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Heat effects on mor...
Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities.
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Baccini, Michela (author)
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Biggeri, Annibale (author)
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Accetta, Gabriele (author)
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Kosatsky, Tom (author)
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Katsouyanni, Klea (author)
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Analitis, Antonis (author)
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Anderson, H Ross (author)
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Bisanti, Luigi (author)
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D'Ippoliti, Daniela (author)
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Danova, Jana (author)
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- Forsberg, Bertil (author)
- Umeå universitet,Yrkes- och miljömedicin
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Medina, Sylvia (author)
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Paldy, Anna (author)
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Rabczenko, Daniel (author)
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Schindler, Christian (author)
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Michelozzi, Paola (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2008
- 2008
- English.
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In: Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.). - 1531-5487. ; 19:5, s. 711-9
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. METHODS: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. RESULTS: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4 degrees C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3 degrees C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.
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- By the author/editor
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Baccini, Michela
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Biggeri, Annibal ...
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Accetta, Gabriel ...
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Kosatsky, Tom
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Katsouyanni, Kle ...
-
Analitis, Antoni ...
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show more...
-
Anderson, H Ross
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Bisanti, Luigi
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D'Ippoliti, Dani ...
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Danova, Jana
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Forsberg, Bertil
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Medina, Sylvia
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Paldy, Anna
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Rabczenko, Danie ...
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Schindler, Chris ...
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Michelozzi, Paol ...
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show less...
- Articles in the publication
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Epidemiology (Ca ...
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Umeå University