Simulating nature a philosohpical study of computer-simulation uncertainties and their role in climate science and policy advice / Arthur C. Petersen.

• 1. Introduction -- Section I Simulation Practice, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice -- 2. The Practice of Scientific Simulation -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The Simulation Laboratory -- 2.3 Elements of Simulation-Laboratory Practice -- 2.4 Plurality of Methodologies for Model Development and Evaluation -- 2.5 Plurality of Values in Simulation Practice-- 2.6 The Practices of Simulation and Experimentation Compared -- 2.7 Conclusion -- 3. A Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific Simulation -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Locations of Simulation Uncertainty -- 3.3 The Nature of Simulation Uncertainty -- 3.4 The Range of Simulation Uncertainty -- 3.5 Recognised Ignorance in Simulation -- 3.6 The Methodological Unreliability of Simulation -- 3.7 Value Diversity in Simulation Practice -- 3.8 The Uncertainties of Simulation and Experimentation Compared -- 3.9 Conclusion -- 4. Assessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 The Sound Science Debate -- 4.3 The Challenge of Postnormal Science -- 4.4 The Role of Simulation Uncertainty in Policy Advice -- 4.5 The Guidance on Uncertainty Assessment and Communication -- 4.6 Conclusion -- Section II The Case of Simulating Climate Change -- 5. The Practice of Climate Simulation -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Functions of Climate Simulation -- 5.3 Varying Climate-Model Concreteness -- 5.4 The Sociopolitical Context of Climate-Simulation Practice -- 5.5 Evaluating the Plurality of Climate-Simulation Models -- 5.6 Conclusion -- 6. Uncertainties in Climate Simulation -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 A General Overview of Uncertainty in Climate Simulation -- 6.3 Climate-Simulation Uncertainty and the Causal Attribution of Temperature Change -- 6.4 Conclusion -- 7. Assessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Communication of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty -- 7.3 An Example of Exploiting Societal Perspectives to Communicate Climate-Simulation Uncertainty -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8. Conclusions -- 8.1 Uncertainty Associated with Scientific Simulation -- 8.2 Differences and Similarities between Simulation and Experimental Uncertainty -- 8.3 Assessment and Communication of Scientific Simulation Uncertainties in Science-for-Policy -- 8.4 Uncertainty Associated with the Simulation-Based Attribution of Climate Change to Human Influences -- 8.5 Assessment and Communication of Attribution Uncertainty by the IPCC -- Appendix: Proceedings and Discussion of the IPCC Contact Group Meeting on Attribution, 20 January 2001, Shanghai. 

• Section I addresses the scientific practice of simulation, the uncertainties involved in simulation, and the role of simulation and its uncertainties in policy advice. Chapter 2 analyses the practice of scientific simulation as a 'laboratory' and examines the four main elements of this practice along with some philosophical issues that touch on these elements. Furthermore, the plurality of methodologies and values in simulation practice is discussed. Finally, the practice of simulation is compared with the practice of experimentation. Chapter 3 presents a typology of uncertainty in simulation and discusses the various dimensions of this typology. Subsequently, the uncertainties in simulation practice are compared with uncertainties in experimentation practice. Chapter 4 addresses the use of scientific simulation in policymaking. After treating general issues related to the science-policy interface and the role of simulation, including the present condition of 'postnormal science', a new methodology for assessing and communicating uncertainty in science-for-policy, which was developed at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University with my close involvement, is outlined. Climate change constitutes the main example of a public policy issue in which the use of computer simulation is hotly contested. Section II delves more deeply into this case. Chapter 5 describes the practice of climate simulation, while Chapter 6 discusses the uncertainties in climate simulation. Chapter 7 deals with the assessment of climate-simulation uncertainty for policy advice, with particular attention paid to the IPCC, a scientific assessment body of the United Nations that provides advice to policymakers on climate-change issues. Chapter 8 presents the conclusions of this study by answering the research questions posed in this introduction.

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Subject headings

Uncertainty (Information theory)  (LCSH)

Climatology  -- Computer simulation. (LCSH)

Climatic changes  -- Government policy. (LCSH)

Genre

Electronic books.  (LCSH)

Publication and Content Type

551.501/13 (DDC)

Uba (kssb/8 (machine generated))