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LIBRIS Formathandbok  (Information om MARC21)
FältnamnIndikatorerMetadata
00017382naa a2201993 4500
001oai:DiVA.org:uu-512888
003SwePub
008230929s2023 | |||||||||||000 ||eng|
009oai:prod.swepub.kib.ki.se:152036868
024a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-5128882 URI
024a https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-12 DOI
024a http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:1520368682 URI
040 a (SwePub)uud (SwePub)ki
041 a engb eng
042 9 SwePub
072 7a ref2 swepub-contenttype
072 7a art2 swepub-publicationtype
100a Grossmann, Igoru Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.4 aut
2451 0a Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
264 c 2023-02-09
264 1b Springer Nature,c 2023
338 a print2 rdacarrier
520 a How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
650 7a NATURVETENSKAPx Matematikx Sannolikhetsteori och statistik0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//swe
650 7a NATURAL SCIENCESx Mathematicsx Probability Theory and Statistics0 (SwePub)101062 hsv//eng
700a Rotella, Amanda A.u Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.4 aut
700a Hutcherson, Cendriu Univ Toronto Scarborough, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Sharpinskyi, Konstantynu Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Varnum, Michael E. W.u Arizona State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tempe, AZ USA.4 aut
700a Achter, Sebastian K.u Hamburg Univ Technol, Inst Management Accounting & Simulat, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.4 aut
700a Dhami, Mandeepu Middlesex Univ London, Dept Psychol, London, England.4 aut
700a Guo, Xinqi Evieu Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Expt Psychol, San Diego, CA USA.4 aut
700a Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.u Toronto Metropolitan Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Mandel, Davidu Def Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.;York Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Raes, Louisu Tilburg Univ, Dept Econ, Tilburg, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Tay, Louisu Purdue Univ, Dept Psychol Sci, W Lafayette, IN USA.4 aut
700a Vie, Aymericu Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford, England.4 aut
700a Wagner, Lisau Univ Zurich, Jacobs Ctr Prod Youth Dev, Zurich, Switzerland.4 aut
700a Adamkovic, Matusu Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.;Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Social Sci, CSPS, Bratislava, Slovakia.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.4 aut
700a Arami, Arashu Univ Waterloo, Dept Mech & Mechatron Engn, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Univ Hlth Network, Toronto Rehabil Inst KITE, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Arriaga, Patriciau Iscte Univ, CIS, Inst Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.4 aut
700a Bandara, Kasunu Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Ctr Data Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Banik, Gabrielu Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.4 aut
700a Bartos, Frantiseku Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Baskin, Ernestu St Josephs Univ, Haub Sch Business, Dept Food Mkt, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Bergmeir, Christophu Monash Univ, Dept Data Sci & Artificial Intelligence, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Bialek, Michal K.u Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.4 aut
700a Borsting, Caroline T.u Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.4 aut
700a Browne, Dillon M.u Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Caruso, Eugeneu Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA USA.4 aut
700a Chen, Rongu Dominican Univ Calif, Dept Psychol, San Rafael, CA USA.4 aut
700a Chie, Bin-Tzong J.u Tamkang Univ, Dept Ind Econ, New Taipei City, Taiwan.4 aut
700a Chopik, William N.u Michigan State Univ, Dept Psychol, E Lansing, MI USA.4 aut
700a Collins, Robertu Def Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Cong, Chin Wen G.4 aut
700a Conway, Lucianu Grove City Coll, Psychol Dept, Grove City, PA USA.4 aut
700a Davis, Matthew V.u Siena Coll, Dept Econ, Loudonville, NY USA.4 aut
700a Day, Martin A.u Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Psychol, St John, NF, Canada.4 aut
700a Dhaliwal, Nathan D.u Univ British Columbia, UBC Sauder Sch Business, Vancouver, BC, Canada.4 aut
700a Durham, Justinu Univ Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.4 aut
700a Dziekan, Martyna T.u Adam Mickiewicz Univ, Fac Psychol & Cognit Sci, Poznan, Poland.4 aut
700a Elbaek, Christianu Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.4 aut
700a Shuman, Ericu Univ Groningen, Dept Psychol, Groningen, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Fabrykant, Marharytau HSE Univ, Expert Inst, Lab Comparat Studies Mass Consciousness, Moscow, Russia.;Belarusian State Univ, Fac Philosophy & Social Sci, Minsk, BELARUS.4 aut
700a Firat, Mustafa T.u Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Sociol, Nijmegen, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Fong, Geoffrey A.u Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Ontario Inst Canc Res, Toronto, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Frimer, Jeremy M.u Univ Winnipeg, Dept Psychol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.4 aut
700a Gallegos, Jonathan B.u Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.4 aut
700a Goldberg, Simonu Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Counseling Psychol, Madison, WI USA.4 aut
700a Gollwitzer, Antonu BI Norwegian Business Sch, Dept Leadership & Org Behav, Oslo, Norway.;Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Ctr Adapt Rat, Berlin, Germany.4 aut
700a Goyal, Juliau Univ Waterloo, Sch Publ Hlth Sci, Waterloo, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.u TU Dortmund Univ, Dortmund, Germany.;ESCP Business Sch, Paris, France.4 aut
700a Gronlund, Scottu Univ Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.4 aut
700a Hafenbraedl, Sebastianu IESE Business Sch, Barcelona, Spain.4 aut
700a Hartanto, Andree J.u Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.4 aut
700a Hirshberg, Matthew J.u Univ Wisconsin Madison, Ctr Hlth Minds, Madison, WI USA.4 aut
700a Hornsey, Matthewu Univ Queensland, Business Sch, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.4 aut
700a Howe, Piers D. L.u Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Izadi, Anooshau Univ Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dept Mkt, Dartmouth, MA USA.4 aut
700a Jaeger, Bastianu Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Kacmar, Pavolu Pavol Jozef Safarik Univ Kosice, Fac Arts, Dept Psychol, Kosice, Slovakia.4 aut
700a Kim, Yeun Joonu Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Judge Business Sch, Cambridge, England.4 aut
700a Krenzler, Ruslan G.u Hermes Germany GmbH, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.4 aut
700a Lannin, Danielu Illinois State Univ, Dept Psychol, Normal, IL USA.4 aut
700a Lin, Hung-Wenu Natl Pingtung Univ, Dept Business Adm, Pingtung, Taiwan.4 aut
700a Lou, Nigel Mantouu Univ Victoria, Dept Psychol, Victoria, BC, Canada.;Univ Victoria, Ctr Youth & Soc, Victoria, BC, Canada.4 aut
700a Lua, Verity Y. Q. W.u Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.4 aut
700a Lukaszewski, Aaron L.u Calif State Univ, Dept Psychol, Fullerton, CA USA.;Calif State Univ, Ctr Study Human Nat, Fullerton, CA USA.4 aut
700a Ly, Albert R.u Loma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.4 aut
700a Madan, Christopheru Univ Nottingham, Nottingham, England.4 aut
700a Maier, Maximilian M.u UCL, Dept Expt Psychol, London, England.4 aut
700a Majeed, Nadyanna S.u Singapore Management Univ, Singapore, Singapore.4 aut
700a March, David A.u Florida State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tallahassee, FL USA.4 aut
700a Marsh, Abigailu Georgetown Univ, Dept Psychol, Washington, DC USA.4 aut
700a Misiak, Michalu Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.;Univ Oxford, Sch Anthropol, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.4 aut
700a Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M.u Univ York, Sch Business & Soc, York, England.4 aut
700a Napan, Jaimeu Loma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.4 aut
700a Nicholas, Jonathanu Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.4 aut
700a Nikolopoulos, Konstantinosu Univ Durham, IHRR Forecasting Lab, Durham, England.4 aut
700a Otterbring, Tobiasu Univ Agder, Sch Business & Law, Dept Management, Kristiansand, Norway.;Inst Retail Econ, Stockholm, Sweden.4 aut
700a Paruzel-Czachura, Mariolau Univ Silesia Katowice, Inst Psychol, Katowice, Poland.;Univ Penn, Penn Ctr Neuroaesthet, Dept Neurol, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Pauer, Shivau Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Protzko, Johnu Cent Connecticut State Univ, New Britain, CT USA.4 aut
700a Raffaelli, Quentinu Univ Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.4 aut
700a Ropovik, Ivanu Charles Univ Prague, Inst Res & Dev Educ, Fac Educ, Prague, Czech Republic.;Univ Presov, Fac Educ, Presov, Slovakia.4 aut
700a Ross, Robert M.u Macquarie Univ, Sch Psychol, Sydney, NSW, Australia.4 aut
700a Roth, Yefimu Univ Haifa, Dept Human Serv, Haifa, Israel.4 aut
700a Roysamb, Espenu Univ Oslo, Promenta Ctr, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway.4 aut
700a Schnabel, Landonu Cornell Univ, Dept Sociol, Ithaca, NY USA.4 aut
700a Schuetz, Astridu Univ Bamberg, Inst Psychol, Bamberg, Germany.4 aut
700a Seifert, Matthiasu IE Univ, IE Business Sch, Madrid, Spain.4 aut
700a Sevincer, A. T.u Univ Hamburg, Fac Psychol & Human Movement Sci, Hamburg, Germany.4 aut
700a Sherman, Garrick T.u Univ Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Simonsson, Ottou Karolinska Institutet4 aut
700a Sung, Ming-Chienu Univ Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.4 aut
700a Tai, Chung-Chingu Univ Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.4 aut
700a Talhelm, Thomasu Univ Chicago, Booth Sch Business, Chicago, IL USA.4 aut
700a Teachman, Bethany A.u Univ Virginia, Dept Psychol, Charlottesville, VA USA.4 aut
700a Tetlock, Philip E.u Univ Penn, Psychol Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch Business, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Thomakos, Dimitriosu Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Econ, Athens, Greece.4 aut
700a Tse, Dwight C. K.u Univ Strathclyde, Sch Psychol Sci & Hlth, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland.4 aut
700a Twardus, Oliver J.u Univ Guelph, Dept Psychol, Guelph, ON, Canada.4 aut
700a Tybur, Joshua M.u Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.4 aut
700a Ungar, Lyleu Univ Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Vandermeulen, Daanu Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Psychol Dept, Jerusalem, Israel.4 aut
700a Vaughan Williams, Leightonu Nottingham Trent Univ, Dept Econ, Nottingham, England.4 aut
700a Vosgerichian, Hrag A.u Northwestern Univ, Dept Management & Org, Evanston, IL USA.4 aut
700a Wang, Qiu Cornell Univ, Coll Human Ecol, Ithaca, NY USA.4 aut
700a Wang, Keu Harvard Univ, Harvard Kennedy Sch, Cambridge, MA USA.4 aut
700a Whiting, Mark E.u Univ Penn, Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Operat Informat & Decis Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.4 aut
700a Wollbrant, Conny E.u Univ St Andrews, Sch Econ & Finance, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.4 aut
700a Yang, Taou Univ North Carolina Wilmington, Cameron Sch Business, Dept Management, Wilmington, NC USA.4 aut
700a Yogeeswaran, Kumaru Univ Canterbury, Sch Psychol Speech & Hearing, Christchurch, New Zealand.4 aut
700a Yoon, Sangsuku Univ Dayton, Dept Mkt, Dayton, OH USA.4 aut
700a Alves, Ventura R.u Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;ISG Univ Lusofona, Lisbon, Portugal.4 aut
700a Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.u Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Univ Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.;Univ Arizona, Cognit Sci, Tucson, AZ USA.4 aut
700a Bloom, Paul A.u Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.4 aut
700a Boyles, Anthonyu Ephemer Al, Atlanta, GA USA.4 aut
700a Charis, Loou Boston Univ, Questrom Sch Business, Boston, MA USA.4 aut
700a Choi, Mingyeongu Pusan Natl Univ, Inst Social Sci Res, Pusan, South Korea.4 aut
700a Darling-Hammond, Seanu Univ Calif Los Angeles, Fielding Sch Publ Hlth, Los Angeles, CA USA.4 aut
700a Ferguson, Z. E.u Univ Washington, Psychol Dept, Seattle, WA USA.4 aut
700a Kaiser, Cheryl R.u Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.4 aut
700a Karg, Simon T.u Aarhus Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Aarhus, Denmark.4 aut
700a Ortega, Alberto Lopezu Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.4 aut
700a Mahoney, Loriu Wright State Univ, Coll Sci & Math, Fairborn, OH USA.4 aut
700a Marsh, Melvin S.u Georgia Southern Univ, Dept Psychol, Statesboro, GA USA.4 aut
700a Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.u Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Michaels, Eli K.u Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Berkeley, CA USA.4 aut
700a Millroth, Philipu Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi4 aut0 (Swepub:uu)phimi602
700a Naqvi, Jeanean B.u Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Psychol, Pittsburgh, PA USA.4 aut
700a Ng, Weitingu Singapore Univ Social Sci, Sch Humanities & Behav Sci, Singapore, Singapore.4 aut
700a Rutledge, Robb B.u Yale Univ, Dept Psychol, New Haven, CT USA.4 aut
700a Slattery, Peteru Monash Univ, Behav Works Australia, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Smiley, Adam H.u Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.4 aut
700a Strijbis, Oliveru Univ Zurich, Inst Polit Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.4 aut
700a Sznycer, Danielu Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Psychol, Stillwater, OK USA.4 aut
700a Tsukayama, Eliu Univ Hawaii West Oahu, Dept Business Adm, Kapolei, HI USA.4 aut
700a van Loon, Austinu Stanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.4 aut
700a Voelkel, Jan G.u Stanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.4 aut
700a Wienk, Margaux N. A.u Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.4 aut
700a Wilkening, Tomu Univ Melbourne, Dept Econ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.4 aut
700a Borsting, CK4 aut
700a Chopik, WJ4 aut
710a Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.b Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.4 org
773t Nature Human Behaviourd : Springer Natureg 7, s. 484-501q 7<484-501x 2397-3374
8564 8u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-512888
8564 8u https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
8564 8u http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:152036868

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