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A model using conco...
A model using concomitant markers for predicting outcome in human papillomavirus positive oropharyngeal cancer
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- Bersani, Cinzia (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Mints, Michael (author)
- Karolinska Institutet,Umeå universitet,Institutionen för kirurgisk och perioperativ vetenskap,Dept. of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
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Tertipis, Nikolaos (author)
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- Haeggblom, Linnea (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Sivars, Lars (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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Ährlund-Richter, Andreas (author)
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Vlastos, Andrea (author)
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Smedberg, Cecilia (author)
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Grün, Nathalie (author)
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- Munck-Wikland, Eva (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Näsman, Anders (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Ramqvist, Torbjörn (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Dalianis, Tina (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier, 2017
- 2017
- English.
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In: Oral Oncology. - : Elsevier. - 1368-8375 .- 1879-0593. ; 68, s. 53-59
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- Objective: Head-neck cancer therapy has become intensified. With radiotherapy alone, 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) is 80% for HPV-positive TSCC/BOTSCC and better for patients with favorable characteristics, suggesting therapy could be tapered for some, decreasing side-effects. Therefore, we built a model to predict progression-free survival for patients with HPV-positive TSCC and BOTSCC. Material and methods: TSCC/BOTSCC patients treated curatively between 2000 and 2011, with HPV16 DNA/E7 mRNA positive tumors examined for CD8(+) TILs, HPV16 mRNA and HLA class I expression were included. Patients were split randomly 65/35 into training and validation sets, and LASSO regression was used to select a model in the training set, the performance of which was evaluated in the validation set. Results: 258 patients with HPV DNA/E7 mRNA positive tumors could be included, 168 and 90 patients in the respective sets. No treatment improved prognosis compared to radiotherapy alone. CD8(+) TIL counts and young age were the strongest predictors of survival, followed by T-stage <3 and presence of HPV16 E2 mRNA. The model had an area under curve (AUC) of 76%. A model where the presence of three of four of these markers defined good prognosis captured 56% of non-relapsing patients with a positive predictive value of 98% in the validation set. Furthermore, the model identified 35% of our cohort that was over-treated and could safely have received de-escalated therapy. Conclusion: CD8(+) TIL counts, age, T-stage and E2 expression could predict progression-free survival, identifying patients eligible for randomized trials with milder treatment, potentially reducing side effects without worsening prognosis.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Odontologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Dentistry (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- HPV
- Oropharyngeal cancer tonsillar cancer
- Base of tongue cancer
- Biomarkers
- Survival
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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To the university's database
- By the author/editor
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Bersani, Cinzia
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Mints, Michael
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Tertipis, Nikola ...
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Haeggblom, Linne ...
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Sivars, Lars
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Ährlund-Richter, ...
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show more...
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Vlastos, Andrea
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Smedberg, Cecili ...
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Grün, Nathalie
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Munck-Wikland, E ...
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Näsman, Anders
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Ramqvist, Torbjö ...
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Dalianis, Tina
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show less...
- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Cancer and Oncol ...
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Dentistry
- Articles in the publication
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Oral Oncology
- By the university
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Umeå University
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Karolinska Institutet