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Comparison of progn...
Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals : a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies
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- Smith, Todd (author)
- Imperial College London
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- Muller, David C. (author)
- Imperial College London
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- Moons, Karel G. M. (author)
- University Medical Center Utrecht
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- Cross, Amanda J. (author)
- Imperial College London,International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization
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- Johansson, Mattias (author)
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization
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- Ferrari, Pietro (author)
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization
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- Fagherazzi, Guy (author)
- Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP)
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- Peeters, Petra H. M. (author)
- University Medical Center Utrecht
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- Severi, Gianluca (author)
- Centre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP)
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- Hüsing, Anika (author)
- German Cancer Research Centre
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- Kaaks, Rudolf (author)
- German Cancer Research Centre
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- Tjonneland, Anne (author)
- Danish Cancer Society
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- Olsen, Anja (author)
- Danish Cancer Society
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- Overvad, Kim (author)
- Aarhus University
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- Bonet, Catalina (author)
- Bellvitge University Hospital-IDIBELL
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- Rodriguez-Barranco, Miguel (author)
- Andalusian School Of Public Health (EASP)
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- Huerta, Jose Maria (author)
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)
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- Barricarte Gurrea, Aurelio (author)
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)
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- Bradbury, Kathryn E. (author)
- University of Oxford
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- Trichopoulou, Antonia (author)
- Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens
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- Bamia, Christina (author)
- Hellenic Health Foundation, Athens
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- Orfanos, Philippos (author)
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
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- Palli, Domenico (author)
- Cancer Research and Prevention Institute (ISPO)
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- Pala, Valeria (author)
- Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori
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- Vineis, Paolo (author)
- Italian Institute for Genomic Medicine (IIGM)
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- Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas (author)
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
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- Ohlsson, Bodil (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups
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- Harlid, Sophia (author)
- Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi
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- van Guelpen, Bethany (author)
- Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi
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- Skeie, Guri (author)
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø
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- Weiderpass, Elisabete (author)
- Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research
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Jenab, Mazda (author)
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- Murphy, Neil (author)
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization
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- Riboli, Elio (author)
- Imperial College London
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- Gunter, Marc J. (author)
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization
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- Aleksandrova, Krasimira Jekova (author)
- German Institute of Human Nutrition
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- Tzoulaki, Ioanna (author)
- Imperial College London
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-04-03
- 2019
- English.
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In: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 68, s. 672-683
- Related links:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- cancer prevention
- colorectal cancer
- colorectal cancer screening
- epidemiology
- medical statistics
- cancer prevention
- colorectal cancer
- colorectal cancer screening
- epidemiology
- medical statistics
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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Smith, Todd
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Muller, David C.
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Moons, Karel G. ...
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Cross, Amanda J.
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Johansson, Matti ...
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Ferrari, Pietro
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Fagherazzi, Guy
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Peeters, Petra H ...
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Severi, Gianluca
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Hüsing, Anika
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Kaaks, Rudolf
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Tjonneland, Anne
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Olsen, Anja
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Overvad, Kim
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Bonet, Catalina
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Rodriguez-Barran ...
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Huerta, Jose Mar ...
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Barricarte Gurre ...
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Bradbury, Kathry ...
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Trichopoulou, An ...
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Bamia, Christina
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Orfanos, Philipp ...
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Palli, Domenico
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Pala, Valeria
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Vineis, Paolo
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Bueno-de-Mesquit ...
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Ohlsson, Bodil
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Harlid, Sophia
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van Guelpen, Bet ...
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Skeie, Guri
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Weiderpass, Elis ...
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Jenab, Mazda
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Murphy, Neil
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Riboli, Elio
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Gunter, Marc J.
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Aleksandrova, Kr ...
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Tzoulaki, Ioanna
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Gut
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Umeå University
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Lund University