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Search: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:umu-151102" > Quantifying excess ...

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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00005821naa a2200781 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:umu-151102
003SwePub
008180827s2018 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
0247 a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-1511022 URI
0247 a https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.10026292 DOI
040 a (SwePub)umu
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
1001 a Guo, Yuming4 aut
2451 0a Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios :b A multicountry time series modelling study
264 c 2018-07-31
264 1b Public Library of Science (PLoS),c 2018
338 a electronic2 rdacarrier
520 a BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
650 7a MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAPx Hälsovetenskapx Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin0 (SwePub)303032 hsv//swe
650 7a MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCESx Health Sciencesx Occupational Health and Environmental Health0 (SwePub)303032 hsv//eng
7001 a Gasparrini, Antonio4 aut
7001 a Li, Shanshan4 aut
7001 a Sera, Francesco4 aut
7001 a Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria4 aut
7001 a de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline4 aut
7001 a Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento4 aut
7001 a Lavigne, Eric4 aut
7001 a Tawatsupa, Benjawan4 aut
7001 a Punnasiri, Kornwipa4 aut
7001 a Overcenco, Ala4 aut
7001 a Correa, Patricia Matus4 aut
7001 a Ortega, Nicolas Valdes4 aut
7001 a Kan, Haidong4 aut
7001 a Osorio, Samuel4 aut
7001 a Jaakkola, Jouni J K4 aut
7001 a Ryti, Niilo R I4 aut
7001 a Goodman, Patrick G4 aut
7001 a Zeka, Ariana4 aut
7001 a Michelozzi, Paola4 aut
7001 a Scortichini, Matteo4 aut
7001 a Hashizume, Masahiro4 aut
7001 a Honda, Yasushi4 aut
7001 a Seposo, Xerxes4 aut
7001 a Kim, Ho4 aut
7001 a Tobias, Aurelio4 aut
7001 a Íñiguez, Carmen4 aut
7001 a Forsberg, Bertilu Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)befo0001
7001 a Oudin Åström, Danielu Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin4 aut0 (Swepub:umu)daas0014
7001 a Guo, Yue Leon4 aut
7001 a Chen, Bing-Yu4 aut
7001 a Zanobetti, Antonella4 aut
7001 a Schwartz, Joel4 aut
7001 a Dang, Tran Ngoc4 aut
7001 a Van, Dung Do4 aut
7001 a Bell, Michelle L4 aut
7001 a Armstrong, Ben4 aut
7001 a Ebi, Kristie L4 aut
7001 a Tong, Shilu4 aut
7102 a Umeå universitetb Yrkes- och miljömedicin4 org
7730 t PLoS Medicined : Public Library of Science (PLoS)g 15:7q 15:7x 1549-1277x 1549-1676
8564 u https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629y Fulltext
8564 u https://umu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1242014/FULLTEXT01.pdfx primaryx Raw objecty fulltext:print
8564 u https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629&type=printable
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-151102
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629

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