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- Folland, Chris K. (author)
The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present and future
- Article/chapterEnglish2009
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- 2009
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- LIBRIS-ID:oai:gup.ub.gu.se/76705
- https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/76705URI
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- Language:English
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- Summer climate in the North Atlantic-European sector possesses a principal pattern of year-to-year variability that is the parallel of the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. This ‘Summer North Atlantic Oscillation’ (SNAO) is defined here as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of observed summertime extratropical North Atlantic pressure at mean sea level. It is shown to be characterised by a more northerly location and smaller spatial scale than its winter counterpart. The SNAO is also detected by cluster analysis and has a near equivalent barotropic structure on daily and monthly time scales. Although of lesser amplitude than its wintertime counterpart, the SNAO exerts a strong influence on Northern European rainfall, temperature and cloudiness through changes in the position of the North Atlantic storm track. It is, therefore, of key importance in generating summer climate extremes, including flooding, drought and heat stress in North Western Europe. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is known to influence summertime European climate; however, interannual variations of the SNAO are only weakly influenced by ENSO. On interdecadal time scales, both modelling and observational results indicate that SNAO variations are partly related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It is shown that SNAO variations extend far back in time, as evidenced by reconstructions of SNAO variations back to 1706 using tree-ring records. Very long instrumental records, such as Central England Temperature, are used to validate the reconstruction. Finally, two climate models are shown to simulate the present-day SNAO and predict a trend towards a more positive index phase in the future under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This implies the long-term likelihood of increased summer drought for North Western Europe
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- Knight, J (author)
- Linderholm, Hans W.,1968Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences(Swepub:gu)xlinha (author)
- Fereday, D (author)
- Ineson, S (author)
- Hurrell, James (author)
- Göteborgs universitetInstitutionen för geovetenskaper (creator_code:org_t)
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- In:Journal of Climate22:5, s. 1082-11030894-8755
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