A Hybrid Time-Varying Parameter Bayesian VAR Analysis of Okun’s Law in the United States

• Employing quarterly data on GDP growth and the unemployment rate ranging from 1948Q3 to 2019Q4, we study the stability of Okun’s law in the United States. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying Bayesian VAR models that allow for time-variation in none, one or both of the equations. Model comparison based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relationship has not been stable. However, the amount of change in the dynamic relationship between the two variables is quantitatively very modest.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Unemployment

GDP growth

Bayesian VAR

Time-varying parameters

Model selection

Economics

Nationalekonomi

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)