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Development of machine learning models to predict posterior capsule rupture based on the EUREQUO registry

Triepels, Ron J. M. A. (author)
Department of Data Analytics and Digitalisation, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
Segers, Maartje H. M. (author)
University Eye Clinic, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, Netherlands,Yukioka Hospital
Rosen, Paul (author)
Department of Ophthalmology, Oxford Eye Hospital, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Nuijts, Rudy M. M. A. (author)
University Eye Clinic, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, Netherlands,Yukioka Hospital
van den Biggelaar, Frank J. H. M. (author)
University Eye Clinic, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, Netherlands,Yukioka Hospital
Henry, Ype P. (author)
Department of Ophthalmology, Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam, Netherlands,Amsterdam UMC - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Stenevi, Ulf (author)
Department of Ophthalmology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden
Tassignon, Marie-José (author)
Department of Ophthalmology, Antwerp University Hospital, Edegem, Belgium
Young, David (author)
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Behndig, Anders (author)
Umeå University,Umeå universitet,Oftalmiatrik
Lundström, Mats (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Oftalmologi, Lund,Sektion IV,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Ophthalmology, Lund,Section IV,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine
Dickman, Mor M. (author)
University Eye Clinic, Maastricht University Medical Center+, Maastricht, Netherlands,Yukioka Hospital
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2023-02-15
2023
English.
In: Acta Ophthalmologica. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1755-375X .- 1755-3768. ; 101:6, s. 644-650
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Purpose: To evaluate the performance of different probabilistic classifiers to predict posterior capsule rupture (PCR) prior to cataract surgery. Methods: Three probabilistic classifiers were constructed to estimate the probability of PCR: a Bayesian network (BN), logistic regression (LR) model, and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network. The classifiers were trained on a sample of 2 853 376 surgeries reported to the European Registry of Quality Outcomes for Cataract and Refractive Surgery (EUREQUO) between 2008 and 2018. The performance of the classifiers was evaluated based on the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and compared to existing scoring models in the literature. Furthermore, direct risk factors for PCR were identified by analysing the independence structure of the BN. Results: The MLP network predicted PCR overall the best (AUPRC 13.1 ± 0.41%), followed by the BN (AUPRC 8.05 ± 0.39%) and the LR model (AUPRC 7.31 ± 0.15%). Direct risk factors for PCR include preoperative best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), year of surgery, operation type, anaesthesia, target refraction, other ocular comorbidities, white cataract, and corneal opacities. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the MLP network performs better than existing scoring models in the literature, despite a relatively low precision at high recall. Consequently, implementing the MLP network in clinical practice can potentially decrease the PCR rate.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Oftalmologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Ophthalmology (hsv//eng)

Keyword

artificial intelligence
Bayesian network
cataract surgery
logistic regression
machine learning
multi-layer perceptron
posterior capsule rupture
artificial intelligence
Bayesian network
cataract surgery
logistic regression
machine learning
multi-layer perceptron
posterior capsule rupture

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ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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