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Global warming over...
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model
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- Wunderling, Nico (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA
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Winkelmann, Ricarda (author)
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- Rockström, Johan (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
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Loriani, Sina (author)
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- Armstrong McKay, David I. (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK
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Ritchie, Paul D. L. (author)
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Sakschewski, Boris (author)
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- Donges, Jonathan F. (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-12-22
- 2023
- English.
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:1, s. 75-82
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Social och ekonomisk geografi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Social and Economic Geography (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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