Data learning and expert judgment in a bayesian belief network for offshore decommissioning risk assessment

Fam, Mei LingKTH,Lloyds Register Global Technol Ctr, Singapore, Singapore.;Nanyang Technol Univ, Singapore, Singapore. (author)

Part of proceedings: ISBN 978-1-351-17466-4, ISBN 978-0-8153-8682-7QC 20190527
Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases. Bayesian Belief networks (BBNs) are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple interactions of a decommissioning activity. The Bayesian Belief network is structured from the data learning of an accident database and a modification of the BBN nodes to incorporate human factors and barrier performance modelling. The analysis covers one case study of one area of decommissioning operations by extrapolating well workover data to well plugging and abandonment. Initial analysis from well workover data, of a 5-node BBN provided insights on two different levels of severity of an accident, the “Accident” and “Incident” level, and on its respective profiles of the initiating events and the investigation-reported human causes. The initial results demonstrate that the data learnt from the database can be used to structure the BBN, and give insights on how human factors pertaining to well activities can be modelled, and that the relative frequencies can act as initial data input for the proposed nodes. It is also proposed that the integrated treatment of various sources of information (database and expert judgement) through a BBN model can support the risk assessment of a dynamic situation such as offshore decommissioning.

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Elektroteknik och elektronik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering hsv//eng
Accidents
Database systems
Decision theory
Decommissioning (nuclear reactors)
Human engineering
Offshore oil well production
Reliability
Risk assessment
Well workover
Barrier performance
Decommissioning activities
Multiple interactions
Offshore decommissioning
Offshore facilities
Relative frequencies
Risk assessment methods
Sources of informations
Bayesian networks

He, X. H.Lloyds Register Global Technol Ctr, Singapore, Singapore. (author)
Hilber, Patrik,1975-KTH,Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion(Swepub:kth)u1sm6ffu (author)
Ong, L. S.Nanyang Technol Univ, Singapore, Singapore. (author)
Konovessis, D.Singapore Inst Technol, Singapore, Singapore. (author)
Tan, H. K.Lloyds Register Global Technol Ctr, Singapore, Singapore. (author)
KTHLloyds Register Global Technol Ctr, Singapore, Singapore.;Nanyang Technol Univ, Singapore, Singapore. (creator_code:org_t)

In:Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World: CRC Press/Balkema, s. 397-406

By the author/editor: Fam, Mei Ling; He, X. H.; Hilber, Patrik, ...; Ong, L. S.; Konovessis, D.; Tan, H. K.

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