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| Fältnamn | Indikatorer | Metadata |
|---|---|---|
| 000 | 02749naa a2200361 4500 | |
| 001 | oai:DiVA.org:su-193218 | |
| 003 | SwePub | |
| 008 | 210517s2021 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
| 024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-1932182 URI |
| 024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1017/S09502688210005582 DOI |
| 040 | a (SwePub)su | |
| 041 | a engb eng | |
| 042 | 9 SwePub | |
| 072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
| 072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
| 100 | 1 | a Küchenhoff, Helmut4 aut |
| 245 | 1 0 | a Analysis of the early COVID-19 epidemic curve in Germany by regression models with change points |
| 264 | 1 | c 2021 |
| 338 | a print2 rdacarrier | |
| 520 | a We analysed the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic curve from March to the end of April 2020 in Germany. We use statistical models to estimate the number of cases with disease onset on a given day and use back-projection techniques to obtain the number of new infections per day. The respective time series are analysed by a trend regression model with change points. The change points are estimated directly from the data. We carry out the analysis for the whole of Germany and the federal state of Bavaria, where we have more detailed data. Both analyses show a major change between 9 and 13 March for the time series of infections: from a strong increase to a decrease. Another change was found between 25 March and 29 March, where the decline intensified. Furthermore, we perform an analysis stratified by age. A main result is a delayed course of the pandemic for the age group 80 + resulting in a turning point at the end of March. Our results differ from those by other authors as we take into account the reporting delay, which turned out to be time dependent and therefore changes the structure of the epidemic curve compared to the curve of newly reported cases. | |
| 650 | 7 | a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//swe |
| 650 | 7 | a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology0 (SwePub)303022 hsv//eng |
| 653 | a Change point | |
| 653 | a COVID-19 | |
| 653 | a epidemiology | |
| 700 | 1 | a Günther, Felix4 aut |
| 700 | 1 | a Höhle, Michaelu Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen4 aut0 (Swepub:su)mhh |
| 700 | 1 | a Bender, Andreas4 aut |
| 710 | 2 | a Stockholms universitetb Matematiska institutionen4 org |
| 773 | 0 | t Epidemiology and Infectiong 149, s. 1-7q 149<1-7x 0950-2688x 1469-4409 |
| 856 | 4 | u https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000558y Fulltext |
| 856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-193218 |
| 856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821000558 |
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