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Assessing uncertain...
Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
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- Alexander, Peter (author)
- University of Edinburgh,Scotland’s Rural College
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- Prestele, Reinhard (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Verburg, Peter H. (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Arneth, Almut (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Baranzelli, Claudia (author)
- European Commission, Italy
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- Batista e Silva, Filipe (author)
- European Commission, Italy
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- Brown, Calum (author)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Butler, Adam (author)
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland
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- Calvin, Katherine (author)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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- Dendoncker, Nicolas (author)
- University of Namur
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- Doelman, Jonathan C. (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven
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- Dunford, Robert (author)
- University of Oxford
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- Engstrom, Kerstin (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Eitelberg, David (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Fujimori, Shinichiro (author)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies
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- Harrison, Paula A. (author)
- Lancaster University
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- Hasegawa, Tomoko (author)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies
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- Havlik, Petr (author)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Holzhauer, Sascha (author)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Humpenöder, Florian (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris (author)
- European Commission, Italy
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- Jain, Atul K. (author)
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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- Krisztin, Tamás (author)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Kyle, Page (author)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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- Lavalle, Carlo (author)
- European Commission, Italy
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- Lenton, Tim (author)
- University of Exeter
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- Liu, Jiayi (author)
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland
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- Meiyappan, Prasanth (author)
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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- Popp, Alexander (author)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Powell, Tom (author)
- University of Exeter
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- Sands, Ronald D. (author)
- United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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- Schaldach, Rüdiger (author)
- University of Kassel
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- Stehfest, Elke (author)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Bilthoven
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- Steinbuks, Jevgenijs (author)
- World Bank (WB)
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- Tabeau, Andrzej (author)
- Wageningen University
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- van Meijl, Hans (author)
- Wageningen University
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- Wise, Marshall A. (author)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
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Rounsevell, Mark D A (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2016-08-20
- 2017
- English.
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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http://nora.nerc.ac....
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Cropland
- Land cover
- Land use
- Model inter-comparison
- Uncertainty
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Alexander, Peter
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Prestele, Reinha ...
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Verburg, Peter H ...
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Arneth, Almut
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Baranzelli, Clau ...
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Batista e Silva, ...
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show more...
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Brown, Calum
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Butler, Adam
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Calvin, Katherin ...
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Dendoncker, Nico ...
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Doelman, Jonatha ...
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Dunford, Robert
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Engstrom, Kersti ...
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Eitelberg, David
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Fujimori, Shinic ...
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Harrison, Paula ...
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Hasegawa, Tomoko
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Havlik, Petr
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Holzhauer, Sasch ...
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Humpenöder, Flor ...
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Jacobs-Crisioni, ...
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Jain, Atul K.
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Krisztin, Tamás
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Kyle, Page
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Lavalle, Carlo
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Lenton, Tim
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Liu, Jiayi
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Meiyappan, Prasa ...
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Popp, Alexander
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Powell, Tom
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Sands, Ronald D.
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Schaldach, Rüdig ...
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Stehfest, Elke
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Steinbuks, Jevge ...
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Tabeau, Andrzej
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van Meijl, Hans
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Wise, Marshall A ...
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Rounsevell, Mark ...
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
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- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
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AGRICULTURAL SCI ...
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and Other Agricultur ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
- Articles in the publication
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Global Change Bi ...
- By the university
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Lund University