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- Jonzen, NiclasDept Theoret Ecol, Lund Univ, Lund, Sweden,Lund University, Department of Theoretical Ecology (author)
Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus
- Article/chapterEnglish2010
Publisher, publication year, extent ...
- Wiley,2010
- printrdacarrier
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- LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:oru-13159
- https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-13159URI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01601.xDOI
- https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-52716URI
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- Language:English
- Summary in:English
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Notes
- 1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.
Subject headings and genre
- NATURVETENSKAP Matematik Sannolikhetsteori och statistik hsv//swe
- NATURAL SCIENCES Mathematics Probability Theory and Statistics hsv//eng
- climate
- elasticity
- mammals
- matrix models
- Statistics
- Statistik
- Statistik
- Statistics
- NATURAL SCIENCES
Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)
- Pople, TonyDept Primary Ind & Fisheries, Brisbane Qld , Australia,Invasive Plants and Animals, Biosecurity Queensland, Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (author)
- Knape, JonasDept Theoret Ecol, Lund Univ, Lund, Sweden,Lund University, Department of Theoretical Ecology (author)
- Sköld, MartinStockholms universitet,Örebro universitet,Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet,Matematiska institutionen(Swepub:su)mskold (author)
- Dept Theoret Ecol, Lund Univ, Lund, SwedenLund University, Department of Theoretical Ecology (creator_code:org_t)
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- In:Journal of Animal Ecology: Wiley79:1, s. 109-1160021-87901365-2656
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