A century of divorce : long-term socioeconomic restructuring and the divorce rate in Sweden 1915-2010

• Increased divorce rates over the past century are linked to changing macroeconomic conditions, increased female independence and welfare state expenditure, but few studies have assessed these long-term relationships at the macro level. Research has focused on Anglo-Saxon contexts and not considered developments in vanguard countries like Sweden that determined their role as sociodemographic precursors and early representatives of a society with a high divorce rate. We examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions together with increased female independence and welfare expenditure on the divorce rate by performing time series analysis, using annual aggregate data from Sweden covering almost acentury (1915-2010). We separate between short-run (business cycle), medium-run, and longrun (structural) impacts. Results show that separating between time horizons is important for understanding the determinants of divorce. Increasing divorce rates were part of a structural process, affecting the family through increasing state support for families and work opportunities for women. In the short to medium run demographic factors were key determinants. It is important to consider contexts like Sweden to understand how welfare state expansion can counterbalance economic cycles and modify the relationship between economic conditions and divorce by making divorce accessible through subsidies and services, even in times of recession.

Subject headings

HUMANIORA  -- Historia och arkeologi -- Historia (hsv//swe)

HUMANITIES  -- History and Archaeology -- History (hsv//eng)

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Ekonomisk historia (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economic History (hsv//eng)

Keyword

divorce

macro-level determinants

Sweden

time series analysis

befolkningsstudier

Population studies

ekonomisk historia

Economic History

Econometrics

ekonometri

Historical Demography

historisk demografi

divorce

macro-level determinants

Sweden

time series analysis

Publication and Content Type

vet (subject category)

rap (subject category)