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Occurrence of crop ...
Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970
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- Wang, Chenzhi (author)
- Peking University
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- Wang, Xuhui (author)
- Peking University
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- Jin, Zhenong (author)
- University of Minnesota
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- Müller, Christoph (author)
- Leibniz Association,Climate Resilience
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- Pugh, Thomas A.M. (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Birmingham
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- Chen, Anping (author)
- Colorado State University
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- Wang, Tao (author)
- University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science
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- Huang, Ling (author)
- Peking University
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- Zhang, Yuan (author)
- Peking University
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- Li, Laurent X.Z. (author)
- Paris-Sorbonne University
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- Piao, Shilong (author)
- CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science,Peking University,University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2021-12-09
- 2022
- English.
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In: Nature Food. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-1355. ; 3:1, s. 57-65
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Abstract
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- Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970–2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Wang, Chenzhi
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Wang, Xuhui
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Jin, Zhenong
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Müller, Christop ...
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Pugh, Thomas A.M ...
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Chen, Anping
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show more...
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Wang, Tao
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Huang, Ling
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Zhang, Yuan
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Li, Laurent X.Z.
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Piao, Shilong
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
- Articles in the publication
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Nature Food
- By the university
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Lund University