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Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM
- Andres-Martin, Miguel (author)
- Azorin-Molina, Cesar (author)
-
- Shen, Cheng (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences
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- Fernández-Alvarez, José C. (author)
- Gimeno, Luis (author)
- Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. (author)
- Zha, Jinlin (author)
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- (creator_code:org_t)
- 2023
- 2023
- English.
- In: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. - 0077-8923 .- 1749-6632. ; 1529:1, s. 101-108
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
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- This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985–2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under highshared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- CMIP6
- GCM versus WRF-RCM
- Iberian Peninsula
- projection
- surface wind speed
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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