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  • McGuire, A. DavidUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks (author)

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

  • Article/chapterEnglish2016

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2016
  • printrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:su-135064
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-135064URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405DOI
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/6404e0b6-63dd-454b-b35e-022bd350948eURI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Koven, CharlesLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (author)
  • Lawrence, David M.National Center for Atmospheric Research (author)
  • Clein, Joy S.University of Alaska Fairbanks (author)
  • Xia, JiangyangEast China Normal University (author)
  • Beer, ChristianStockholm University,Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi(Swepub:su)cbeer (author)
  • Burke, EleanorMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (author)
  • Chen, GuangshengOak Ridge National Laboratory (author)
  • Chen, XiaodongUniversity of Washington, Seattle (author)
  • Delire, ChristineMétéo France (Centre De Météorologie Spatiale) (author)
  • Jafarov, ElchinUniversity of Colorado (author)
  • MacDougall, Andrew H.University of Victoria (author)
  • Marchenko, SergeyUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks (author)
  • Nicolsky, DmitryUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks (author)
  • Peng, ShushiUniversity Grenoble Alpes (author)
  • Rinke, AnnetteBeijing Normal University (author)
  • Saito, KazuyukiJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (author)
  • Zhang, WenxinLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)we4544zh (author)
  • Alkama, RamdaneMétéo France (Centre De Météorologie Spatiale) (author)
  • Bohn, Theodore J.Arizona State University (author)
  • Ciais, PhilippeLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (author)
  • Decharme, BertrandMétéo France (Centre De Météorologie Spatiale) (author)
  • Ekici, AltugStockholm University,Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi (author)
  • Gouttevin, IsabelleUniversity Grenoble Alpes,The French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) (author)
  • Hajima, TomohiroJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (author)
  • Hayes, Daniel J.Oak Ridge National Laboratory (author)
  • Ji, DuoyingBeijing Normal University (author)
  • Krinner, GerhardUniversity Grenoble Alpes (author)
  • Lettenmaier, Dennis P.Broad Institute (author)
  • Luo, YiqiUniversity of Oklahoma (author)
  • Miller, Paul A.Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)nate-pum (author)
  • Moore, John C.Beijing Normal University (author)
  • Romanovsky, VladimirUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks (author)
  • Schädel, ChristinaNorthern Arizona University (author)
  • Schaefer, KevinUniversity of Colorado (author)
  • Schuur, Edward A. G.Northern Arizona University (author)
  • Smith, BenjaminLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)ple-bsm (author)
  • Sueyoshi, TetsuoJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (author)
  • Zhuang, QianlaiPurdue University (author)
  • University of Alaska FairbanksLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (creator_code:org_t)

Related titles

  • In:Global Biogeochemical Cycles30:7, s. 1015-10370886-62361944-9224

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