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Environmental varia...
Environmental variability can select for optimism or pessimism
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McNamara, John M. (author)
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Trimmer, Pete C. (author)
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- Eriksson, Anders, 1975 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för marin ekologi,Department of Marine Ecology
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Marshall, James A R (author)
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Houston, Alasdair I. (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2010-11-11
- 2011
- English.
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 14:1, s. 58-62
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Abstract
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- We propose operational definitions of reproductive optimism and pessimism; optimism involves behaving in a way that gives too much weight (in terms of producing surviving offspring) to positive events, pessimism gives too much weight to negative events. Natural selection maximizes the long-term growth of a lineage rather than short-term measures such as numbers of offspring. Consequently, optimism or pessimism can be favoured by natural selection, even though such biases appear irrational from a short-term perspective. We investigate the evolution of optimism in a metapopulation. The circumstances of a patch change over time, independently of other patches. With sufficient dispersal between patches, stochasticity affects members of a lineage largely independently and optimism is favoured. With little dispersal, the temporal fluctuations of a patch affect many members similarly; pessimism is then favoured. Our results establish that the spatial and temporal structure of the environment is crucial in determining the direction of evolved biases. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Metapopulation
- Natural selection
- Optimism
- Rationality
- Spatial variation
- Stochasticity
- Temporal variation
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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