Probabilistic Risk Management in Project Portfolios

• We discuss a novel method for business risk handling in project portfolios under strong uncertainty, where we utilise event trees including adverse consequences together with mitigation costs and expected effects, where consequence and event probabilities and costs are represented by random parameters. The method has been developed to support large-scale real-life applications of portfolio risk management, where the properties of the probabilities and values are entered by domain experts with often very limited knowledge of probability theory, and we demonstrate how this can be accomplished with minor information loss. The method is currently in use in one of the world’s largest telecom equipment manufacturers which has a vast project portfolio of tenders, with each successful tender subsequently becoming an order in the order book portfolio.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Information Systems (hsv//eng)

Keyword

data- och systemvetenskap

Computer and Systems Sciences

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

kon (subject category)