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A mixed-frequency B...
A mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression with a steady-state prior
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- Ankargren, Sebastian (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Statistiska institutionen
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- Unosson, Måns (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Statistiska institutionen
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- Yang, Yukai (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Statistiska institutionen
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Department of Statistics, Uppsala University, 2018
- English 42 s.
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Series: Working paper / Department of Statistics, Uppsala University ; 2018:3
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- We consider a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model allowing for an explicit priorspecication for the included variables' `steady states' (unconditional means) for data measuredat dierent frequencies. We propose a Gibbs sampler to sample from the posteriordistribution derived from a normal prior for the steady state and a normal-inverse-Wishart prior for the dynamics and error covariance. Moreover, we suggest a numerical algorithmfor computing the marginal data density that is useful for nding appropriate values for thenecessary hyperparameters. We evaluate the proposed model by applying it to a real-timedata set where we forecast Swedish GDP growth. The results indicate that the inclusionof high-frequency data improves the accuracy of low-frequency forecasts, in particular forshorter time horizons. The proposed model thus facilitates a simple and helpful way ofincorporating information about the long run through the steady-state prior as well asabout the near future through its ability to cope with mixed frequencies of the data.
Subject headings
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- vet (subject category)
- rap (subject category)
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