Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register

Ahmad Kiadaliri, AliasgharLund University,Lunds universitet,Hälsoekonomi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Health Economics,Lund University Research Groups (author)

The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models ( , aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 ( ). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased.

Clarke, PhilipLund University,Lunds universitet,Hälsoekonomi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Health Economics,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)med-phc (author)
Gerdtham, UlfLund University,Lunds universitet,Nationalekonomiska institutionen,Ekonomihögskolan,Hälsoekonomi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Economics,Lund University School of Economics and Management, LUSEM,Health Economics,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)smi-uge (author)
Nilsson, PeterLund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)medf-pni (author)
Eliasson, Björn,1959Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin,Institute of Medicine(Swepub:gu)xelibj (author)
Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia,1962Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin,Institute of Medicine(Swepub:gu)xgudso (author)
Steen Carlsson, KatarinaLund University,Lunds universitet,Hälsoekonomi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Health Economics,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)smi-ks0 (author)
HälsoekonomiForskargrupper vid Lunds universitet (creator_code:org_t)

By the author/editor: Ahmad Kiadaliri, ...; Clarke, Philip; Gerdtham, Ulf; Nilsson, Peter; Eliasson, Björn, ...; Gudbjörnsdottir, ...; show more...; Steen Carlsson, ...; show less...

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MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Clinical Medicin ...; and Endocrinology an ...

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