Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16 115 Polish Surveillance Records

MedRxiv
Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.Methods: We analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.Results: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.Conclusions: The proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.

Bawiec, MarekWrocław University of Science and Technology,Poland (author)
Bezborodov, ViktorTechnische Universität Kaiserslautern, Germany (author)
Biecek, PrzemyslawUniversity of Warsaw, Poland (author)
Bock, WolfgangTechnische Universität Kaiserslautern, Germany(Swepub:lnu)woboaa (author)
Bodych, MarcinWrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
Burgard, Jan PabloTrier University, Germany (author)
Krueger, TyllWrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
Migalska, AgataMOCOS International research group, Poland (author)
Mocos, I. R. G.MOCOS International research group, Poland (author)
Ozanski, ThomaszWrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
Pabjan, BarbaraUniversity of Wroc law, Poland (author)
Rosinska, MagdalenaNational Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene, Poland (author)
Sadkowska-Todys, MalgorzataNational Institute of Public Health – National Institute of Hygiene, Poland (author)
Sobczyk, PiotrWrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland (author)
Szczurek, EwaUniversity of Warsaw, Poland (author)
Wrocław Medical University, PolandWrocław University of Science and Technology,Poland (creator_code:org_t)

By the author/editor: Adamik, Barbara; Bawiec, Marek; Bezborodov, Vikt ...; Biecek, Przemysl ...; Bock, Wolfgang; Bodych, Marcin; show more...; Burgard, Jan Pab ...; Krueger, Tyll; Migalska, Agata; Mocos, I. R. G.; Ozanski, Thomasz; Pabjan, Barbara; Rosinska, Magdal ...; Sadkowska-Todys, ...; Sobczyk, Piotr; Szczurek, Ewa; show less...

About the subject

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Health Sciences; and Public Health Gl ...

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