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Projecting Tanzania Pension Fund System
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- John Mwakisisile, Andongwisye (author)
- Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
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- Larsson, Torbjörn, 1957- (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Optimeringslära,Tekniska fakulteten
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- Singull, Martin, 1977- (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Matematisk statistik,Tekniska fakulteten
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- (creator_code:org_t)
- 2017-01-01
- 2017
- English.
- In: African Journal of Applied Statistics. - : Afrika Statistika - SPAS. - 2316-0861. ; 4:1, s. 193-218
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
Subject headings
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- A mandatory Tanzania pension fund with a final salary defined benefit is analyzed. This fund is a contributory pay-as-you-go defined benefit pension system which is much affected by the change in demography. Two kinds of pension benefit, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension are considered. A decisive factor in the analysis is the increased life expectancy of members of the fund. The projection of the fund’s future members and retirees is done using expected mortality rates of working population and expected longevity. The future contributions, benefits, asset values and liabilities are analyzed. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable on a long term due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the benefit payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some possible reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the funding ratio, but contributions are still insufficient to cover benefit payouts.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Pension fund; Pay-as-you-go; Defined benefit; Demography
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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