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The Pliocene Model ...
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 : large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
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Haywood, Alan M. (author)
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Tindall, Julia C. (author)
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Dowsett, Harry J. (author)
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Dolan, Aisling M. (author)
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Foley, Kevin M. (author)
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Hunter, Stephen J. (author)
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Hill, Daniel J. (author)
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Chan, Wing-Le (author)
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Abe-Ouchi, Ayako (author)
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Stepanek, Christian (author)
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Lohmann, Gerrit (author)
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Chandan, Deepak (author)
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Peltier, W. Richard (author)
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Tan, Ning (author)
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Contoux, Camille (author)
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Ramstein, Gilles (author)
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Li, Xiangyu (author)
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Zhang, Zhongshi (author)
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Guo, Chuncheng (author)
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Nisancioglu, Kerim H. (author)
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- Zhang, Qiong (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi
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- Li, Qiang (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi
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Kamae, Youichi (author)
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Chandler, Mark A. (author)
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Sohl, Linda E. (author)
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Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. (author)
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Feng, Ran (author)
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Brady, Esther C. (author)
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von der Heydt, Anna S. (author)
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Baatsen, Michiel L. J. (author)
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Lunt, Daniel J. (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2020-11-04
- 2020
- English.
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:6, s. 2095-2123
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https://doi.org/10.5...
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https://cp.copernicu...
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Abstract
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- The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Haywood, Alan M.
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Tindall, Julia C ...
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Dowsett, Harry J ...
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Dolan, Aisling M ...
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Foley, Kevin M.
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Hunter, Stephen ...
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show more...
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Hill, Daniel J.
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Chan, Wing-Le
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Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
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Stepanek, Christ ...
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Lohmann, Gerrit
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Chandan, Deepak
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Peltier, W. Rich ...
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Tan, Ning
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Contoux, Camille
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Ramstein, Gilles
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Li, Xiangyu
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Zhang, Zhongshi
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Guo, Chuncheng
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Nisancioglu, Ker ...
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Zhang, Qiong
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Li, Qiang
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Kamae, Youichi
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Chandler, Mark A ...
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Sohl, Linda E.
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Otto-Bliesner, B ...
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Feng, Ran
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Brady, Esther C.
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von der Heydt, A ...
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Baatsen, Michiel ...
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Lunt, Daniel J.
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show less...
- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
- Articles in the publication
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Climate of the P ...
- By the university
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Stockholm University