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Development and val...
Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model in open abdomen patients for entero-atmospheric fistula
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Cristaudo, A. T. (author)
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Hitos, K. (author)
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- Gunnarsson, Ronny K, 1955 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa,Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine
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Decosta, A. (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-02-04
- 2022
- English.
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In: ANZ Journal of Surgery. - : Wiley. - 1445-1433 .- 1445-2197. ; 92:5, s. 1070-1084
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Abstract
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- Background: Laparostomy or Open Abdomen (OA) has matured into an effective strategy in the management of abdominal catastrophe. Single prognostic factors have been identified in a previous systematic review regarding entero-atmospheric fistula (EAF). Unfortunately, no prognostic multivariable model for EAF exist. The aim was to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model from a retrospective cohort study involving three hospital's databases. Methods: Fifty-seven variables were evaluated to develop a multivariable model. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for on a developmental data set from two hospitals. Receiver operator characteristics analysis with area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were performed on the developmental data set (internal validation) as well as on an additional validation data set from another hospital (external validation). Results: Five-hundred and forty-eight patients managed with an OA. Two variables remained in the multivariable prediction model for EAF. The AUC for EAF on internal validation were 0.74 (95% CI: 0.58–0.86) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.67–0.92) on external validation. Conclusions: A multivariable prediction model for EAF was externally validated and an easy-to-use probability nomogram was constructed using the two predictor variables. Level of evidence: III; prognostic. © 2022 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Allmänmedicin (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- General Practice (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Kirurgi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Surgery (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- acute care surgery
- general surgery
- ICU
- trauma
- trauma acute care
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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