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Trends and cyclical...
Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25year period 1989-2013 : a multicentre prospective registration study
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Patterson, Christopher C. (author)
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Harjutsalo, Valma (author)
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Rosenbauer, Joachim (author)
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Neu, Andreas (author)
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Cinek, Ondrej (author)
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Skrivarhaug, Torild (author)
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Rami-Merhar, Birgit (author)
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Soltesz, Gyula (author)
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Svensson, Jannet (author)
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Parslow, Roger C. (author)
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Castell, Conxa (author)
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Schoenle, Eugen J. (author)
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Bingley, Polly J. (author)
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- Dahlquist, Gisela (author)
- Umeå universitet,Pediatrik
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Jarosz-Chobot, Przemyslawa K. (author)
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Marciulionyte, Dale (author)
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Roche, Edna F. (author)
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Rothe, Ulrike (author)
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Bratina, Natasa (author)
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Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Constantin (author)
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Weets, Ilse (author)
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Kocova, Mirjana (author)
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Cherubini, Valentino (author)
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Putarek, Natasa Rojnic (author)
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Debeaufort, Carine E. (author)
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Samardzic, Mira (author)
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Green, Anders (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-11-28
- 2019
- English.
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In: Diabetologia. - : Springer. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 62:3, s. 408-417
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Abstract
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- Aims/hypothesis: Against a background of a near-universally increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes, recent reports from some countries suggest a slowing in this increase. Occasional reports also describe cyclical variations in incidence, with periodicities of between 4 and 6years.Methods: Age/sex-standardised incidence rates for the 0- to 14-year-old age group are reported for 26 European centres (representing 22 countries) that have registered newly diagnosed individuals in geographically defined regions for up to 25years during the period 1989-2013. Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of increase and test for cyclical patterns. Joinpoint regression software was used to fit segmented log-linear relationships to incidence trends.Results: Significant increases in incidence were noted in all but two small centres, with a maximum rate of increase of 6.6% per annum in a Polish centre. Several centres in high-incidence countries showed reducing rates of increase in more recent years. Despite this, a pooled analysis across all centres revealed a 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%, 3.9%) per annum increase in incidence rate, although there was some suggestion of a reduced rate of increase in the 2004-2008 period. Rates of increase were similar in boys and girls in the 0- to 4-year-old age group (3.7% and 3.7% per annum, respectively) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age group (3.4% and 3.7% per annum, respectively), but were higher in boys than girls in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (3.3% and 2.6% per annum, respectively). Significant 4year periodicity was detected in four centres, with three centres showing that the most recent peak in fitted rates occurred in 2012.Conclusions/interpretation: Despite reductions in the rate of increase in some high-risk countries, the pooled estimate across centres continues to show a 3.4% increase per annum in incidence rate, suggesting a doubling in incidence rate within approximately 20years in Europe. Although four centres showed support for a cyclical pattern of incidence with a 4year periodicity, no plausible explanation for this can be given.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Endokrinologi och diabetes (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Endocrinology and Diabetes (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Cyclical variation
- Epidemiology
- Incidence
- Temporal change
- Type 1 diabetes mellitus
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Patterson, Chris ...
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Harjutsalo, Valm ...
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Rosenbauer, Joac ...
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Neu, Andreas
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Cinek, Ondrej
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Skrivarhaug, Tor ...
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show more...
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Rami-Merhar, Bir ...
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Soltesz, Gyula
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Svensson, Jannet
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Parslow, Roger C ...
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Castell, Conxa
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Schoenle, Eugen ...
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Bingley, Polly J ...
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Dahlquist, Gisel ...
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Jarosz-Chobot, P ...
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Marciulionyte, D ...
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Roche, Edna F.
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Rothe, Ulrike
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Bratina, Natasa
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Ionescu-Tirgovis ...
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Weets, Ilse
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Kocova, Mirjana
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Cherubini, Valen ...
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Putarek, Natasa ...
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Debeaufort, Cari ...
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Samardzic, Mira
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Green, Anders
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- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Endocrinology an ...
- Articles in the publication
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Diabetologia
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Umeå University