Projected changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed in 1.5 degrees C-4.0 degrees C global warming levels

• Understanding future changes in global terrestrial near-surface wind speed (NSWS) in specific global warming level (GWL) is crucial for climate change adaption. Previous studies have projected the NSWS changes; however, the changes of NSWS with different GWLs have yet to be studied. In this paper, we employ the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model large ensembles to evaluate the contributions of different GWLs to the NSWS changes. The results show that the NSWS decreases over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-to-high latitudes and increases over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) as the GWL increases by 1.5 degrees C-4.0 degrees C relative to the preindustrial period, and that these characteristics are more significant with the stronger GWL. The probability density of the NSWS shifts toward weak winds over NH and strong winds over SH between the current climate and the 4.0 degrees C GWL. Compared to 1.5 degrees C GWL, the NSWS decreases -0.066 m s(-1) over NH and increases +0.065 m s(-1) over SH with 4.0 degrees C GWL, especially for East Asia and South America, the decrease and increase are most significant, which reach -0.21 and +0.093 m s(-1), respectively. Changes in the temperature gradient induced by global warming could be the primary factor causing the interhemispheric asymmetry of future NSWS changes. Intensified global warming induces the reduction in Hadley, Ferrell, and Polar cells over NH and the strengthening of the Hadley cell over SH could be another determinant of asymmetry changes in NSWS between two hemispheres.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)

Keyword

near-surface wind speed

large ensembles

projection

global warming

MPI-ESM

land-use

northern-hemisphere

eastern china

cover change

variability

reanalysis

trends

friction

recovery

increase

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)