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Projecting long-ter...
Projecting long-term armed conflict risk : An underappreciated field of inquiry?
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- de Bruin, Sophie P. (author)
- Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Princetonlaan 8A, NL-3508 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.;PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands
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- Hoch, Jannis M. (author)
- Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Princetonlaan 8A, NL-3508 CB Utrecht, Netherlands
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- von Uexkull, Nina (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning
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- Buhaug, Halvard (author)
- Peace Res Inst Oslo, Hausmann Gate 3, N-0186 Oslo, Norway.;Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Sociol & Polit Sci, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
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- Demmers, Jolle (author)
- Univ Utrecht, Fac Humanities, Conflict Studies & Hist Int Relat, Drift 10, NL-3512 BS Utrecht, Netherlands
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- Visser, Hans (author)
- PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands
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- Wanders, Niko (author)
- Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Princetonlaan 8A, NL-3508 CB Utrecht, Netherlands
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Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Princetonlaan 8A, NL-3508 CB Utrecht, Netherlands;PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Princetonlaan 8A, NL-3508 CB Utrecht, Netherlands (creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier, 2022
- 2022
- English.
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In: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 72
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research.
Subject headings
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Statsvetenskap -- Statsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Political Science -- Political Science (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Climate change
- Future armed conflict
- Scenario development
- Science-policy interface
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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