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A Continental-Scale...
A Continental-Scale Validation of Ecosystem Service Models
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- Willcock, Simon (author)
- Bangor University,University of Southampton
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- Hooftman, Danny A.P. (author)
- Lactuca: Environmental Data Analyses and Modelling,Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford
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- Balbi, Stefano (author)
- Basque Centre for Climate Change
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- Blanchard, Ryan (author)
- Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
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- Dawson, Terence P. (author)
- King's College London
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- O’Farrell, Patrick J. (author)
- University of Cape Town,Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
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- Hickler, Thomas (author)
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre,Goethe University
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- Hudson, Malcolm D. (author)
- University of Southampton
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- Lindeskog, Mats (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
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- Martinez-Lopez, Javier (author)
- Basque Centre for Climate Change
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- Mulligan, Mark (author)
- King's College London
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- Reyers, Belinda (author)
- Stellenbosch University
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- Shackleton, Charlie (author)
- Rhodes University
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- Sitas, Nadia (author)
- Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
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- Villa, Ferdinando (author)
- Basque Foundation for Science,Basque Centre for Climate Change
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- Watts, Sophie M. (author)
- University of Southampton
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- Eigenbrod, Felix (author)
- University of Southampton
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- Bullock, James M. (author)
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2019-04-22
- 2019
- English.
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In: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 22:8, s. 1902-1917
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Africa
- beneficiary
- carbon
- charcoal
- complexity
- firewood
- grazing
- natural capital
- water
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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Ecosystems
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- By the author/editor
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Willcock, Simon
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Hooftman, Danny ...
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Balbi, Stefano
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Blanchard, Ryan
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Dawson, Terence ...
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O’Farrell, Patri ...
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show more...
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Hickler, Thomas
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Hudson, Malcolm ...
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Lindeskog, Mats
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Martinez-Lopez, ...
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Mulligan, Mark
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Reyers, Belinda
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Shackleton, Char ...
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Sitas, Nadia
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Villa, Ferdinand ...
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Watts, Sophie M.
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Eigenbrod, Felix
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Bullock, James M ...
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
- Articles in the publication
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Ecosystems
- By the university
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Lund University