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  • Sherratt, K.London School of Hygiene & Tropical, UK (author)

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

  • Article/chapterEnglish2023

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • eLife Sciences Publications Ltd,2023
  • electronicrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:lnu-124518
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-124518URI
  • https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.81916DOI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.

Subject headings and genre

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  • Gruson, H.London School of Hygiene & Tropical, UK (author)
  • Grah, R.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (author)
  • Johnson, H.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (author)
  • Niehus, R.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (author)
  • Prasse, B.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (author)
  • Sandmann, F.European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (author)
  • Deuschel, J.Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany (author)
  • Wolffram, D.Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany (author)
  • Abbott, S.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK (author)
  • Ullrich, A.Robert Koch Institute, Germany (author)
  • Gibson, G.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Ray, E. L.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Reich, N. G.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Sheldon, D.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Wang, Y.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Wattanachit, N.University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA (author)
  • Wang, L.Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, USA (author)
  • Trnka, J.Charles University, Czech Republic (author)
  • Obozinski, G.École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland (author)
  • Sun, T.École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland (author)
  • Thanou, D.École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland (author)
  • Pottier, L.Éducation nationale, France (author)
  • Krymova, E.Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Switzerland (author)
  • Meinke, J. H.Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Germany (author)
  • Barbarossa, M. V.Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Germany (author)
  • Leithäuser, N.Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, Germany (author)
  • Mohring, J.Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, Germany (author)
  • Schneider, J.Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, Germany (author)
  • Wlazlo, J.Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics, Germany (author)
  • Fuhrmann, J.Heidelberg University, Germany (author)
  • Lange, B.Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Germany (author)
  • Rodiah, I.Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Germany (author)
  • Baccam, P.IEM, USA (author)
  • Gurung, H.IEM, USA (author)
  • Stage, S.IEM, USA (author)
  • Suchoski, B.IEM, USA (author)
  • Budzinski, J.Independent, Austria (author)
  • Walraven, R.Independent, USA (author)
  • Villanueva, I.Institut d’Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Spain (author)
  • Tucek, V.Institute of Computer Science of the CAS, Czech Republic (author)
  • Smíd, M.Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the CAS, Czech Republic (author)
  • Zajícek, M.Institute of Information Theory and Automation of the CAS, Czech Republic (author)
  • Pérez Alvarez, C.Inverence, Spain (author)
  • Reina, B.Inverence, Spain (author)
  • Bosse, N. I.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK (author)
  • Meakin, S.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK (author)
  • Castro, L.Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA (author)
  • Fairchild, G.Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA (author)
  • Michaud, I.Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA (author)
  • Osthus, D.Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA (author)
  • Alaimo Di Loro, P.LUMSA University, Italy (author)
  • Maruotti, A.LUMSA University, Italy (author)
  • Eclerová, V.Masaryk University, Czech Republic (author)
  • Kraus, A.Masaryk University, Czech Republic (author)
  • Kraus, D.Masaryk University, Czech Republic (author)
  • Pribylova, L.Masaryk University, Czech Republic (author)
  • Dimitris, B.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA (author)
  • Li, M. L.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA (author)
  • Saksham, S.Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA (author)
  • Dehning, J.Max-Planck-Institut für Dynamik und Selbstorganisation, Germany (author)
  • Mohr, S.Max-Planck-Institut für Dynamik und Selbstorganisation, Germany (author)
  • Priesemann, V.Max-Planck-Institut für Dynamik und Selbstorganisation, Germany (author)
  • Redlarski, G.Medical University of Gdansk, Poland (author)
  • Bejar, B.Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland (author)
  • Ardenghi, G.Politecnico di Milano, Italy (author)
  • Parolini, N.Politecnico di Milano, Italy (author)
  • Ziarelli, G.Politecnico di Milano, Italy (author)
  • Bock, WolfgangTechnical University of Kaiserlautern, Germany(Swepub:lnu)woboaa (author)
  • Heyder, S.Technische Universität Ilmenau, Germany (author)
  • Hotz, T.Technische Universität Ilmenau, Germany (author)
  • E. Singh, D.Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain (author)
  • Guzman-Merino, M.Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain (author)
  • Aznarte, J. L.Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Spain (author)
  • Moriña, D.Universitat de Barcelona, Spain (author)
  • Alonso, S.Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain (author)
  • Alvarez, E.Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain (author)
  • López, D.Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain (author)
  • Prats, C.Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain (author)
  • Burgard, J. P.Universität Trier, Germany (author)
  • Rodloff, A.University of Cologne, Germany (author)
  • Zimmermann, T.University of Cologne, Germany (author)
  • Kuhlmann, A.University of Halle, Germany (author)
  • Zibert, J.University of Ljubljana, Slovenia (author)
  • Pennoni, F.University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy (author)
  • Divino, F.University of Molise, Italy (author)
  • Català, M.University of Oxford, UK (author)
  • Lovison, G.University of Palermo, Italy (author)
  • Giudici, P.University of Pavia, Italy (author)
  • Tarantino, B.University of Pavia, Italy (author)
  • Bartolucci, F.University of Perugia, Italy (author)
  • Jona Lasinio, G.University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Italy (author)
  • Mingione, M.University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Italy (author)
  • Farcomeni, A.University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy (author)
  • Srivastava, A.University of Southern California, USA (author)
  • Montero-Manso, P.University of Sydney, Australia (author)
  • Adiga, A.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Hurt, B.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Lewis, B.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Marathe, M.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Porebski, P.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Venkatramanan, S.University of Virginia, USA (author)
  • Bartczuk, R.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Dreger, F.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Gambin, A.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Gogolewski, K.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Gruziel-S?omka, M.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Krupa, B.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Moszynski, A.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Niedzielewski, K.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Nowosielski, J.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Radwan, M.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Rakowski, F.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Semeniuk, M.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Szczurek, E.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Zieli?ski, J.University of Warsaw, Poland (author)
  • Kisielewski, J.University of Warsaw, Polan;University of Bialystok, Poland (author)
  • Pabjan, B.University of Wroclaw, Poland (author)
  • Kheifetz, Y.Universtät Leipzig, Germany (author)
  • Kirsten, H.Universtät Leipzig, Germany (author)
  • Scholz, M.Universtät Leipzig, Germany (author)
  • Biecek, P.Warsaw University of Technology, Poland (author)
  • Bodych, M.Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
  • Filinski, M.Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
  • Idzikowski, R.Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
  • Krueger, T.Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
  • Ozanski, T.Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
  • Bracher, J.Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany (author)
  • Funk, S.London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK (author)
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical, UKEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Sweden (creator_code:org_t)

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  • In:eLIFE: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd122050-084X

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Sherratt, K.
Gruson, H.
Grah, R.
Johnson, H.
Niehus, R.
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Wang, Y.
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