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  • Petrescu, Ana Maria RoxanaVrije Univ Amsterdam, Netherlands; Uni Syst, Italy (author)

The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990-2019

  • Article/chapterEnglish2023

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2023-03-21
  • COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH,2023
  • electronicrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:liu-195347
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-195347URI
  • https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023DOI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • Funding Agencies|European Commission, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (VER-IFY) [776810]; CLand Convergence Institute; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan [JP-MEERF20182002]; H2020 project ESM2025 - Earth System Models for the Future [101003536]; European Research Council (ERC) [725546]; European Union [958927]; Finnish Academy [351311, 345531]; ERC consolidator grant QUINCY [647204]
  • Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their temporal variability as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK) and updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates, and it extends the previous period of 1990-2017 to 2019. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported by parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. Uncertainties in NGHGIs, as reported to the UNFCCC by the EU and its member states, are also included in the synthesis. Variations in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, the activities included are a key source of bias between estimates, e.g., anthropogenic and natural fluxes, which in atmospheric inversions are sensitive to the prior geospatial distribution of emissions. For CH4 emissions, over the updated 2015-2019 period, which covers a sufficiently robust number of overlapping estimates, and most importantly the NGHGIs, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, accounting for mean emissions of 20.5 TgCH(4) yr(-1) (EDGARv6.0, last year 2018) and 18.4 TgCH(4) yr(-1) (GAINS, last year 2015), close to the NGHGI estimates of 17 :5 +/- 2 :1 TgCH(4) yr(-1). TD inversion estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also detect natural emissions. Over the same period, high-resolution regional TD inversions report a mean emission of 34 TgCH(4) yr(-1). Coarser-resolution global-scale TD inversions result in emission estimates of 23 and 24 TgCH(4) yr(-1) inferred from GOSAT and surface (SURF) network atmospheric measurements, respectively. The magnitude of natural peatland and mineral soil emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers, lake and reservoir emissions, geological sources, and biomass burning together could account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 8 TgCH(4) yr(-1). For N2O emissions, over the 2015-2019 period, both BU products (EDGARv6.0 and GAINS) report a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.9 TgN(2)Oyr(-1), close to the NGHGI data (0 :8 +/- 55% TgN(2)Oyr(-1)). Over the same period, the mean of TD global and regional inversions was 1.4 TgN(2)Oyr(-1) (excluding TOMCAT, which reported no data). The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future annual updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets at the national and EU27 C UK scales. Future comparability will be enhanced with further steps involving analysis at finer temporal resolutions and estimation of emissions over intra-annual timescales, which is of great importance for CH4 and N2O, and may help identify sector contributions to divergence between prior and posterior estimates at the annual and/or inter-annual scale. Even if currently comparison between CH4 and N2O inversion estimates and NGHGIs is highly uncertain because of the large spread in the inversion results, TD inversions inferred from atmospheric observations represent the most independent data against which inventory totals can be compared. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, TD inversions may arguably emerge as the most powerful tool for verifying emission inventories for CH4, N2O and other GHGs. The referenced dataset srelated to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7553800 (Petrescu et al., 2023).

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  • McGrath, Matthew J.Lab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Peylin, PhilippeLab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Peters, Glen P.Ctr Int Climate Res CICERO, Norway; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Ciais, PhilippeLab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Thompson, Rona L.Norwegian Inst Air Res NILU, Norway; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Tsuruta, AkiFinnish Meteorol Inst, Finland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Brunner, DominikSwiss Fed Labs Mat Sci & Technol EMPA, Switzerland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Kuhnert, MatthiasUniv Aberdeen, Scotland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Matthews, BradleyUmweltbundesamt GmbH, Austria; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Palmer, Paul I.Univ Edinburgh, Scotland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Tarasova, OksanaWorld Meteorol Org WMO, Switzerland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Regnier, PierreUniv Libre Bruxelles, Belgium; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Lauerwald, RonnyUniv Paris Saclay, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Bastviken, DavidLinköpings universitet,Tema Miljöförändring,Filosofiska fakulteten,Uni Syst, Italy(Swepub:liu)davba48 (author)
  • Hoeglund-Isaksson, LenaInt Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Austria; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Winiwarter, WilfriedInt Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Austria; Univ Zielona, Poland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Etiope, GiuseppeIst Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Aalto, TuulaFinnish Meteorol Inst, Finland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Balsamo, GianpaoloEuropean Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, England; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Bastrikov, VladislavSci Partners, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Berchet, AntoineLab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Brockmann, PatrickLab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Ciotoli, GiancarloCNR, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Conchedda, GiuliaFood & Agr Org United Nations FAO, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Crippa, MonicaEuropean Commiss, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Dentener, FrankEuropean Commiss, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Zwaaftink, Christine D. GrootUni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Guizzardi, DiegoEuropean Commiss, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Guenther, DirkUmweltbundesamt UBA, Germany; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Haussaire, Jean-MatthieuSwiss Fed Labs Mat Sci & Technol EMPA, Switzerland; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Houweling, SanderVrije Univ Amsterdam, Netherlands; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Janssens-Maenhout, GreetEuropean Commiss, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Kouyate, MassaerUni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Leip, AdrianEuropean Commiss, Italy; Uni Syst, Italy; European Commiss, Belgium (author)
  • Leppanen, AnttiUniv Helsinki, Finland (author)
  • Lugato, EmanueleEuropean Commiss, Italy (author)
  • Maisonnier, ManonUniv Libre Bruxelles, Belgium (author)
  • Manning, Alistair J.Hadley Ctr, England (author)
  • Markkanen, TiinaFinnish Meteorol Inst, Finland (author)
  • McNorton, JoeEuropean Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, England (author)
  • Muntean, MarilenaEuropean Commiss, Italy (author)
  • Oreggioni, Gabriel D.European Commiss, Italy; Imperial Coll, England (author)
  • Patra, Prabir K.JAMSTEC, Japan (author)
  • Perugini, LuciaCtr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, Italy (author)
  • Pison, IsabelleLab Sci Climat & Environm, France (author)
  • Raivonen, Maarit T.Univ Helsinki, Finland (author)
  • Saunois, MarielleLab Sci Climat & Environm, France (author)
  • Segers, Arjo J.TNO, Netherlands (author)
  • Smith, PeteUniv Aberdeen, Scotland (author)
  • Solazzo, EfisioUni Syst, Italy (author)
  • Tian, HanqinAuburn Univ, AL 36849 USA (author)
  • Tubiello, Francesco N.Food & Agr Org United Nations FAO, Italy (author)
  • Vesala, TimoUniv Helsinki, Finland (author)
  • van der Werf, Guido R.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Netherlands (author)
  • Wilson, ChrisUniv Leeds, England; Univ Leeds, England (author)
  • Zaehle, SoenkeMax Planck Inst Biogeochem MPI BGC, Germany (author)
  • Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Netherlands; Uni Syst, ItalyLab Sci Climat & Environm, France; Uni Syst, Italy (creator_code:org_t)

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  • In:Earth System Science Data: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH15:3, s. 1197-12681866-35081866-3516

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