilistic estimates of flood extent was put forward and shown to achieve results comparable to traditional approaches.This thesis significantly contributes to integrated water management by improving the understanding of data needs and opportunities of new sources of information thus making water management more efficient and useful for society.
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22. |
- Girons Lopez, Marc, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Location and Density of Rain Gauges for the Estimation of Spatial Varying Precipitation
- 2015
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In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3676 .- 1468-0459. ; 97:1, s. 167-179
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. Although radar and satellite based techniques are becoming increasingly widespread, quantitative precipitation estimates based on point rain gauge measurement interpolation are, and will continue to be in the foreseeable future, widely used. However, the ability to infer spatially distributed data from point measurements is strongly dependent on the number, location and reliability of measurement stations.In this study we quantitatively investigated the effect of rain gauge network configurations on the spatial interpolation by using the operational hydrometeorological sensor network in the Thur river basin in north-eastern Switzerland as a test case. Spatial precipitation based on a combination of radar and rain gauge data provided by MeteoSwiss was assumed to represent the true precipitation values against which the precipitation interpolation from the sensor network was evaluated. The performance using scenarios with both increased and decreased station density were explored. The catchment-average interpolation error indices significantly improve up to a density of 24 rain gauges per 1000 km2, beyond which improvements were negligible. However, a reduced rain gauge density in the higher parts of the catchment resulted in a noticeable decline of the performance indices. An evaluation based on precipitation intensity thresholds indicated a decreasing performance for higher precipitation intensities. The results of this study emphasise the benefits of dense and adequately distributed rain gauge networks.
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23. |
- Hakala, Kirsti, et al.
(author)
-
Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
- 2019
-
In: Encyclopedia of Water. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 9781119300755 - 9781119300762
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hydrological climate change impact modeling is a commonly used approach to quantify potential future changes in streamflow. In this article, we present an introduction to the main steps involved in the production of such streamflow projections. We review commonly used modeling approaches to quantify climate change impacts on water resources, describe the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections and how to characterize them, and discuss best practices. The supplementary material includes a guide to perform typical data processing tasks involved in the production of hydrological projections. We also provide material to support teaching activities related to hydrological climate change impact modeling. The goal of this article is to support studies on climate change impacts on hydrological systems by providing guidance on working with the climate-hydrology modeling chain.
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24. |
- Jenicek, Michal, et al.
(author)
-
Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments
- 2016
-
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 20:2, s. 859-874
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Winter snow accumulation obviously has an effect on the following catchment runoff. The question is, however, how long this effect lasts and how important it is compared to rainfall inputs. Here we investigate the relative importance of snow accumulation on one critical aspect of runoff, namely the summer low flow. This is especially relevant as the expected increase of air temperature might result in decreased snow storage. A decrease of snow will affect soil and ground-water storages during spring and might cause low streamflow values in the subsequent warm season. To understand these potential climate change impacts, a better evaluation of the effects of inter-annual variations in snow accumulation on summer low flow under current conditions is central. The objective in this study was (1) to quantify how long snowmelt affects runoff after melt-out and (2) to estimate the sensitivity of catchments with different elevation ranges to changes in snowpack. To find suitable predictors of summer low flow we used long time series from 14 Alpine and pre-Alpine catchments in Switzerland and computed different variables quantifying winter and spring snow conditions. In general, the results indicated that maximum winter snow water equivalent (SWE) influenced summer low flow, but could expectedly only partly explain the observed inter-annual variations. On average, a decrease of maximum SWE by 10% caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 6-9% in catchments higher than 2000 ma.s.l. This effect was smaller in middle-and lower-elevation catchments with a decrease of minimum discharge by 2-5% per 10% decrease of maxi-mum SWE. For higher-and middle-elevation catchments and years with below-average SWE maximum, the minimum discharge in July decreased to 70-90% of its normal level. Additionally, a reduction in SWE resulted in earlier low-flow occurrence in some cases. One other important factor was the precipitation between maximum SWE and summer low flow. When only dry preceding conditions in this period were considered, the importance of maximum SWE as a predictor of low flows increased. We assessed the sensitivity of individual catchments to the change of maximum SWE using the non-parametric Theil-Sen approach as well as an elasticity index. Both sensitivity indicators increased with increasing mean catchment elevation, indicating a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow accumulation in Alpine catchments compared to lower-elevation pre-Alpine catchments.
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25. |
- Jenicek, Michal, et al.
(author)
-
Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments
- 2018
-
In: Water resources research. - : AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 54:1, s. 538-556
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer.
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26. |
- Karlsen, Reinert Huseby, et al.
(author)
-
Landscape controls on spatiotemporal discharge variability in a boreal catchment
- 2016
-
In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 52:8, s. 6541-6556
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Improving the understanding of how stream flow dynamics are influenced by landscape characteristics, such as soils, vegetation and terrain, is a central endeavor of catchment hydrology. Here we investigate how spatial variability in stream flow is related to landscape characteristics using specific discharge time series from 14 partly nested subcatchments in the Krycklan basin (0.12 - 68 km(2)). Multivariate principal component analyses combined with univariate analyses showed that while variability in landscape characteristics and specific discharge were strongly related, the spatial patterns varied with season and wetness conditions. During spring snowmelt and at the annual scale, specific discharge was positively related to the sum of wetland and lake area. During summer, when flows are lowest, specific discharge was negatively related to catchment tree volume, but positively related to deeper sediment deposits and catchment area. The results indicate how more densely forested areas on till soils become relatively drier during summer months, while wet areas and deeper sediment soils maintain a higher summer base flow. Annual and seasonal differences in specific discharge can therefore be explained to a large extent by expected variability in evapotranspiration fluxes and snow accumulation. These analyses provide an organizing principle for how specific discharge varies spatially across the boreal landscape, and how this variation is manifested for different wetness conditions, seasons and time scales.
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27. |
- Karlsen, Reinert Huseby, 1983-
(author)
-
Spatiotemporal streamflow variability in a boreal landscape : Importance of landscape composition for catchment hydrological functioning
- 2016
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The understanding of how different parts of a landscape contribute to streamflow by storing and releasing water has long been a central issue in hydrology. Knowledge about what controls streamflow dynamics across landscapes can further our understanding of how catchments store and release water, facilitate predictions for ungauged catchments, and improve the management of water quality and resources. This thesis makes use of data from the Krycklan catchment in northern Sweden. Streamflow data from 14 catchments (0.12 - 68 km2) with variable landscape characteristics such as topography, vegetation, wetland cover, glacial till soils and deeper sediment soils were used to investigate spatial patterns and controls on runoff.The differences in specific discharge (discharge per unit catchment area) between nearby catchments were large at the annual scale, and have the same magnitude as predicted effects of a century of climate change or the observed effects of major forestry operations. This variability is important to consider when studying the effects of climate change and land use changes on streamflow, as well as for our understanding of geochemical mass balances. Streamflow from different catchments was strongly related to landscape characteristics. The distribution of wetland areas had a particularly strong influence, with an annual specific discharge 40-80% higher than catchments with high tree volume on till soils. During drier periods, catchments with deeper sediment soils at the lower elevations of Krycklan had a higher base flow compared to both forested till and wetland catchments. This pattern was reversed at high flows. The storages releasing water to streams in downstream sediment areas were able to maintain base flow for longer periods and were less influenced by evapotranspiration compared to the more superficial till and wetland systems.The results of this thesis have led to a better understanding of the landscape wide patterns of streamflow during different seasons and time scales. The strong associations to landscape characteristics and variable spatial patterns with season and antecedent conditions form the basis for a conceptual understanding of the processes and spatial patterns that shape the heterogeneity of streamflow responses in boreal catchments.
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28. |
- Karlsen, Reinert, et al.
(author)
-
The assumption of uniform specific discharge : unsafe at Any time?
- 2016
-
In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 0:21, s. 3978-3988
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nearby catchments in the same landscape are often assumed to have similar specific discharge (runoff per unit catchment area). Five years of streamflow from 14 nested catchments in a 68km(2) landscape was used to test this assumption, with the hypothesis that the spatial variability in specific discharge is smaller than the uncertainties in the measurement. The median spatial variability of specific discharge, defined as subcatchment deviation from the catchment outlet, was 33% at the daily scale. This declined to 24% at a monthly scale and 19% at an annual scale. These specific discharge differences are on the same order of magnitude as predicted for major land-use conversions or a century of climate change. Spatial variability remained when considering uncertainties in specific discharge, and systematic seasonal patterns in specific discharge variation further provide confidence that these differences are more than just errors in the analysis of catchment area, rainfall variability or gauging. Assuming similar specific discharge in nearby catchments can thus lead to spurious conclusions about the effects of disturbance on hydrological and biogeochemical processes.
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29. |
- Karlsen, Reinert, 1983-, et al.
(author)
-
The role of landscape properties, storage and evapotranspiration on variability in streamflow recessions in a boreal catchment
- 2019
-
In: Journal of Hydrology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 570, s. 315-328
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Streamflow recession analysis provides valuable insights into catchment functioning that can be related to runoff generation, storage retention and baseflow dynamics. As an integrated characteristic, recession analysis is particularly useful in catchment comparison studies to help explain drivers of spatial and temporal variability in hydrological behavior. Here, five years of hourly streamflow data from 14, partly nested, catchments within a 68 km(2) boreal forest landscape in Northern Sweden were used to explore spatiotemporal variation in hydrological processes through recession analysis. The aim of this study was to better understand spatial variation in runoff generation and storage-discharge dynamics across the landscape, as well as the relation to landscape properties. Due to high collinearity between variables, partial least square regression was used to quantify the associations between recession characteristics and catchment properties, as well as to identify key variables controlling recession behavior. We analyzed recession characteristics using both an aggregated approach including all recession data and individual recession events. The analyses based on individual recession events, indicated that catchment topography, quantified by indices such as mean slope or elevation above the stream network, is a primary control on the recession behavior during relatively high flows, whereas catchment area gains importance when flows are relatively low. The proportion of sediment and deep soils also controlled recession behavior. Furthermore, we found that recession characteristics are influenced by both evapotranspiration (ET) and proxies of antecedent catchment storage, but that the patterns were different depending on catchment properties. ET was less influential in catchments with deeper soils and larger catchment area. Shifts in recession rates were primarily related to variation in storage, with faster streamflow recessions occurring during periods with low storage. The results demonstrate the influence of catchment properties on recession behavior, and we found great value in analyzing individual recession events for an increased understanding of spatial and temporal recession characteristics. When recession properties were lumped together, the relationships to catchment characteristics were obscured. This indicates the value of more detailed analyses, at least under the strongly seasonal hydroclimatic conditions of this site.
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30. |
- Koutsouris, Alexander, 1983-
(author)
-
Building a coherent hydro-climatic modelling framework for the data limited Kilombero Valley of Tanzania
- 2017
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This thesis explores key aspects for synthesizing data across spatiotemporal scales relevant for water resources management in an Eastern Africa context. Specifically, the potential of large scale global precipitation datasets (GPDs) in data limited regions to overcome spatial and temporal data gaps is considered. The thesis also explores the potential to utilize limited and non-continuous streamflow and stream water chemistry observations to increase hydrological process understanding. The information gained is then used to build a coherent hydro-climatic framework for streamflow modelling. In this thesis, Kilombero Valley Drainage Basin (KVDB) in Tanzania is used as an example of a data limited region targeted for rapid development, intensification and expansion of agriculture. As such, it is representative for many regions across the Eastern Africa. With regards to the data synthesis, two satellite products, three reanalysis products and three interpolated products were evaluated based on their spatial and temporal precipitation patterns. Streamflow data from KVDB and eight subcatchments were then assessed for quality with regards to missing data. Furthermore, recession analysis was used to estimate catchment-scale characteristic drainage timescale. Results from these streamflow analyses, in conjunction with a hydrological tracer-based analysis, were then used for improved understanding of streamflow generation in the region. Finally, a coherent modelling framework using the HBV rainfall-runoff model was implemented and evaluated based on daily streamflow simulation. Despite the challenges of data limited regions and the often large uncertainty in results, this thesis demonstrates that improved process understanding could be obtained from limited streamflow records and a focused hydrochemical sampling when experimental design natural variability were leveraged to gain a large signal to noise ratio. Combining results across all investigations rendered information useful for the conceptualization and implementation of the hydro-climatic modelling framework relevant in Kilombero Valley. For example, when synthesized into a coherent framework the GPDs could be downscaled and used for daily streamflow simulations at the catchment scale with moderate success. This is promising when considering the need for estimating impacts of potential future land use and climate change as well as agricultural intensification.
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31. |
- Koutsouris, Alexander J., et al.
(author)
-
Utilization of Global Precipitation Datasets in Data Limited Regions : A Case Study of Kilombero Valley, Tanzania
- 2017
-
In: Atmosphere. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4433. ; 8:12
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study explored the potential for bias correction of global precipitation datasets (GPD) to support streamflow simulation for water resource management in data limited regions. Two catchments, 580 km(2) and 2530 km(2), in the Kilombero Valley of central Tanzania were considered as case studies to explore three GPD bias correction methods: quantile mapping (QM), daily percentages (DP) and a model based (ModB) bias correction. The GPDs considered included two satellite rainfall products, three reanalysis products and three interpolated observed data products. The rainfall-runoff model HBV was used to simulate streamflow in the two catchments using (1) observed rain gauge data; (2) the original GPDs and (3) the bias-corrected GPDs as input. Results showed that applying QM to bias correction based on limited observed data tends to aggravate streamflow simulations relative to not bias correcting GPDs. This is likely due to a potential lack of representativeness of a single rain gauge observation at the scale of a hydrological catchment for these catchments. The results also indicate that there may be potential benefits in combining streamflow and rain gauge data to bias correct GPDs during the model calibration process within a hydrological modeling framework.
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32. |
- Pool, Sandra, et al.
(author)
-
Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series importance of calibration criteria selection
- 2017
-
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 21:11, s. 5443-5457
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV-Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenavdelning-model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.
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33. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(author)
-
Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events
- 2019
-
In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - Oxon : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:5, s. 842-853
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.
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34. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(author)
-
Sub-daily runoff predictions using parameters calibrated on the basis of data with a daily temporal resolution
- 2017
-
In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 550, s. 399-411
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Concentration times in small and medium-sized basins (similar to 10-1000 km(2)) are commonly less than 24 h. Flood-forecasting models are thus required to provide simulations at high temporal resolutions (1 h-6 h), although time-series of input and runoff data with sufficient lengths are often only available at the daily temporal resolution, especially in developing countries. This has led to study the relationships of estimated parameter values at the temporal resolutions where they are needed from the temporal resolutions where they are available. This study presents a methodology to treat empirically model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data in two small basins using a bucket-type hydrological model, HBV-light, and the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation approach for selecting its parameters. To avoid artefacts due to the numerical resolution or numerical method of the differential equations within the model, the model was consistently run using modelling time steps of one-hour regardless of the temporal resolution of the rainfall-runoff data. The distribution of the parameters calibrated at several temporal resolutions in the two basins did not show model parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data and the direct transferability of calibrated parameter sets (e.g., daily) for runoff simulations at other temporal resolutions for which they were not calibrated (e.g., 3 h or 6 h) resulted in a moderate (if any) decrease in model performance, in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe and volume-error efficiencies. The results of this study indicate that if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible with model-parameter values calibrated from long time series of daily data. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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35. |
- Reynolds, J. Eduardo, et al.
(author)
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Definitions of climatological and discharge days : do they matter in hydrological modelling?
- 2018
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63:5, s. 836-844
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The performance of hydrological models is affected by uncertainty related to observed climatological and discharge data. Although the latter has been widely investigated, the effects on hydrological models from different starting times of the day have received little interest. In this study, observational data from one tropical basin were used to investigate the effects on a typical bucket-type hydrological model, the HBV, when the definitions of the climatological and discharge days are changed. An optimization procedure based on a genetic algorithm was used to assess the effects on model performance. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies varied considerably between day definitions, with the largest dependence on the climatological-day definition. The variation was likely caused by how storm water was assigned to one or two daily rainfall values depending on the definition of the climatological day. Hydrological models are unlikely to predict high flows accurately if rainfall intensities are reduced because of the day definition.
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36. |
- Reynolds Puga, José Eduardo, 1982-
(author)
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Flood Prediction in data-scarce basins : Maximising the value of limited hydro-meteorological data
- 2019
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Floods pose a threat to society that can cause large socio-economic damages and loss of life in many parts of the world. Flood-forecasting models are required to provide simulations at temporal resolutions higher than a day in basins with concentration times smaller than 24 h. However, data at such resolutions are commonly limited or not available, especially in developing or low-income countries. This thesis covers issues related to the scarcity and lack of high temporal-resolution hydro-meteorological data and explores methods where the value of existing data is maximised to improve flood prediction.By varying the starting time of daily records (the day definition), it was shown that this definition had large implications on model calibration and runoff simulation and therefore, should be considered in regionalisation and flood-forecasting applications. A method was developed to treat empirically model-parameter dependencies on the temporal resolution of data. Model parameters seemed to become independent of the temporal resolution of data when the modelling time-step was sufficiently small. Thus, if sub-daily forcing data can be secured, flood forecasting in basins with sub-daily concentration times may be possible using model-parameter values calibrated from time series of daily data. A new calibration method using only a few event hydrographs could improve flood prediction compared to a scenario with no discharge data. Two event hydrographs may be sufficient for calibration, but accuracy and reduction in uncertainty may improve if data on more events can be acquired. Using flood events above a threshold with a high frequency of occurrence for calibration may be as useful for flood prediction as using only extreme events with a low frequency of occurrence. The accuracy of the rainfall forecasts strongly influenced the predictive performance of a flood model calibrated with limited discharge data. Between volume and duration errors of the rainfall forecast, the former had the larger impact on model performance.The methods previously described proved to be useful for predicting floods and are expected to support flood-risk assessment and decision making during the occurrence of floods in data-scarce regions. Further studies using more models and basins are required to test the generality of these results.
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37. |
- Rinderer, Michael, et al.
(author)
-
Is groundwater response timing in a pre-alpine catchment controlled more by topography or by rainfall?
- 2016
-
In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 30:7, s. 1036-1051
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Groundwater levels in steep headwater catchments typically respond quickly to rainfall, but the timing of the response may vary spatially across the catchment. In this study, we investigated the topographic controls and the effects of rainfall and antecedent conditions on the groundwater response timing for 51 groundwater monitoring sites in a 20-ha pre-alpine catchment with low permeability soils. The median time to rise and median duration of recession for the 133 rainfall events were highly correlated to the topographic characteristics of the site and its upslope contributing area. The median time to rise depended more on the topographic characteristics than on the rainfall characteristics or antecedent soil wetness conditions. The median time to rise decreased with Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) for sites with TWI<6 and was almost constant for sites with a higher TWI. The slope of this relation was a function of rainfall intensity. The rainfall threshold for groundwater initiation was also a function of TWI and allowed extrapolation of point measurements to the catchment scale. The median lag time between the rainfall centroid and the groundwater peak was 75min. The groundwater level peaked before peak streamflow at the catchment outlet for half of the groundwater monitoring sites, but only by 15 to 25min. The stronger correlations between topographic indices and groundwater response timing in this study compared to previous studies suggest that surface topography affects the groundwater response timing in catchments with low permeability soils more than in catchments with more transmissive soils.
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38. |
- Rinderer, M., et al.
(author)
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Qualitative soil moisture assessment in semi-arid Africa - the role of experience and training on inter-rater reliability
- 2015
-
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 19:8, s. 3505-3516
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Soil and water management is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions to enhance agricultural productivity. During periods of water scarcity, soil moisture differences are important indicators of the soil water deficit and are traditionally used for allocating water resources among farmers of a village community. Here we present a simple, inexpensive soil wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators which one can see or touch on the soil surface. It incorporates the local farmers' knowledge on the best soil moisture conditions for seeding and brick making in the semi-arid environment of the study site near Arusha, Tanzania. The scheme was tested twice in 2014 with farmers, students and experts (April: 40 persons, June: 25 persons) for inter-rater reliability, bias of individuals and functional relation between qualitative and quantitative soil moisture values. During the test in April farmers assigned the same wetness class in 46% of all cases, while students and experts agreed on about 60% of all cases. Students who had been trained in how to apply the method gained higher inter-rater reliability than their colleagues with only a basic introduction. When repeating the test in June, participants were given improved instructions, organized in small subgroups, which resulted in a higher inter-rater reliability among farmers. In 66% of all classifications, farmers assigned the same wetness class and the spread of class assignments was smaller. This study demonstrates that a wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators is a robust tool and can be applied successfully regardless of experience in crop growing and education level when an in-depth introduction and training is provided. The use of a simple and clear layout of the assessment form is important for reliable wetness class assignments.
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39. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Accuracy of crowdsourced streamflow and stream level class estimates
- 2019
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65, s. 823–841-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Streamflow data are important for river management and the calibration of hydrological models. However, such data are only available for gauged catchments. Citizen science offers an alternative data source, and can be used to estimate streamflow at ungauged sites. We evaluated the accuracy of crowdsourced streamflow estimates for 10 streams in Switzerland by asking citizens to estimate streamflow either directly, or based on the estimated width, depth and velocity of the stream. Additionally, we asked them to estimate the stream level class by comparing the current stream level with a picture that included a virtual staff gauge. To compare the different estimates, the stream level class estimates were converted into streamflow. The results indicate that stream level classes were estimated more accurately than streamflow, and more accurately represented high and low flow conditions. Based on this result, we suggest that citizen science projects focus on stream level class estimates instead of streamflow estimates.
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40. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments
- 2019
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 23, s. 1339-1354
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Alpine catchments show a high sensitivity to climate variation as they include the elevation range of the snow line. Therefore, the correct representation of climate variables and their interdependence is crucial when describing or predicting hydrological processes. When using climate model simulations in hydrological impact studies, forcing meteorological data are usually downscaled and bias corrected, most often by univariate approaches such as quantile mapping of individual variables, neglecting the relationships that exist between climate variables. In this study we test the hypothesis that the explicit consideration of the relation between air temperature and precipitation will affect hydrological impact modelling in a snow-dominated mountain environment. Glacio-hydrological simulations were performed for two partly glacierized alpine catchments using a recently developed multivariate bias correction method to post-process EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs between 1976 and 2099. These simulations were compared to those obtained by using the common univariate quantile mapping for bias correction. As both methods correct each climate variable's distribution in the same way, the marginal distributions of the individual variables show no differences. Yet, regarding the interdependence of precipitation and air temperature, clear differences are notable in the studied catchments. Simultaneous correction based on the multivariate approach led to more precipitation below air temperatures of 0 degrees C and therefore more simulated snowfall than with the data of the univariate approach. This difference translated to considerable consequences for the hydrological responses of the catchments. The multivariate biascorrection-forced simulations showed distinctly different results for projected snow cover characteristics, snowmelt-driven streamflow components, and expected glacier disappearance dates. In all aspects - the fraction of precipitation above and below 0 degrees C, the simulated snow water equivalents, glacier volumes, and the streamflow regime - simulations resulting from the multivariate-corrected data corresponded better with reference data than the results of univariate bias correction. Differences in simulated total streamflow due to the different bias correction approaches may be considered negligible given the generally large spread of the projections, but systematic differences in the seasonally delayed streamflow components from snowmelt in particular will matter from a planning perspective. While this study does not allow conclusive evidence that multivariate bias correction approaches are generally preferable, it clearly demonstrates that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relationships between air temperature and precipitation data can impact the conclusions drawn in hydrological climate change impact studies in snow-dominated environments.
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41. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Evaluating model performance: towards a non-parametric variant of the Kling-Gupta efficiency
- 2018
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 63, s. 1941-1953
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Goodness-of-fit measures are important for an objective evaluation of runoff model performance. The Kling-Gupta efficiency (R-KG), which has been introduced as an improvement of the widely used Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, considers different types of model errors, namely the error in the mean, the variability, and the dynamics. The calculation of R-KG is implicitly based on the assumptions of data linearity, data normality, and the absence of outliers. In this study, we propose a modification of R-KG as an efficiency measure comprising non-parametric components, i.e. the Spearman rank correlation and the normalized flow-duration curve. The performances of model simulations for 100 catchments using the new measure were compared to those obtained using R-KG based on a number of statistical metrics and hydrological signatures. The new measure resulted overall in better or comparable model performances, and thus it was concluded that efficiency measures with non-parametric components provide a suitable alternative to commonly used measures.
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42. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Expansion and contraction of the flowing stream network alter hillslope flowpath lengths and the shape of the travel time distribution
- 2019
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 23, s. 4825-4834
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Flowing stream networks dynamically extend and retract, both seasonally and in response to precipitation events. These network dynamics can dramatically alter the drainage density and thus the length of subsurface flow pathways to flowing streams. We mapped flowing stream networks in a small Swiss headwater catchment during different wetness conditions and estimated their effects on the distribution of travel times to the catchment outlet. For each point in the catchment, we determined the subsurface transport distance to the flowing stream based on the surface topography and determined the surface transport distance along the flowing stream to the outlet. We combined the distributions of these travel distances with assumed surface and subsurface flow velocities to estimate the distribution of travel times to the outlet. These calculations show that the extension and retraction of the stream network can substantially change the mean travel time and the shape of the travel time distribution. During wet conditions with a fully extended flowing stream network, the travel time distribution was strongly skewed to short travel times, but as the network retracted during dry conditions, the distribution of the travel times became more uniform. Stream network dynamics are widely ignored in catchment models, but our results show that they need to be taken into account when modeling solute transport and interpreting travel time distributions.
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43. |
- Seibert, Jan, et al.
(author)
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Gauging the Ungauged Basin : Relative Value of Soft and Hard Data
- 2015
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In: Journal of hydrologic engineering. - 1084-0699 .- 1943-5584. ; 20:1, s. A4014004-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The long-standing issue of hydrological predictions in ungauged basins has received increased attention due to the recent International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB). Since the outset of PUB, many have noted that the best way to confront an ungauged basin is to first make some basic streamflow measurements. This study explores the value of a rudimentary gauging campaign for making predictions in an ungauged basin. The well-studied Maimai watershed in New Zealand was used as a hypothetical ungauged basin, and this study was designed to start with no runoff data and add iteratively different subsets of the available data to constrain the calibration of a simple three-reservoir conceptual catchment model. These subsets included single runoff events or a limited number of point values-in other words, what could be measured with limited, campaign-like field efforts in an ungauged basin. In addition, different types of soft data were explored to constrain the model calibration. Model simulations were validated using the available runoff data from different years. It was found that surprisingly little runoff data were necessary to derive model parameterizations that provided good results for the validation periods, especially when these runoff data were combined with soft data. The relative value of soft data increased with decreasing amount of streamflow data. The findings from the Maimai watershed suggest that, when starting with no flow information, one event or 10 observations during high flow provide almost as much information as three months of continuously measured streamflow for constraining the calibration of a simple catchment model.
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44. |
- Seibert, Jan, et al.
(author)
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How informative are stream level observations in different geographic regions?
- 2016
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 30:14, s. 2498-2508
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Simple runoff models with a low number of model parameters are generally able to simulate catchment runoff reasonably well, but they rely on model calibration, which makes their use in ungauged basins challenging. In a previous study it has been shown that a limited number of streamflow measurements can be quite informative for constraining runoff models. In practice, however, instead of performing such repeated flow measurements, it might be easier to install a stream level logger. Here, a dataset of 600+ gauged basins in the USA was used to study how well models perform when only stream level data, rather than streamflow data, are available. A runoff model (the HBV model) was calibrated assuming that only stream level observations were available, and the simulations were evaluated on the full observed streamflow record. The results indicate that stream level data alone can already provide surprisingly good model simulation results in humid catchments, whereas in arid catchments some form of quantitative information (e.g. a streamflow observation or a regional average value) is needed to obtain good results. These results are encouraging for hydrological observations in data scarce regions as level observations are much easier to obtain than streamflow measurements. Based on runoff modelling, it might even be possible to derive streamflow time series from the level data obtained from loggers, satellites or community-based approaches.
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45. |
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46. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Hydrological Modeling to Evaluate Climate Model Simulations and Their Bias Correction
- 2018
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In: Journal of Hydrometeorology. - 1525-755X .- 1525-7541. ; 19, s. 1321-1337
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Variables simulated by climate models are usually evaluated independently. Yet, climate change impacts often stem from the combined effect of these variables, making the evaluation of intervariable relationships essential. These relationships can be evaluated in a statistical framework (e.g., using correlation coefficients), but this does not test whether complex processes driven by nonlinear relationships are correctly represented. To overcome this limitation, we propose to evaluate climate model simulations in a more process-oriented framework using hydrological modeling. Our modeling chain consists of 12 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX) forced by five general circulation models (GCMs), eight Swiss catchments, 10 optimized parameter sets for the hydrological model Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), and one bias correction method [quantile mapping (QM)]. We used seven discharge metrics to explore the representation of different hydrological processes under current climate. Specific combinations of biases in GCM-RCM simulations can lead to significant biases in simulated discharge (e.g., excessive precipitation in the winter months combined with a cold temperature bias). Other biases, such as exaggerated snow accumulation, do not necessarily impact temperature over the historical period to the point where discharge is affected. Our results confirm the importance of bias correction; when all catchments, GCM-RCMs, and discharge metrics were considered, QM improved discharge simulations in the vast majority of all cases. Additionally, we present a ranking of climate models according to their hydrological performance. Ranking GCM-RCMs is most meaningful prior to bias correction since QM reduces differences between GCM-RCM-driven hydrological simulations. Overall, this work introduces a multivariate assessment method of GCM-RCMs, which enables a more process-oriented evaluation of their simulations.
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47. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model
- 2018
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 22, s. 2211-2224
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Delta h parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Delta h parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.
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48. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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The CrowdWater game: A playful way to improve the accuracy of crowdsourced water level class data
- 2019
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Data quality control is important for any data collection program, especially in citizen science projects, where it is more likely that errors occur due to the human factor. Ideally, data quality control in citizen science projects is also crowdsourced so that it can handle large amounts of data. Here we present the CrowdWater game as a gamified method to check crowdsourced water level class data that are submitted by citizen scientists through the CrowdWater app. The app uses a virtual staff gauge approach, which means that a digital scale is added to the first picture taken at a site and this scale is used for water level class observations at different times. In the game, participants classify water levels based on the comparison of the new picture with the picture containing the virtual staff gauge. By March 2019, 153 people had played the CrowdWater game and 841 pictures were classified. The average water level for the game votes for the classified pictures was compared to the water level class submitted through the app to determine whether the game can improve the quality of the data submitted through the app. For about 70% of the classified pictures, the water level class was the same for the CrowdWater app and game. For a quarter of the classified pictures, there was disagreement between the value submitted through the app and the average game vote. Expert judgement suggests that for three quarters of these cases, the game based average value was correct. The initial results indicate that the CrowdWater game helps to identify erroneous water level class observations from the CrowdWater app and provides a useful approach for crowdsourced data quality control. This study thus demonstrates the potential of gamified approaches for data quality control in citizen science projects.
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49. |
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50. |
- Seibert, Jan
(author)
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Value of a Limited Number of Discharge Observations for Improving Regionalization: A Large-Sample Study Across the United States
- 2019
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In: Water Resources Research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 55, s. 363-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Even in regions considered as densely monitored, most catchments are actually ungauged. Prediction of discharge in ungauged catchments commonly relies on parameter regionalization. While ungauged catchments lack continuous discharge time series, a limited number of observations could still be collected within short field campaigns. Here we analyze the value of such observations for improving parameter regionalization in otherwise ungauged catchments. More specifically, we propose an ensemble modeling approach, where discharge predictions from regionalization with multiple donor catchments are weighted based on the fit between predicted and observed discharge on the dates of the available observations. It was assumed that a total of 3 to 24 observations from a single hydrological year were available as an additional source of information for regionalization. This informed regionalization approach was tested with discharge observations from 10 different hydrological years in a leave-one-out cross validation scheme on 579 catchments in the United States using the HBV runoff model. Discharge observations helped to improve the regionalization in up to 94% of the study catchments in 8 out of 10 discharge sampling years. Sampling years characterized by exceptionally high peak discharge, or high annual or winter precipitation were less informative for regionalization. In the least informative years, model efficiency increased with an increasing number of observations. In contrast, in the most informative sampling year, 3 discharge observations provided as much information for regionalization as 24 discharge observations. Overall, discharge observations were most effective in informing regionalization in arid catchments, snow-dominated catchments, and winter-precipitation-dominated catchments.
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