1. |
|
|
2. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
-
Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
-
In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
|
|
3. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Adiposity, mediating biomarkers and risk of colon cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study
- 2014
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 134:3, s. 612-621
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Adiposity is a risk factor for colon cancer, but underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We evaluated the extent to which 11 biomarkers with inflammatory and metabolic actions mediate the association of adiposity measures, waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI), with colon cancer in men and women. We analyzed data from a prospective nested case-control study among 662 incident colon cancer cases matched within risk sets to 662 controls. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. The percent effect change and corresponding CIs were estimated after adjusting for biomarkers shown to be associated with colon cancer risk. After multivariable adjustment, WC was associated with colon cancer risk in men (top vs. bottom tertile RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.06-2.65; ptrend = 0.02) and in women (RR 1.67, 95% CI 1.09-2.56; ptrend = 0.03). BMI was associated with risk only in men. The association of WC with colon cancer was accounted mostly for by three biomarkers, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-molecular-weight adiponectin and soluble leptin receptor, which in combination explained 46% (95% CI 37-57%) of the association in men and 50% (95% CI 40-65%) of the association in women. Similar results were observed for the associations with BMI in men. These data suggest that alterations in levels of these metabolic biomarkers may represent a primary mechanism of action in the relation of adiposity with colon cancer. Further studies are warranted to determine whether altering their concentrations may reduce colon cancer risk.
|
|
4. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Biomarker patterns of inflammatory and metabolic pathways are associated with risk of colorectal cancer : results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
- 2014
-
In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 29:4, s. 261-275
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A number of biomarkers of inflammatory and metabolic pathways are individually related to higher risk of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the association between biomarker patterns and CRC incidence has not been previously evaluated. Our study investigates the association of biomarker patterns with CRC in a prospective nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). During median follow-up time of 7.0 (3.7-9.4) years, 1,260 incident CRC cases occurred and were matched to 1,260 controls using risk-set sampling. Pre-diagnostic measurements of C-peptide, glycated hemoglobin, triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), C-reactive protein (CRP), reactive oxygen metabolites (ROM), insulin-like growth factor 1, adiponectin, leptin and soluble leptin receptor (sOB-R) were used to derive biomarker patterns from principal component analysis (PCA). The relation with CRC incidence was assessed using conditional logistic regression models. We identified four biomarker patterns 'HDL-C/Adiponectin fractions', 'ROM/CRP', 'TG/C-peptide' and 'leptin/sOB-R' to explain 60 % of the overall biomarker variance. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, the 'HDL-C/Adiponectin fractions', 'ROM/CRP' and 'leptin/sOB-R' patterns were associated with CRC risk [for the highest quartile vs the lowest, incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.69, 95 % CI 0.51-0.93, P-trend = 0.01; IRR = 1.70, 95 % CI 1.30-2.23, P-trend = 0.002; and IRR = 0.79, 95 % CI 0.58-1.07; P-trend = 0.05, respectively]. In contrast, the 'TG/C-peptide' pattern was not associated with CRC risk (IRR = 0.75, 95 % CI 0.56-1.00, P-trend = 0.24). After cases within the first 2 follow-up years were excluded, the 'ROM/CRP' pattern was no longer associated with CRC risk, suggesting potential influence of preclinical disease on these associations. By application of PCA, the study identified 'HDL-C/Adiponectin fractions', 'ROM/CRP' and 'leptin/sOB-R' as biomarker patterns representing potentially important pathways for CRC development.
|
|
5. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Circulating C-reactive protein concentrations and risks of colon and rectal cancer : a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2010
-
In: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 172:4, s. 407-418
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The authors investigated associations between serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations and colon and rectal cancer risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (1992-2003) among 1,096 incident cases and 1,096 controls selected using risk-set sampling and matched on study center, age, sex, time of blood collection, fasting status, menopausal status, menstrual cycle phase, and hormone replacement therapy. In conditional logistic regression with adjustment for education, smoking, nutritional factors, body mass index, and waist circumference, CRP showed a significant nonlinear association with colon cancer risk but not rectal cancer risk. Multivariable-adjusted relative risks for CRP concentrations of > or = 3.0 mg/L versus <1.0 mg/L were 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.85; P-trend = 0.01) for colon cancer and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.57; P-trend = 0.65) for rectal cancer. Colon cancer risk was significantly increased in men (relative risk = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.73; P-trend = 0.01) but not in women (relative risk = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.67, 1.68; P-trend = 0.13). Additional adjustment for C-peptide, glycated hemoglobin, and high density lipoprotein cholesterol did not attenuate these results. These data provide evidence that elevated CRP concentrations are related to a higher risk of colon cancer but not rectal cancer, predominantly among men and independently of obesity, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia.
|
|
6. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Combined impact of healthy lifestyle factors on colorectal cancer : a large European cohort study
- 2014
-
In: BMC Medicine. - : BioMed Central. - 1741-7015. ; 12:1, s. 168-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Excess body weight, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and certain dietary factors are individually related to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, little is known about their joint effects. The aim of this study was to develop a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) composed of five potentially modifiable lifestyle factors - healthy weight, physical activity, non-smoking, limited alcohol consumption and a healthy diet, and to explore the association of this index with CRC incidence using data collected within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS: In the EPIC cohort, a total of 347,237 men and women, 25- to 70-years old, provided dietary and lifestyle information at study baseline (1992 to 2000). Over a median follow-up time of 12 years, 3,759 incident CRC cases were identified. The association between a HLI and CRC risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models and population attributable risks (PARs) have been calculated. RESULTS: After accounting for study centre, age, sex and education, compared with 0 or 1 healthy lifestyle factors, the hazard ratio (HR) for CRC was 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.44 to 0.77) for two factors, 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.89) for three factors, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.75) for four factors and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.74) for five factors; P-trend <0.0001. The associations were present for both colon and rectal cancers, HRs, 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50 to 0.74; P for trend <0.0001) for colon cancer and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.88; P-trend <0.0001) for rectal cancer, respectively (P-difference by cancer sub-site = 0.10). Overall, 16% of the new CRC cases (22% in men and 11% in women) were attributable to not adhering to a combination of all five healthy lifestyle behaviours included in the index. CONCLUSIONS: Combined lifestyle factors are associated with a lower incidence of CRC in European populations characterized by western lifestyles. Prevention strategies considering complex targeting of multiple lifestyle factors may provide practical means for improved CRC prevention.
|
|
7. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers and risk of liver and bilary tract cancer
- 2014
-
In: Hepatology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 60:3, s. 858-871
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Obesity and associated metabolic disorders have been implicated in liver carcinogenesis; however there is little data on the role of obesity-related biomarkers on liver cancer risk. We studied prospectively the association of inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers with risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), intra-hepatic bile duct (IBD) and gallbladder and bilary tract cancers outside of the liver (GBTC) in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Over an average of 7.7 years, 296 participants developed HCC (n=125), GBTC (n=137) or IBD (n=34). Using risk set sampling, controls were selected in a 2:1 ratio and matched for recruitment center, age, sex, fasting status, time of blood collection. Baseline serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-peptide, total, high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin, leptin, fetuin-a, and glutamatdehydrogenase (GLDH) were measured and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI-s) estimated using conditional logistic regression. After adjustment for lifestyle factors, diabetes, hepatitis infection and adiposity measures, higher concentrations of CRP, IL-6, C-peptide and non-HMW adiponectin were associated with higher risk of HCC (IRR per doubling of concentrations = 1.22; 95%CI = 1.02-1.46, P=0.03; 1.90; 95%CI = 1.30-2.77, P=0.001; 2.25; 95%CI = 1.43-3.54, P=0.0005 and 2.09; 95%CI = 1.19-3.67, P=0.01, respectively). CRP was associated also with risk of GBTC (IRR = 1.22; 95%CI = 1.05-1.42, P=0.01). GLDH was associated with risks of HCC (IRR = 1.62; 95%CI = 1.25-2.11, P=0.0003) and IBD (IRR = 10.5; 95%CI = 2.20-50.90, P=0.003). The continuous net reclassification index was 0.63 for CRP, IL-6, C-peptide and non-HMW adiponectin, and 0.46 for GLDH indicating good predictive ability of these biomarkers. Conclusion: Elevated levels of biomarkers of inflammation and hyperinsulinemia are associated with a higher risk of HCC, independent of obesity and established liver cancer risk factors.
|
|
8. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Leptin and soluble leptin receptor in risk of colorectal cancer in the European prospective investigation into Cancer and nutrition cohort
- 2012
-
In: Cancer Research. - Philadelphia, USA : American Association for Cancer Research. - 0008-5472 .- 1538-7445. ; 72:20, s. 5328-5337
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Leptin, a peptide hormone produced primarily by the adipocytes, is hypothesized to play a role in the pathogenesis of colorectal cancer (CRC). Soluble leptin receptor (sOB-R) may regulate leptin's physiologic functions; however its relation to CRC risk is unknown. This study explored the association of leptin and sOB-R with risk of CRC in a prospective nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A total of 1,129 incident CRC cases (713 colon, 416 rectal) were matched within risk sets to 1,129 controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). After multivariable adjustment including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and baseline leptin concentrations, sOB-R was strongly inversely associated with CRC (RR comparing the highest quintile vs. the lowest, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.40-0.76; P-trend = 0.0004) and colon cancer (RR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.28-0.63, P-trend = 0.0001); whereas no association was seen for rectal cancer (RR adjusted for BMI and waist circumference, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.48-1.44, P-trend = 0.38). In contrast, leptin was not associated with risk of CRC (RR adjusted for BMI and waist circumference, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.56-1.29, P-trend = 0.23). Additional adjustments for circulating metabolic biomarkers did not attenuate these results. These novel findings suggest a strong inverse association between circulating sOB-R and CRC risk, independent of obesity measures, leptin concentrations, and other metabolic biomarkers. Further research is needed to confirm the potentially important role of sOB-R in CRC pathogenesis. Cancer Res; 72(20); 5328-37. (C) 2012 AACR.
|
|
9. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Metabolic syndrome and risks of colon and rectal cancer : the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study.
- 2011
-
In: Cancer prevention research (Philadelphia, Pa.). - 1940-6215. ; 4:11, s. 1873-83
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is purportedly related to risk of developing colorectal cancer; however, the association of MetS, as defined according to recent international criteria, and colorectal cancer has not been yet evaluated. In particular, it remains unclear to what extent the MetS components individually account for such an association. We addressed these issues in a nested case-control study that included 1,093 incident cases matched (1:1) to controls by using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% CIs. MetS was defined according to the criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATPIII), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and the 2009 harmonized definition. Among individual components, abdominal obesity (RR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.16-1.96) was associated with colon cancer, whereas abnormal glucose metabolism was associated with both colon (RR = 2.05; 95% CI: 1.57-2.68) and rectal cancer (RR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.45-2.96). MetS, as defined by each of the definitions, was similarly associated with colon cancer (e.g., RR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.47-2.42 for MetS by NCEP/ATPIII), whereas MetS by NCEP/ATPIII, but not IDF or harmonized definition, was associated with rectal cancer (RR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.02-2.06). Overall, these associations were stronger in women than in men. However, the association between MetS and colorectal cancer was accounted for by abdominal obesity and abnormal glucose metabolism such that MetS did not provide risk information beyond these components (likelihood ratio test P = 0.10 for MetS by NCEP/ATPIII). These data suggest that simple assessment of abnormal glucose metabolism and/or abdominal obesity to identify individuals at colorectal cancer risk may have higher clinical utility than applying more complex MetS definitions. Cancer Prev Res; 4(11); 1873-83. ©2011 AACR.
|
|
10. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Physical activity, mediating factors and risk of colon cancer : insights into adiposity and circulating biomarkers from the EPIC cohort
- 2017
-
In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 46:6, s. 1823-1835
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is convincing evidence that high physical activity lowers the risk of colon cancer; however, the underlying biological mechanisms remain largely unknown. We aimed to determine the extent to which body fatness and biomarkers of various biologically plausible pathways account for the association between physical activity and colon cancer. We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of 519 978 men and women aged 25 to 70 years followed from 1992 to 2003. A total of 713 incident colon cancer cases were matched, using risk-set sampling, to 713 controls on age, sex, study centre, fasting status and hormonal therapy use. The amount of total physical activity during the past year was expressed in metabolic equivalent of task [MET]-h/week. Anthropometric measurements and blood samples were collected at study baseline. High physical activity was associated with a lower risk of colon cancer: relative risk a parts per thousand91 MET-h/week vs < 91 MET-h/week = 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 to 0.96]. In mediation analyses, this association was accounted for by waist circumference: proportion explained effect (PEE) = 17%; CI: 4% to 52%; and the biomarkers soluble leptin receptor (sOB-R): PEE = 15%; 95% CI: 1% to 50% and 5-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D): PEE = 30%; 95% CI: 12% to 88%. In combination, these factors explained 45% (95% CI: 20% to 125%) of the association. Beyond waist circumference, sOB-R and 25[OH]D additionally explained 10% (95% CI: 1%; 56%) and 23% (95% CI: 6%; 111%) of the association, respectively. Promoting physical activity, particularly outdoors, and maintaining metabolic health and adequate vitamin D levels could represent a promising strategy for colon cancer prevention.
|
|
11. |
- Aleksandrova, Krasimira, et al.
(author)
-
Total and high-molecular-weight adiponectin and risk of colorectal cancer : the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study
- 2012
-
In: Carcinogenesis. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0143-3334 .- 1460-2180. ; 33:6, s. 1211-1218
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Adiponectin - an adipose-tissue-derived protein may provide a molecular link between obesity and colorectal cancer (CRC), but evidence from large prospective studies is limited. In particular, no epidemiological study explored high-molecular-weight (HMW) and non-HMW adiponectin fractions in relation to CRC risk, despite they were hypothesised to have differential biological activities, i.e. regulating insulin sensitivity (HMW-adiponectin) versus inflammatory response (non-HMW-adiponectin). In a prospective nested case-control study we investigated whether pre-diagnostic serum concentrations of total, HMW and non-HMW-adiponectin are associated with risk of CRC, independent of obesity and other known CRC risk factors. A total of 1206 incident cases (755 colon, 451 rectal) were matched to 1206 controls using incidence density sampling. In conditional logistic regression, adjusted for dietary and lifestyle factors, total adiponectin and non-HMW-adiponectin concentrations were inversely associated with risk of CRC [relative risk (RR) comparing highest versus lowest quintile = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.53-0.95, P (trend)=0.03 for total adiponectin and 0.45, 95%CI=0.34-0.61, P (trend)<0.0001 for non-HMW-adiponectin]. HMW-adiponectin concentrations were not associated with CRC risk (RR=0.91, 95%CI=0.68-1.22, P (trend)=0.55). Non-HMW-adiponectin was associated with CRC risk even after adjustment for body mass index and waist circumference (RR=0.39, 95%CI=0.26-0.60, P (trend)<0.0001); whereas the association with total adiponectin was no longer significant (RR=0.81, 95%CI=0.60-1.09, P (trend)=0.23). When stratified by cancer site, non-HMW-adiponectin was inversely associated with both colon and rectal cancer. These findings suggest an important role of the relative proportion of non-HMW-adiponectin in CRC pathogenesis. Future studies are warranted to confirm these results and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.
|
|
12. |
- Armstrong, Ben, et al.
(author)
-
The Role of Humidity in Associations of High Temperature with Mortality : A Multicountry, Multicity Study
- 2019
-
In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 127:9
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: There is strong experimental evidence that physiologic stress from high temperatures is greater if humidity is higher. However, heat indices developed to allow for this have not consistently predicted mortality better than dry-bulb temperature.Objectives: We aimed to clarify the potential contribution of humidity an addition to temperature in predicting daily mortality in summer by using a large multicountry dataset.Methods: In 445 cities in 24 countries, we fit a time-series regression model for summer mortality with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for temperature (up to lag 3) and supplemented this with a range of terms for relative humidity (RH) and its interaction with temperature. City-specific associations were summarized using meta-analytic techniques.Results: Adding a linear term for RH to the temperature term improved fit slightly, with an increase of 23% in RH (the 99th percentile anomaly) associated with a 1.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 1.3] decrease in mortality. Allowing curvature in the RH term or adding terms for interaction of RH with temperature did not improve the model fit. The humidity-related decreased risk was made up of a positive coefficient at lag 0 outweighed by negative coefficients at lags of 1–3 d. Key results were broadly robust to small model changes and replacing RH with absolute measures of humidity. Replacing temperature with apparent temperature, a metric combining humidity and temperature, reduced goodness of fit slightly.Discussion:The absence of a positive association of humidity with mortality in summer in this large multinational study is counter to expectations from physiologic studies, though consistent with previous epidemiologic studies finding little evidence for improved prediction by heat indices. The result that there was a small negative average association of humidity with mortality should be interpreted cautiously; the lag structure has unclear interpretation and suggests the need for future work to clarify.
|
|
13. |
- Arslan, Alan A., et al.
(author)
-
Anthropometric Measures, Body Mass Index, and Pancreatic Cancer A Pooled Analysis From the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan)
- 2010
-
In: Archives of Internal Medicine. - 0003-9926. ; 170:9, s. 791-802
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Obesity has been proposed as a risk factor for pancreatic cancer. Methods: Pooled data were analyzed from the National Cancer Institute Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) to study the association, between prediagnostic anthropometric measures and risk of pancreatic cancer. PanScan applied a nested case-control study design and included 2170 cases and 2209 control subjects. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression for cohort-specific quartiles of body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), weight, height, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio as well as conventional BMI categories (underweight, <18.5; normal weight, 18.5-24.9; overweight, 25.0-29.9; obese, 30.0-34.9; and severely obese, >= 35.0). Models were adjusted for potential confounders. Results: In all of the participants, a positive association between increasing BMI and risk of pancreatic cancer was observed (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest BMI guartile, 1.33; 95% Cl, 1.12-1.58; P-trend<.001). In men, the adjusted OR for pancreatic cancer for the highest vs lowest quartile of BMI was 1.33 (95% Cl, 1.04-1.69; P-trend<.03), and in women it was 1.34 (95% Cl, 1.05-1.70; P-trend=.01). Increased waist to hip ratio was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in women (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest quartile, 1.87; 95% Cl, 1.31-2.69; P-trend=.003) but less so in men. Conclusions: These findings provide strong support for a positive association between BMI and pancreatic cancer risk. In addition, centralized fat distribution may increase pancreatic cancer risk, especially in women. Arch Intern Med. 2010;170(9):791 -802
|
|
14. |
- Campa, Daniele, et al.
(author)
-
Genetic variability of the mTOR pathway and prostate cancer risk in the European prospective investigation on cancer (EPIC)
- 2011
-
In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:2, s. e16914-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) signal transduction pathway integrates various signals, regulating ribosome biogenesis and protein synthesis as a function of available energy and amino acids, and assuring an appropriate coupling of cellular proliferation with increases in cell size. In addition, recent evidence has pointed to an interplay between the mTOR and p53 pathways. We investigated the genetic variability of 67 key genes in the mTOR pathway and in genes of the p53 pathway which interact with mTOR. We tested the association of 1,084 tagging SNPs with prostate cancer risk in a study of 815 prostate cancer cases and 1,266 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We chose the SNPs (n = 11) with the strongest association with risk (p<0.01) and sought to replicate their association in an additional series of 838 prostate cancer cases and 943 controls from EPIC. In the joint analysis of first and second phase two SNPs of the PRKCI gene showed an association with risk of prostate cancer (OR(allele) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.94, p = 1.3×10(-3) for rs546950 and OR(allele) = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93, p = 5.6×10(-4) for rs4955720). We confirmed this in a meta-analysis using as replication set the data from the second phase of our study jointly with the first phase of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project. In conclusion, we found an association with prostate cancer risk for two SNPs belonging to PRKCI, a gene which is frequently overexpressed in various neoplasms, including prostate cancer.
|
|
15. |
- Chen, Gongbo, et al.
(author)
-
All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone : a multicountry two-stage time series analysis
- 2024
-
In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 8:7, s. e452-e462
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Wildfire activity is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution. However, no study to date has systematically examined the associations of wildfire-related O3 exposure with mortality globally.Methods: We did a multicountry two-stage time series analysis. From the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, data on daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths were obtained from 749 locations in 43 countries or areas, representing overlapping periods from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2016. We estimated the daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 in study locations using a chemical transport model, and then calibrated and downscaled O3 estimates to a resolution of 0·25° × 0·25° (approximately 28 km2 at the equator). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we examined the associations of short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure (lag period of 0–2 days) with daily mortality, first at the location level and then pooled at the country, regional, and global levels. Annual excess mortality fraction in each location attributable to wildfire-related O3 was calculated with pooled effect estimates and used to obtain excess mortality fractions at country, regional, and global levels.Findings: Between 2000 and 2016, the highest maximum daily wildfire-related O3 concentrations (≥30 μg/m3) were observed in locations in South America, central America, and southeastern Asia, and the country of South Africa. Across all locations, an increase of 1 μg/m3 in the mean daily concentration of wildfire-related O3 during lag 0–2 days was associated with increases of 0·55% (95% CI 0·29 to 0·80) in daily all-cause mortality, 0·44% (–0·10 to 0·99) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0·82% (0·18 to 1·47) in daily respiratory mortality. The associations of daily mortality rates with wildfire-related O3 exposure showed substantial geographical heterogeneity at the country and regional levels. Across all locations, estimated annual excess mortality fractions of 0·58% (95% CI 0·31 to 0·85; 31 606 deaths [95% CI 17 038 to 46 027]) for all-cause mortality, 0·41% (–0·10 to 0·91; 5249 [–1244 to 11 620]) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0·86% (0·18 to 1·51; 4657 [999 to 8206]) for respiratory mortality were attributable to short-term exposure to wildfire-related O3.Interpretation: In this study, we observed an increase in all-cause and respiratory mortality associated with short-term wildfire-related O3 exposure. Effective risk and smoke management strategies should be implemented to protect the public from the impacts of wildfires.
|
|
16. |
- Chen, Gongbo, et al.
(author)
-
Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution : a global time series study in 749 locations
- 2021
-
In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 5:9, s. e579-e587
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.METHODS: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000-16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated.FINDINGS: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0-2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016-1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012-1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013-1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48-0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43-0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50-0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period.INTERPRETATION: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.
|
|
17. |
- Chen, Kai, et al.
(author)
-
Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities
- 2021
-
In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 5:4, s. e191-e199
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. Methods: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure–response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. Findings: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32–1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure–response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure–response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. Interpretation: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants. Funding: EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.
|
|
18. |
- Choi, Hayon Michelle, et al.
(author)
-
Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality : A multi-city multi-country study
- 2022
-
In: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3964. ; 84
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.METHODS: We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations.FINDINGS: Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries.INTERPRETATION: Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.FUNDING: This publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.
|
|
19. |
- Christakoudi, Sofia, et al.
(author)
-
A Body Shape Index (ABSI) achieves better mortality risk stratification than alternative indices of abdominal obesity : results from a large European cohort
- 2020
-
In: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Abdominal and general adiposity are independently associated with mortality, but there is no consensus on how best to assess abdominal adiposity. We compared the ability of alternative waist indices to complement body mass index (BMI) when assessing all-cause mortality. We used data from 352,985 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other risk factors. During a mean follow-up of 16.1 years, 38,178 participants died. Combining in one model BMI and a strongly correlated waist index altered the association patterns with mortality, to a predominantly negative association for BMI and a stronger positive association for the waist index, while combining BMI with the uncorrelated A Body Shape Index (ABSI) preserved the association patterns. Sex-specific cohort-wide quartiles of waist indices correlated with BMI could not separate high-risk from low-risk individuals within underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m(2)) or obese (BMI30 kg/m(2)) categories, while the highest quartile of ABSI separated 18-39% of the individuals within each BMI category, which had 22-55% higher risk of death. In conclusion, only a waist index independent of BMI by design, such as ABSI, complements BMI and enables efficient risk stratification, which could facilitate personalisation of screening, treatment and monitoring.
|
|
20. |
- Chuang, Shu-Chun, et al.
(author)
-
Cellular immune activity biomarker neopterin is associated hyperlipidemia : results from a large population-based study
- 2016
-
In: Immunity & Ageing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1742-4933. ; 13
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Increased serum neopterin had been described in older age two decades ago. Neopterin is a biomarker of systemic adaptive immune activation that could be potentially implicated in metabolic syndrome (MetS). Measurements of waist circumference, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, glycated hemoglobin as components of MetS definition, and plasma total neopterin concentrations were performed in 594 participants recruited in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).Results: Higher total neopterin concentrations were associated with reduced HDLC (9.7 %, p < 0.01 for men and 9.2 %, p < 0.01 for women), whereas no association was observed with the rest of the MetS components as well as with MetS overall (per 10 nmol/L: OR = 1.42, 95 % CI = 0.85-2.39 for men and OR = 1.38, 95 % CI = 0.79-2.43).Conclusions: These data suggest that high total neopterin concentrations are cross-sectionally associated with reduced HDLC, but not with overall MetS.
|
|
21. |
- Domingo, Nina G.G., et al.
(author)
-
Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement
- 2024
-
In: One Earth. - : Elsevier. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:2, s. 325-335
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.
|
|
22. |
- Fedirko, Veronika, et al.
(author)
-
Pre-diagnostic anthropometry and survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis in Western European populations
- 2014
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 135:8, s. 1949-1960
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- General and abdominal adiposity are associated with a high risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), but the role of these exposures on cancer survival has been less studied. The association between pre-diagnostic anthropometric characteristics and CRC-specific and all-cause death was examined among 3,924 men and women diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2009 in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (FIRS) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (as). Over a mean follow-up period of 49 months, 1,309 deaths occurred of which 1,043 (79.7%) were due to CRC. In multivariable analysis, prediagnostic BMI kg/m2 was associated with a high risk for CRC-specific (HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.04-1.52) and all-cause (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.56) death relative to BMI <25 kg/m(2). Every 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI was associated with a high risk for CRC-specific (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.02-1.19) and all-cause death (HR = 1.12, 95% Cl = 1.05-1.20); and every 10 cm increase in waist circumference was associated with a high risk for CRC-specific (HR = 1.09, 95% Cl = 1.02-1.16) and allcause death (HR= 1.11, 95% CI= 1.05-1.18). Similar associations were observed for waist-to-hip and waist-to-height ratios. Height was not associated with CRC-specific or all-cause death. Associations tended to be stronger among men than in women. Possible interactions by age at diagnosis, cancer stage, tumour location, and hormone replacement therapy use among postmenopausal women were noted. Pre-diagnostic general and abdominal adiposity are associated with lower survival after CRC diagnosis.
|
|
23. |
- Fedirko, Veronika, et al.
(author)
-
Prediagnostic circulating parathyroid hormone concentration and colorectal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort
- 2011
-
In: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 20:5, s. 767-778
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Parathyroid hormone (PTH) has been proposed to play a promoting role in carcinogenesis. However, no epidemiologic studies have yet directly investigated its role in colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: A case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort was conducted with 1,214 incident, sporadic CRC cases matched to 1,214 controls. Circulating prediagnostic PTH and 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Detailed dietary and lifestyle questionnaire data were collected at baseline. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between circulating PTH and CRC risk. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses [including adjustment for 25(OH)D concentration] with a priori defined cutoff points, high levels of serum PTH (≥65 ng/L) compared with medium PTH levels of 30-65 ng/L were associated with increased CRC risk (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.03-1.93). In analyses by sex, the CRC risk was 1.77 (95% CI: 1.14-2.75) and 1.15 (95% CI: 0.73-1.84) in men and women, respectively (P(heterogeneity) = 0.01). In subgroup analyses by anatomical subsite, the risk for colon cancer was RR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.03-2.34, and for rectal cancer RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.72-2.01 (P(heterogeneity) = 0.21). Effect modification by various risk factors was examined. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that high serum PTH levels may be associated with incident, sporadic CRC in Western European populations, and in particular among men. IMPACT: To our knowledge, this is the first study on PTH and CRC. The role of PTH in carcinogenesis needs to be further investigated.
|
|
24. |
- Friedenreich, Christine, et al.
(author)
-
Anthropometric factors and risk of endometrial cancer: the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
- 2007
-
In: Cancer Causes and Control. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7225 .- 0957-5243. ; 18:4, s. 399-413
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective To examine the association between anthropometry and endometrial cancer, particularly by menopausal status and exogenous hormone use subgroups. Methods Among 223,008 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, there were 567 incident endometrial cancer cases during 6.4 years of follow-up. The analysis was performed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results Weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences and waist-hip ratio (WHR) were strongly associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer. The relative risk (RR) for obese (BMI 30- < 40 kg/m(2)) compared to normal weight (BMI < 25) women was 1.78, 95% CI = 1.41-2.26, and for morbidly obese women (BMI >= 40) was 3.02, 95% CI = 1.66-5.52. The RR for women with a waist circumference of >= 88 cm vs. < 80 cm was 1.76, 95% CI = 1.42-2.19. Adult weight gain of >= 20 kg compared with stable weight (+/- 3 kg) increased risk independent of body weight at age 20 (RR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.11-2.77). These associations were generally stronger for postmenopausal than premenopausal women, and oral contraceptives never-users than ever-users, and much stronger among never-users of hormone replacement therapy compared to ever-users. Conclusion Obesity, abdominal adiposity, and adult weight gain were strongly associated with endometrial cancer risk. These associations were particularly evident among never-users of hormone replacement therapy.
|
|
25. |
- Friedenreich, Christine, et al.
(author)
-
Physical activity and risk of colon and rectal cancers: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2006
-
In: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention. - 1538-7755. ; 15:12, s. 2398-2407
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigated several aspects of the role of physical activity in colon and rectal cancer etiology that remain unclear in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer. This cohort of 413,044 men and women had 1,094 cases of colon and 599 cases of rectal cancer diagnosed during an average of 6.4 years of follow-up. We analyzed baseline data on occupational, household, and recreational activity to examine associations by type of activity, tumor subsite, body mass index (BMI), and energy intake. The multivariate hazard ratio for colon cancer was 0.78 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.59-1.03] among the most active participants when compared with the inactive, with evidence of a dose-response effect (P-trend = 0.04). For right-sided colon tumors, the risk was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.43-1.00) in the highest quartile of activity with evidence of a linear trend (P-trend=0.004). Active participants with a BMI under 25 had a risk of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.39-1.01) for colon cancer compared with the inactive. Finally, an interaction between BMI and activity (P-interaction=0.03) was observed for right-sided colon cancers; among moderately active and active participants with a BMI under 25, a risk of 0.38 (95% CI, 0.21-0.68) was found as compared with inactive participants with BMI > 30. No comparable decreased risks were observed for rectal cancer for any type of physical activity for any subgroup analyses or interactions considered. We found that physical activity reduced colon cancer risk, specifically for right-sided tumors and for lean participants, but not rectal cancer.
|
|
26. |
- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(author)
-
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature : a multicountry observational study
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:9991, s. 369-375
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.METHODS: We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FINDINGS: We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality.INTERPRETATION: Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.
|
|
27. |
- Gasparrini, Antonio, et al.
(author)
-
Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios
- 2017
-
In: The Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 1:9, s. e360-e367
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates.Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes.Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.Interpretation: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks.
|
|
28. |
- Guo, Yuming, et al.
(author)
-
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios : A multicountry time series modelling study
- 2018
-
In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:7
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
|
|
29. |
|
|
30. |
- Jenab, Mazda, et al.
(author)
-
Vitamin D receptor and Calcium sensing receptor Polymorphisms and the risk of Colorectal Cancer in European populations
- 2009
-
In: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 18, s. 2485-2491
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Increased levels of vitamin D and calcium may play a protective role in colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. It has been suggested that these effects may be mediated by genetic variants of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) and the calcium sensing receptor (CASR). However, current epidemiologic evidence from European populations for a role of these genes in CRC risk is scarce. In addition, it is not clear whether these genes may modulate CRC risk independently or by interaction with blood vitamin D concentration and level of dietary calcium intake. A case-control study was conducted nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. CRC cases (1,248) were identified and matched to 1,248 control subjects. Genotyping for the VDR (BsmI: rs1544410; Fok1: rs2228570) and CASR (rs1801725) genes was done by Taqman, and serum vitamin D (25OHD) concentrations were measured. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (RR). Compared with the wild-type bb, the BB genotype of the VDR BsmI polymorphism was associated with a reduced risk of CRC [RR, 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-0.98). The association was observed for colon cancer (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.45-0.95) but not rectal cancer (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.62-1.49). The Fok1 and CASR genotypes were not associated with CRC risk in this study. No interactions were noted for any of the polymorphisms with serum 25OHD concentration or level of dietary calcium. These results confirm a role for the BsmI polymorphism of the VDR gene in CRC risk, independent of serum 25OHD concentration and dietary calcium intake. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(9):2485-91).
|
|
31. |
- Kyrø, Cecilie, et al.
(author)
-
Plasma alkylresorcinol concentrations, biomarkers of whole-grain wheat and rye intake, in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
- 2014
-
In: British Journal of Nutrition. - : Cambridge University Press. - 0007-1145 .- 1475-2662. ; 111:10, s. 1881-1890
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Whole-grain intake has been reported to be associated with a lower risk of several lifestyle-related diseases such as type 2 diabetes, CVD and some types of cancers. As measurement errors in self-reported whole-grain intake assessments can be substantial, dietary biomarkers are relevant to be used as complementary tools for dietary intake assessment. Alkylresorcinols (AR) are phenolic lipids found almost exclusively in whole-grain wheat and rye products among the commonly consumed foods and are considered as valid biomarkers of the intake of these products. In the present study, we analysed the plasma concentrations of five AR homologues in 2845 participants from ten European countries from a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. High concentrations of plasma total AR were found in participants from Scandinavia and Central Europe and lower concentrations in those from the Mediterranean countries. The geometric mean plasma total AR concentrations were between 35 and 41nmol/l in samples drawn from fasting participants in the Central European and Scandinavian countries and below 23nmol/l in those of participants from the Mediterranean countries. The whole-grain source (wheat or rye) could be determined using the ratio of two of the homologues. The main source was wheat in Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK, whereas rye was also consumed in considerable amounts in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. The present study demonstrates a considerable variation in the plasma concentrations of total AR and concentrations of AR homologues across ten European countries, reflecting both quantitative and qualitative differences in the intake of whole-grain wheat and rye.
|
|
32. |
- Kyrø, Cecilie, et al.
(author)
-
Plasma Alkylresorcinols, Biomarkers of Whole-Grain Wheat and Rye Intake, and Incidence of Colorectal Cancer
- 2014
-
In: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 106:1, s. djt352-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Few studies have investigated the association between whole-grain intake and colorectal cancer. Because whole-grain intake estimation might be prone to measurement errors, more objective measures (eg, biomarkers) could assist in investigating such associations. Methods The association between alkylresorcinols, biomarkers of whole-grain rye and wheat intake, and colorectal cancer incidence were investigated using prediagnostic plasma samples from colorectal cancer case patients and matched control subjects nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. We included 1372 incident colorectal cancer case patients and 1372 individual matched control subjects and calculated the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for overall and anatomical subsites of colorectal cancer using conditional logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders. Regional differences (Scandinavia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe) were also explored. Results High plasma total alkylresorcinol concentration was associated with lower incidence of distal colon cancer; the adjusted incidence rate ratio of distal colon cancer for the highest vs lowest quartile of plasma total alkylresorcinols was 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.28 to 0.83). An inverse association between plasma total alkylresorcinol concentrations and colon cancer was found for Scandinavian participants (IRR per doubling = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98). However, plasma total alkylresorcinol concentrations were not associated with overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, or rectal cancer. Plasma alkylresorcinols concentrations were associated with colon and distal colon cancer only in Central Europe and Scandinavia (ie, areas where alkylresorcinol levels were higher). Conclusions High concentrations of plasma alkylresorcinols were associated with a lower incidence of distal colon cancer but not with overall colorectal cancer, proximal colon cancer, and rectal cancer.
|
|
33. |
- Lee, Jae Young, et al.
(author)
-
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- 2019
-
In: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 131
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
|
|
34. |
- Lee, Whanhee, et al.
(author)
-
Mortality burden of diurnal temperature range and its temporal changes : a multi-country study
- 2018
-
In: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 110, s. 123-130
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013. The temporal change in DTR-related mortality was estimated for each city with a time-varying distributed lag model. Estimates for each city were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. The results showed that the attributable fraction of total mortality to DTR was 2.5% (95% eCI: 2.3-2.7%) over the entire study period. In all countries, the attributable fraction increased from 2.4% (2.1-2.7%) to 2.7% (2.4-2.9%) between the first and last study years. This study found that DTR has significantly contributed to mortality in all the countries studied, and this attributable fraction has significantly increased over time in the USA, the UK, Spain, and South Korea. Therefore, because the health burden of DTR is not likely to reduce in the near future, countermeasures are needed to alleviate its impact on human health.
|
|
35. |
- Leufkens, Anke M, et al.
(author)
-
Educational level and risk of colorectal cancer in EPIC with specific reference to tumor location
- 2011
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - New York : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 130:3, s. 622-630
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Existing evidence is inconclusive on whether socioeconomic status (SES) and educational inequalities influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, and whether low or high SES/educational level is associated with developing CRC. The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between educational level and CRC. We studied data from 400,510 participants in the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study, of whom 2,447 developed CRC (colon: 1,551, rectum: 896, mean follow-up 8.3 years). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis stratified by age, gender and center, and adjusted for potential confounders were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Relative indices of inequality (RII) for education were estimated using Cox regression models. We conducted separate analyses for tumor location, gender and geographical region. Compared with participants with college/university education, participants with vocational secondary education or less had a nonsignificantly lower risk of developing CRC. When further stratified for tumor location, adjusted risk estimates for the proximal colon were statistically significant for primary education or less (HR 0.73, 95%CI 0.57–0.94) and for vocational secondary education (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.58–0.98). The inverse association between low education and CRC risk was particularly found in women and Southern Europe. These associations were statistically significant for CRC, for colon cancer and for proximal colon cancer. In conclusion, CRC risk, especially in the proximal colon, is lower in subjects with a lower educational level compared to those with a higher educational level. This association is most pronounced in women and Southern Europe.
|
|
36. |
- Linseisen, Jakob, et al.
(author)
-
Fruit and vegetable consumption and lung cancer risk: Updated information from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
- 2007
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 121:5, s. 1103-1114
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The association of fruit and vegetable consumption and lung cancer incidence was evaluated using the most recent data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), applying a refined statistical approach (calibration) to account for measurement error potentially introduced by using food frequency questionnaire data. Between 1992 and 2000, detailed information on diet and life-style of 478,590 individuals participating in EPIC was collected. During a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 1,126 lung cancer cases were observed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were applied for statistical evaluation. In the whole study population, fruit consumption was significantly inversely associated with lung cancer risk while no association was found for vegetable consumption. In current smokers, however, lung cancer risk significantly decreased with higher vegetable consumption; this association became more pronounced after calibration, the hazard ratio (HR) being 0.78 (95% CI 0.620.98) per 100 g increase in daily vegetable consumption. In comparison, the HR per 100 g fruit was 0.92 (0.85-0.99) in the entire cohort and 0.90 (0.81-0.99) in smokers. Exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first 2 years of follow-up strengthened these associations, the HR being 0.71 (0.55-0.94) for vegetables (smokers) and 0.86 (0.78-0.95) for fruit (entire cohort). Cancer incidence decreased with higher consumption of apples and pears (entire cohort) as well as root vegetables (smokers). In addition to an overall inverse association with fruit intake, the results of this evaluation add evidence for a significant inverse association of vegetable consumption and lung cancer incidence in smokers. (C) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
|
|
37. |
- Liu, Cong, et al.
(author)
-
Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities
- 2019
-
In: New England Journal of Medicine. - Waltham : Massachusetts Medical Society. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 381:8, s. 705-715
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias.METHODS: We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived.RESULTS: On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM10 concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations.CONCLUSIONS: Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).
|
|
38. |
- Liu, Cong, et al.
(author)
-
Coarse particulate air pollution and daily mortality : a global study in 205 cities
- 2022
-
In: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. - : American Thoracic Society. - 1073-449X .- 1535-4970. ; 206:8, s. 999-1007
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- RATIONALE: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality is not fully understood at a global scale.OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide.METHODS: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine particulate matter. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with over-dispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from co-pollutants (fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled and regional analyses were conducted.MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18%, 0.84%), 0.43% (95%CI: 0.15%, 0.71%) and 0.41% (95%CI: 0.06%, 0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all co-pollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.
|
|
39. |
- Masselot, Pierre, et al.
(author)
-
Differential mortality risks associated with PM2.5 components : a multi-country, multi-city study
- 2022
-
In: Epidemiology. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1044-3983 .- 1531-5487. ; 33:2, s. 167-175
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality widely differs between as well as within countries. Differences in PM2.5 composition can play a role in modifying the effect estimates, but there is little evidence about which components have higher impacts on mortality.METHODS: We applied a two-stage analysis on data collected from 210 locations in 16 countries. In the first stage, we estimated location-specific relative risks (RR) for mortality associated with daily total PM2.5 through time series regression analysis. We then pooled these estimates in a meta-regression model that included city-specific logratio-transformed proportions of seven PM2.5 components as well as meta-predictors derived from city-specific socio-economic and environmental indicators.RESULTS: We found associations between RR and several PM2.5 components. Increasing the ammonium (NH4+) proportion from 1% to 22%, while keeping a relative average proportion of other components, increased the RR from 1.0063 (95%CI: 1.0030-1.0097) to 1.0102 (95%CI:1.0070-1.0135). Conversely, an increase in nitrate (NO3-) from 1% to 71% resulted in a reduced RR, from 1.0100 (95%CI: 1.0067-1.0133) to 1.0037 (95%CI: 0.9998- 1.0077). Differences in composition explained a substantial part of the heterogeneity in PM2.5 risk.CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to the identification of more hazardous emission sources. Further work is needed to understand the health impacts of PM2.5 components and sources given the overlapping sources and correlations among many components.
|
|
40. |
- Meng, Xia, et al.
(author)
-
Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality : multilocation analysis in 398 cities.
- 2021
-
In: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 372
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol.DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis.SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018.RESULTS: On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities.CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.
|
|
41. |
- Nimptsch, Katharina, et al.
(author)
-
Association of CRP genetic variants with blood concentrations of C-reactive protein and colorectal cancer risk.
- 2015
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 136:5, s. 1181-1192
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High blood concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) have been associated with elevated risk of colorectal cancer in several prospective studies including the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), but it is unknown whether these observations reflect a causal relationship. We aimed to investigate whether CRP genetic variants associated with lifelong higher CRP concentrations translate into higher colorectal cancer risk. We conducted a prospective nested case-control study within EPIC including 727 cases diagnosed between 1992 and 2003 and 727 matched controls selected according to an incidence-density sampling protocol. Baseline CRP concentrations were measured in plasma samples by a high sensitivity assay. Tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP gene (rs1205, rs1800947, rs1130864, rs2808630, rs3093077) were identified via HapMap. The causal effect of CRP on colorectal cancer risk was examined in a Mendelian Randomization approach utilizing multiple CRP genetic variants as instrumental variables. The SNPs rs1205, rs1800947, rs1130864 and rs3093077 were significantly associated with CRP concentrations and were incorporated in a CRP allele score which was associated with 13% higher CRP concentrations per allele count (95% confidence interval 8-19%). Using the CRP-score as instrumental variable, genetically twofold higher CRP concentrations were associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer (odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.06-2.85). Similar observations were made using alternative definitions of instrumental variables. Our findings give support to the hypothesis that elevated circulating CRP may play a direct role in the etiology of colorectal cancer.
|
|
42. |
- Nimptsch, Katharina, et al.
(author)
-
Plasma fetuin-A concentration, genetic variation in the AHSG gene and risk of colorectal cancer
- 2015
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 137:4, s. 911-920
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Fetuin-A, also referred to as alpha 2-Heremans-Schmid glycoprotein (AHSG), is a liver protein known to inhibit insulin actions. Hyperinsulinemia is a possible risk factor for colorectal cancer; however, the role of fetuin-A in the development of colorectal cancer is unclear. We investigated the association between circulating fetuin-A and colorectal cancer risk in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Fetuin-A concentrations were measured in prediagnostic plasma samples from 1,367 colorectal cancer cases and 1,367 matched controls. In conditional logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, the estimated relative risk (95% confidence interval) of colorectal cancer per 40 mg/mL higher fetuin-A concentrations (approximately one standard deviation) was 1.13 (1.02-1.24) overall, 1.21 (1.05-1.39) in men, 1.06 (0.93-1.22) in women, 1.13 (1.00-1.27) for colon cancer and 1.12 (0.94-1.32) for rectal cancer. To improve causal inference in a Mendelian Randomization approach, five tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms of the AHSG gene were genotyped in a subset of 456 case-control pairs. The AHSG allele-score explained 21% of the interindividual variation in plasma fetuin-A concentrations. In instrumental variable analysis, genetically raised fetuin-A was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (relative risk per 40 mg/mL genetically determined higher fetuin-A was 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.33). The findings of our study indicate a modest linear association between fetuin-A concentrations and risk of colorectal cancer but suggest that fetuin-A may not be causally related to colorectal cancer development.
|
|
43. |
- Nimptsch, Katharina, et al.
(author)
-
Pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein concentrations, CRP genetic variation and mortality among individuals with colorectal cancer in Western European populations
- 2022
-
In: BMC Cancer. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2407. ; 22:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear.Methods: We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively).Conclusions: The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.
|
|
44. |
- Ostaszewski, Marek, et al.
(author)
-
COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus-host interaction mechanisms
- 2021
-
In: Molecular Systems Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1744-4292 .- 1744-4292. ; 17:10
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.
|
|
45. |
- Perez-Cornago, Aurora, et al.
(author)
-
Tall height and obesity are associated with an increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer : results from the EPIC cohort study
- 2017
-
In: BMC Medicine. - : BioMed Central. - 1741-7015. ; 15
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The relationship between body size and prostate cancer risk, and in particular risk by tumour characteristics, is not clear because most studies have not differentiated between high-grade or advanced stage tumours, but rather have assessed risk with a combined category of aggressive disease. We investigated the association of height and adiposity with incidence of and death from prostate cancer in 141,896 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Methods: Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). After an average of 13.9 years of follow-up, there were 7024 incident prostate cancers and 934 prostate cancer deaths. Results: Height was not associated with total prostate cancer risk. Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in the association with height by tumour grade (P-heterogeneity = 0.002), with a positive association with risk for high-grade but not low-intermediate-grade disease (HR for high-grade disease tallest versus shortest fifth of height, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.18-2.03). Greater height was also associated with a higher risk for prostate cancer death (HR = 1.43, 1.14-1.80). Body mass index (BMI) was significantly inversely associated with total prostate cancer, but there was evidence of heterogeneity by tumour grade (P-heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.89, 0.79-0.99 for low-intermediate grade and HR = 1.32, 1.01-1.72 for high-grade prostate cancer) and stage (P-heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.86, 0.75-0.99 for localised stage and HR = 1.11, 0.92-1.33 for advanced stage). BMI was positively associated with prostate cancer death (HR = 1.35, 1.09-1.68). The results for waist circumference were generally similar to those for BMI, but the associations were slightly stronger for high-grade (HR = 1.43, 1.07-1.92) and fatal prostate cancer (HR = 1.55, 1.23-1.96). Conclusions: The findings from this large prospective study show that men who are taller and who have greater adiposity have an elevated risk of high-grade prostate cancer and prostate cancer death.
|
|
46. |
- Pesch, Beate, et al.
(author)
-
N-acetyltransferase 2 Phenotype, Occupation, and Bladder Cancer Risk : Results from the EPIC Cohort
- 2013
-
In: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 22:11, s. 2055-2065
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: An association between N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) slow acetylation and bladder cancer has been consistently observed in epidemiologic studies. However, evidence has been mainly derived from case-control studies and was sparse from cohort studies. We evaluated the association between NAT2 slow acetylation and bladder cancer in a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.Methods: Exposure to aromatic amines and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) could be assessed for 754 cases and 833 controls for whom occupational information was documented. A semiquantitative job-exposure matrix was applied to at-risk occupations to estimate the exposure as low, medium, or high based on tertiles of the distribution of the exposure score in controls. Using a comprehensive genotyping, NAT2 acetylation status could be categorized from 6-single-nucleotide polymorphism genotypes as slow or fast in 607 cases and 695 controls with DNA from archived blood samples.Results: Occupational exposure to aromatic amines and PAH was associated with an increased bladder cancer risk [upper tertile of the distribution of the exposure score: OR = 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.84, and OR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.09-2.05, respectively]. NAT2 slow acetylation did not modify these risk estimates and was not itself associated with bladder cancer risk (OR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.81-1.29).Conclusions: These findings confirm established or suspected occupational risk factors but not the anticipated role of NAT2 slow acetylation in bladder cancer. No interaction was detected between NAT2 and any exposure of interest, including smoking. Impact: Genetic testing for NAT2 would be inappropriate in occupational settings.
|
|
47. |
- Pischon, Tobias, et al.
(author)
-
Body size and risk of colon and rectal cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)
- 2006
-
In: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2105 .- 0027-8874. ; 98:13, s. 920-931
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Body weight and body mass index (BMI) are positively related to risk of colon cancer in men, whereas weak or no associations exist in women. This discrepancy may be related to differences in fat distribution between sexes or to the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in women. Methods: We used multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between anthropometric measures and risks of colon and rectal cancer among 368 277 men and women who were free of cancer at baseline from nine countries of the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: During 6.1 years of follow-up, we identified 984 and 586 patients with colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Body weight and BMI were statistically significantly associated with colon cancer risk in men (highest versus lowest quintile of BMI, relative risk [RR] = 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12 to 2.15; P-trend =.006) but not in women. In contrast, comparisons of the highest to the lowest quintile showed that several anthropometric measures, including waist circumference (men, RR = 1.39,95% CI = 1.01 to 1.93; P-trend = .001; women, RR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.08 to 2.03; P-trend =.008), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; men, RR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.15; P-trend =.006; women, RR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.05; P-trend =.002), and height (men, RR = 1.40, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.98; P-trend =.04; women, RR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.30 to 2.46; P-trend <.001) were related to colon cancer risk in both sexes. The estimated absolute risk of developing colon cancer within 5 years was 203 and 131 cases per 100 000 men and 129 and 86 cases per 100000 women in the highest and lowest quintiles of WHR, respectively. Upon further stratification, no association of waist circumference and WHR with risk of colon cancer was observed among postmenopausal women who used HRT. None of the anthropometric measures was statistically significantly related to rectal cancer. Conclusions: Waist circumference and WHR, indicators of abdominal obesity, were strongly associated with colon cancer risk in men and women in this population. The association of abdominal obesity with colon cancer risk may vary depending on HRT use in postmenopausal women; however, these findings require confirmation in future studies.
|
|
48. |
- Rai, Masna, et al.
(author)
-
Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality : effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries
- 2023
-
In: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 174
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. Objectives: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.Methods: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model.Results: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6–7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2–11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1–14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5–1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1–5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7–8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively.Discussion: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.
|
|
49. |
- Rinaldi, Sabina, et al.
(author)
-
Serum levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-3 and colorectal cancer risk: results from the EPIC cohort, plus a meta-analysis of prospective studies
- 2010
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 126:7, s. 1702-1715
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several prospective studies have shown a moderate positive association between increasing circulating insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels and colorectal cancer risk. However, the associations were often statistically nonsignificant, and the relationship of cancer risk with IGF-I's major binding protein, IGFBP-3, showed major discrepancies between studies. We investigated the association of colorectal cancer risk with serum IGF-I, total and intact IGFBP-3, in a case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort (1,121 cases of colorectal cancer and 1,121 matched controls). Conditional logistic regression was used to adjust for possible confounders. Our present study results were combined in a meta-analysis with those from 9 previous prospective studies to examine the overall evidence for a relationship of prediagnostic serum IGF-I with colorectal cancer risk. In the EPIC study, serum concentrations of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 showed no associations with risk of colorectal cancer overall. Only in subgroup analyses did our study show moderate positive associations of IGF-I levels with risk, either among younger participants only (and only for colon cancer) or among participants whose milk intakes were in the lowest tertile of the population distribution (RR for an increase of 100 ng/ml = 1.43 [95% CI = 1.13-1.93]). Nevertheless, in the meta-analysis a modest positive association remained between serum IGF-I and colorectal cancer risk overall (RR = 1.07 [1.01-1.14] for 1 standard deviation increase in IGF-I). Overall, data from our present study and previous prospective studies combined indicate a relatively modest association of colorectal cancer risk with serum IGF-I.
|
|
50. |
- Rohrmann, Sabine, et al.
(author)
-
Meat and fish consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
- 2013
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 132:3, s. 617-24
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pancreatic cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer death worldwide with large geographical variation, which implies the contribution of diet and lifestyle in its etiology. We examined the association of meat and fish consumption with risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 477,202 EPIC participants from 10 European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were included in our analysis. Until 2008, 865 nonendocrine pancreatic cancer cases have been observed. Calibrated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using multivariable-adjusted Cox hazard regression models. The consumption of red meat (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.931.14) and processed meat (RR per 50 g increase per day = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.711.23) were not associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk. Poultry consumption tended to be associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.042.84); however, there was no association with fish consumption (RR per 50 g increase per day = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.921.62). Our results do not support the conclusion of the World Cancer Research Fund that red or processed meat consumption may possibly increase the risk of pancreatic cancer. The positive association of poultry consumption with pancreatic cancer might be a chance finding as it contradicts most previous findings.
|
|