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Future projections ...
Future projections of cyclone activity in the Arctic for the 21st century from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
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- Akperov, Mirseid (author)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Rinke, Annette (author)
- Beijing Normal University,Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
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- Mokhov, Igor I. (author)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS,Lomonosov Moscow State University
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- Semenov, Vladimir A. (author)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS,Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences
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- Parfenova, Mariya R. (author)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Matthes, Heidrun (author)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
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- Adakudlu, Muralidhar (author)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
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- Boberg, Fredrik (author)
- Danish Meteorological Institute
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- Christensen, Jens H. (author)
- University of Copenhagen
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- Dembitskaya, Mariya A. (author)
- A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS
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- Dethloff, Klaus (author)
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
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- Fettweis, Xavier (author)
- University of Liège
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- Gutjahr, Oliver (author)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
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- Heinemann, Günther (author)
- University of Trier
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- Koenigk, Torben (author)
- Stockholm University,Stockholms universitet,Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU),Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden
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- Koldunov, Nikolay (author)
- University of Bremen,Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
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- Laprise, René (author)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Mottram, Ruth (author)
- Danish Meteorological Institute
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- Nikiéma, Oumarou (author)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Sein, Dmitry (author)
- Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS,Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
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- Sobolowski, Stefan (author)
- Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
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- Winger, Katja (author)
- University Of Quebec In Montreal
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- Zhang, Wenxin (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Copenhagen
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AM. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, RAS Beijing Normal University (creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier BV, 2019
- 2019
- English.
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In: Global and Planetary Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8181 .- 1872-6364. ; 182
- Related links:
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https://epic.awi.de/...
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
Close
- Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Arctic
- Cyclone activity
- Climate change
- Regional climate models
- CMIP5 models
- CORDEX
- Arctic
- Cyclone activity
- Climate change
- Regional climate models
- CORDEX
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Akperov, Mirseid
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Rinke, Annette
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Mokhov, Igor I.
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Semenov, Vladimi ...
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Parfenova, Mariy ...
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Matthes, Heidrun
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show more...
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Adakudlu, Murali ...
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Boberg, Fredrik
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Christensen, Jen ...
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Dembitskaya, Mar ...
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Dethloff, Klaus
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Fettweis, Xavier
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Gutjahr, Oliver
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Heinemann, Günth ...
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Koenigk, Torben
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Koldunov, Nikola ...
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Laprise, René
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Mottram, Ruth
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Nikiéma, Oumarou
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Sein, Dmitry
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Sobolowski, Stef ...
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Winger, Katja
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Zhang, Wenxin
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Meteorology and ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
- Articles in the publication
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Global and Plane ...
- By the university
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Stockholm University
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Lund University