Comprehensive risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced subsidence

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Sundell, Jonas,1984Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology (author)

Comprehensive risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced subsidence

Article/chapterEnglish2019

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2019-01-16
Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2019

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LIBRIS-ID:oai:gup.ub.gu.se/279083
https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/279083URI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-01647-xDOI
https://research.chalmers.se/publication/507911URI
https://research.chalmers.se/publication/509844URI

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Language:English

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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

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© 2019, The Author(s). We present a method for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence when planning for sub-surface infrastructure. Since groundwater drawdown and related subsidence can occur at large distances from the points of inflow, the large spatial extent often implies heterogeneous geological conditions that cannot be described in complete detail. This calls for estimation of uncertainties in all components of the cause-effect chain with probabilistic methods. In this study, we couple four probabilistic methods into a comprehensive model for economic risk quantification: a geostatistical soil-stratification model, an inverse calibrated groundwater model, an elasto-plastic subsidence model, and a model describing the resulting damages and costs on individual buildings and constructions. Groundwater head measurements, hydraulic tests, statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties and an inventory of buildings are inputs to the models. In the coupled method, different design alternatives for risk reduction measures are evaluated. Integration of probabilities and damage costs result in an economic risk estimate for each alternative. Compared with the risk for a reference alternative, the best prior alternative is identified as the alternative with the highest expected net benefit. The results include spatial probabilistic risk estimates for each alternative where areas with significant risk are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modelling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned railway tunnel in Varberg, Sweden.

Subject headings and genre

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Geoteknik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Geotechnical Engineering hsv//eng
NATURVETENSKAP Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Earth and Related Environmental Sciences hsv//eng
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Infrastrukturteknik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Infrastructure Engineering hsv//eng
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Vattenteknik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Water Engineering hsv//eng
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Transportteknik och logistik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Transport Systems and Logistics hsv//eng
TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Annan samhällsbyggnadsteknik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Other Civil Engineering hsv//eng
NATURVETENSKAP Matematik Sannolikhetsteori och statistik hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Mathematics Probability Theory and Statistics hsv//eng
Cost–benefit analysis
Groundwater drawdown
Infrastructure planning
Risk assessment
Subsidence
groundwater drawdown

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

Haaf, Ezra,1985Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg(Swepub:cth)ezra (author)
Tornborg, Johannes,1984Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)tornborg (author)
Rosen, Lars,1962Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology(Swepub:cth)rosen (author)
Chalmers tekniska högskolaInstitutionen för geovetenskaper (creator_code:org_t)

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In:Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment: Springer Science and Business Media LLC33:2, s. 427-4491436-32401436-3259

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