Against All Odds : Multicriteria Decision Making with Hazard Prediction Maps Depicting Uncertainty

• We report on a multicriteria decision-making study where participants were asked to purchase a house shown on maps that include hazard prediction information. We find that participants decided to buy different houses, depending on whether uncertainty is shown on the map display and on the type of uncertainty visualization (i.e., varying color value, focus, or texture). We also find that participants’ individual differences with respect to their assessed risk-taking behavior influences their spatial decision making with maps. Risk-takers seem to underestimate the dangers of natural hazards when prediction uncertainties are depicted. We are thus able to shed additional light on how people use visualized uncertainty information to make complex map-based decisions. We can demonstrate that not only are design characteristics relevant for map-based reasoning and decision-making outcomes but so are the decision makers’ individual background and the map-based decision-making context.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Psykologi -- Tillämpad psykologi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Psychology -- Applied Psychology (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Människa-datorinteraktion (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Human Computer Interaction (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Data- och informationsvetenskap -- Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Computer and Information Sciences -- Information Systems (hsv//eng)

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Social och ekonomisk geografi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Social and Economic Geography (hsv//eng)

Keyword

experiment

risk maps

risk perception

uncertainty

visualization

human-computer interaction

människa-datorinteraktion

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)