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Model-derived causa...
Model-derived causal explanations are inherently constrained by hidden assumptions and context : The example of Baltic cod dynamics
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- Banitz, Thomas (author)
- UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Leipzig, Germany.
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- Schlüter, Maja (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
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- Lindkvist, Emilie, 1973- (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
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- Radosavljevic, Sonja (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
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- Johansson, Lars-Göran, 1950- (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Uppsala, Sweden,Avdelningen för teoretisk filosofi,Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.,Stockholm Univ, Sweden; Uppsala Univ, Sweden
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- Ylikoski, Petri (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Institutet för analytisk sociologi, IAS,Filosofiska fakulteten,Univ Helsinki, Finland
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- Martínez-Peña, Rodrigo, 1980- (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Linköping University, Sweden,Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.;Linköping Univ, Inst Analyt Sociol, Linköping, Sweden.,Institutet för analytisk sociologi, IAS,Filosofiska fakulteten
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- Grimm, Volker (author)
- UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Leipzig, Germany.
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UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Ecol Modelling, Leipzig, Germany Stockholm Resilience Centre (creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier BV, 2022
- 2022
- English.
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In: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 156
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Models are widely used for investigating cause-effect relationships in complex systems. However, often different models yield diverging causal claims about specific phenomena. Therefore, critical reflection is needed on causal insights derived from modeling. As an example, we here compare ecological models dealing with the dynamics and collapse of cod in the Baltic Sea. The models addressed different specific questions, but also vary widely in system conceptualization and complexity. With each model, certain ecological factors and mechanisms were analyzed in detail, while others were included but remained unchanged, or were excluded. Model-based causal analyses of the same system are thus inherently constrained by diverse implicit assumptions about possible determinants of causation. In developing recommendations for human action, awareness is needed of this strong context dependence of causal claims, which is often not entirely clear. Model comparisons can be supplemented by integrating findings from multiple models and confronting models with multiple observed patterns.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- HUMANIORA -- Filosofi, etik och religion -- Filosofi (hsv//swe)
- HUMANITIES -- Philosophy, Ethics and Religion -- Philosophy (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Annan samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Other Social Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Causation
- Ecological models
- Social-ecological systems
- Context dependence
- Model comparison
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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