Explaining demobilization in the wake of civil conflict

• The demobilisation of rival armed forces in negotiated transitions from civil war to peace represents a practical challenge and a theoretical puzzle. From the point of view of the former warring parties, demobilisation is hazardous and hence requires a minimum level of trust, which often requires that both sides take reciprocal steps to demonstrate minimum levels of commitments. On the other hand, existing literature emphasises the role of third-party guarantors in creating the security necessary for demobilisation. We argue that the credibility of third-party guarantors is largely unexplained, and instead propose that the former warring parties themselves can overcome distrust by implementing political accommodation measures before demobilisation, such as transitional power sharing, release of prisoners of war, and amnesty. In an analysis of 34 peace processes, we find support for our expectation that implementation of accommodation measures facilitates demobilisation processes, whereas deployment of UN peacekeeping troops has no effect. These findings have significant policy implications for ongoing peace processes on how to achieve successful demobilisation in a war to peace transition.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Annan samhällsvetenskap (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Other Social Sciences (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Political accommodation

demobilisation

third-party guarantee

intrastate armed conflicts

peace agreement

Peace and Conflict Research

Freds- och konfliktforskning

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)