Predicting alcohol misuse at age 19 from adolescent drinking trajectories

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Predicting alcohol misuse at age 19 from adolescent drinking trajectories

Plenty, Stephanie (author): Stockholms universitet,Institutet för social forskning (SOFI),Institute for Future Studies, Sweden

Evans-Whipp, T. J. (author)

Chan, G. C. (author)

Kelly, A. B. (author)

Toumbourou, J. W. (author)

Patton, G. C. (author)

Hemphill, S. A. (author)

Smith, R. (author)

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(creator_code:org_t)

2018-11-05
2019
English.
In: Substance Use & Misuse. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1082-6084 .- 1532-2491. ; 54:2, s. 247-256

Related links:: https://eprints.qut....; show more...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://doi.org/10.1...; show less...

Journal article (peer-reviewed)

Abstract Subject headings

Background: Alcohol use in adolescence predicts future alcohol misuse. However, the extent to which different patterns of adolescent use present risk remains unclear. Objectives: This study investigated how adolescent trajectories of alcohol consumption during the school years predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Methods: Data were drawn from 707 students from Victoria, Australia, longitudinally followed for 7 years. Five alcohol use trajectories were identified based on the frequency of alcohol use from Grade 6 (age 12 years) to Grade 11 (age 17 years). At age 19 years, participants completed measures indicating Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED), dependency–Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and social harms. Results: At 19 years of age, 64% of participants reported HED, 42% high AUDIT scores (8þ), and 23% social harms. Participants belonging to a steep escalator trajectory during adolescence had twice the odds at 19 years of age of high AUDIT scores and social harms, and three times greater odds of HED than participants whose alcohol use slowly increased. Stable moderate consumption was also associated with an increased risk of HED compared to slowly increasing use. Abstinence predicted a reduced likelihood of all forms of misuse at 19 years of age compared to slowly increased alcohol use. Conclusions: Trajectories of drinking frequency during adolescence predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Although rapid increasing use presents the greatest risk, even slowly increasing drinking predicts increased risk compared to abstinence. The findings indicate that alcohol policies should recommend nonuse and reduced frequency of use during adolescence.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Sociologi -- Sociologi (hsv//swe)
SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Sociology -- Sociology (hsv//eng)
MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Beroendelära (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Substance Abuse (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Alcohol misuse
trajectories
longitudinal
adolescence
young adulthood
Heavy Episodic Drinking
AUDIT

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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By the author/editor: Plenty, Stephani ...; Evans-Whipp, T. ...; Chan, G. C.; Kelly, A. B.; Toumbourou, J. W ...; Patton, G. C.; show more...; Hemphill, S. A.; Smith, R.; show less...

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SOCIAL SCIENCES: SOCIAL SCIENCES; and Sociology; and Sociology

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Health Sciences; and Substance Abuse

Articles in the publication: Substance Use & ...

By the university: Stockholm University

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