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Spatiotemporal and Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Dengue at the Province Level in Vietnam, 2013-2015 : Clustering Analysis and Regression Model
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- Ashmore, Polly (author)
- London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London WC1H 9SH, England.
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- Lindahl, Johanna F. (author)
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för medicinsk biokemi och mikrobiologi,Int Livestock Res Inst, Hanoi 10000, Vietnam.;Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Clin Sci, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden.,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper (KV),Department of Clinical Sciences,International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI),Uppsala University
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- Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J. (author)
- London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London WC1H 9SH, England.
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- London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London WC1H 9SH, England Institutionen för medicinsk biokemi och mikrobiologi (creator_code:org_t)
- 2020-05-19
- 2020
- English.
- In: Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. - : MDPI. - 2414-6366. ; 5:2
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
Subject headings
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- Dengue is a serious infectious disease threat in Vietnam, but its spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors are not currently well understood at the province level across the country and on a multiannual scale. We explore spatial trends, clusters and outliers in dengue case counts at the province level from 2011-2015 and use this to extract spatiotemporal variables for regression analysis of the association between dengue case counts and selected spatiotemporal and socioeconomic variables from 2013-2015. Dengue in Vietnam follows anticipated spatial trends, with a potential two-year cycle of high-high clusters in some southern provinces. Small but significant associations are observed between dengue case counts and mobility, population density, a province's dengue rates the previous year, and average dengue rates two years previous in first and second order contiguous neighbours. Significant associations were not found between dengue case counts and housing pressure, access to electricity, clinician density, province-adjusted poverty rate, percentage of children below one vaccinated, or percentage of population in urban settings. These findings challenge assumptions about socioeconomic and spatiotemporal risk factors for dengue, and support national prevention targeting in Vietnam at the province level. They may also be of wider relevance for the study of other arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis, Zika, and Chikungunya.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- vector-borne disease
- arbovirus
- dengue fever
- Vietnam
- spatiotemporal
- socioeconomic
- province
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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