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  • Smith, ToddImperial College London (author)

Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals : a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies

  • Article/chapterEnglish2019

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2018-04-03
  • BMJ Publishing Group Ltd,2019
  • electronicrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-146375
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-146375URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2017-315730DOI
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9b52bdcc-ae92-4363-abeb-5fbfa89f8fc6URI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Muller, David C.Imperial College London (author)
  • Moons, Karel G. M.University Medical Center Utrecht (author)
  • Cross, Amanda J.Imperial College London,International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization (author)
  • Johansson, MattiasInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization (author)
  • Ferrari, PietroInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization (author)
  • Fagherazzi, GuyCentre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP) (author)
  • Peeters, Petra H. M.University Medical Center Utrecht (author)
  • Severi, GianlucaCentre for Research in Epidemiology and Population Health (CESP) (author)
  • Hüsing, AnikaGerman Cancer Research Centre (author)
  • Kaaks, RudolfGerman Cancer Research Centre (author)
  • Tjonneland, AnneDanish Cancer Society (author)
  • Olsen, AnjaDanish Cancer Society (author)
  • Overvad, KimAarhus University (author)
  • Bonet, CatalinaBellvitge University Hospital-IDIBELL (author)
  • Rodriguez-Barranco, MiguelAndalusian School Of Public Health (EASP) (author)
  • Huerta, Jose MariaCIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP) (author)
  • Barricarte Gurrea, AurelioCIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP) (author)
  • Bradbury, Kathryn E.University of Oxford (author)
  • Trichopoulou, AntoniaHellenic Health Foundation, Athens (author)
  • Bamia, ChristinaHellenic Health Foundation, Athens (author)
  • Orfanos, PhilipposNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens (author)
  • Palli, DomenicoCancer Research and Prevention Institute (ISPO) (author)
  • Pala, ValeriaIstituto Nazionale dei Tumori (author)
  • Vineis, PaoloItalian Institute for Genomic Medicine (IIGM) (author)
  • Bueno-de-Mesquita, BasNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) (author)
  • Ohlsson, BodilLund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)kir-boh (author)
  • Harlid, SophiaUmeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi(Swepub:lu)mikr-sha (author)
  • van Guelpen, BethanyUmeå University,Umeå universitet,Onkologi(Swepub:umu)beyvan99 (author)
  • Skeie, GuriUiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø (author)
  • Weiderpass, ElisabeteCancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research (author)
  • Jenab, Mazda (author)
  • Murphy, NeilInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization (author)
  • Riboli, ElioImperial College London (author)
  • Gunter, Marc J.International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization (author)
  • Aleksandrova, Krasimira JekovaGerman Institute of Human Nutrition (author)
  • Tzoulaki, IoannaImperial College London (author)
  • Imperial College LondonUniversity Medical Center Utrecht (creator_code:org_t)

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  • In:Gut: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd68, s. 672-6830017-57491468-3288

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