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Armed-conflict risk...
Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries
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Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich (author)
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- Donges, Jonathan F. (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
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Donner, Reik V. (author)
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Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2016-07-25
- 2016
- English.
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 113:33, s. 9216-9221
- Related links:
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https://www.pnas.org...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Statsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Political Science (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- climate-related natural disasters
- ethnic fractionalization
- armed conflicts
- event coincidence analysis
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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