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Scenario Analysis o...
Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea
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- Eriksson Hägg, Hanna (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM)
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- Humborg, Christoph (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för tillämpad miljövetenskap (ITM),Baltic Nest Institute
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- Mörth, Carl-Magnus (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute
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- Medina, Miguel Rodriguez (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Baltic Nest Institute
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- Wulff, Fredrik (author)
- Stockholms universitet,Systemekologiska institutionen
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2010-03-15
- 2010
- English.
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In: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 44:7, s. 2379-2385
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan.
Keyword
- NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN; NITROGEN BUDGETS; DRAINAGE-BASIN; AGRICULTURE; FUTURE; LOADS; EUTROPHICATION; TRANSPORT; FLUXES; MODEL
- NATURAL SCIENCES
- NATURVETENSKAP
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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