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A new approach to m...
A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
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- Brännäs, Kurt (author)
- Umeå universitet,Nationalekonomi
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- Hellström, Jörgen (author)
- Umeå universitet,Nationalekonomi
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- Nordström, Jonas (author)
- Umeå universitet,Nationalekonomi
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier, 2002
- 2002
- English.
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In: International Journal of Forecasting. - : Elsevier. - 0169-2070 .- 1872-8200. ; 18:1, s. 19-30
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Abstract
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- Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small. © 2002 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.
Subject headings
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Econometrics
- Ekonometri
- Econometrics
- ekonometri
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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