Urban Network Travel Time Prediction via Online Multi-Output Gaussian Process Regression

Rodriguez-Deniz, HectorKTH,Transportvetenskap,Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden (author)

QC 20180618
The paper explores the potential of Multi-Output Gaussian Processes to tackle network-wide travel time prediction in an urban area. Forecasting in this context is challenging due to the complexity of the traffic network, noisy data and unexpected events. We build on recent methods to develop an online model that can be trained in seconds by relying on prior network dependences through a coregionalized covariance. The accuracy of the proposed model outperforms historical means and other simpler methods on a network of 47 streets in Stockholm, by using probe data from GPS-equipped taxis. Results show how traffic speeds are dependent on the historical correlations, and how prediction accuracy can be improved by relying on prior information while using a very limited amount of current-day observations, which allows for the development of models with low estimation times and high responsiveness.

Jenelius, ErikKTH,Transportvetenskap,Department of Transport Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden(Swepub:kth)u1x5t81f (author)
Villani, Mattias,1973-Linköpings universitet,Statistik och maskininlärning,Filosofiska fakulteten(Swepub:liu)matvi05 (author)
KTHTransportvetenskap (creator_code:org_t)

In:2017 IEEE 20TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS (ITSC): IEEE9781538615263

By the author/editor: Rodriguez-Deniz, ...; Jenelius, Erik; Villani, Mattias ...

About the subject

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY: ENGINEERING AND ...; and Civil Engineerin ...; and Transport System ...

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