onr:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:7b744595-8661-48e1-b1ba-7272e6acd1b2"
Search: onr:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:7b744595-8661-48e1-b1ba-7272e6acd1b2" > Climate and paramet...
- 1 of 1
- Previous record
- Next record
- To hitlist
Climate and parameter sensitivity and induced uncertainties in carbon stock projections for European forests (using LPJ-GUESS 4.0)
-
- Oberpriller, Johannes (author)
- University of Regensburg
-
- Herschlein, Christine (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
-
- Anthoni, Peter (author)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
- show more...
- show less...
- (creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-08-30
- 2022
- English 25 s.
- In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:16, s. 6495-6519
- Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract
Subject headings
Close
- Understanding uncertainties and sensitivities of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyze sensitivities (change in model outputs per unit change in inputs) and uncertainties (changes in model outputs scaled to uncertainty in inputs) of vegetation dynamics under climate change, projected by a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS v4.0) across European forests (the species Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Pinus sylvestris), considering uncertainties of both model parameters and environmental drivers. We find that projected forest carbon fluxes are most sensitive to photosynthesis-, water-, and mortality-related parameters, while predictive uncertainties are dominantly induced by environmental drivers and parameters related to water and mortality. The importance of environmental drivers for predictive uncertainty increases with increasing temperature. Moreover, most of the interactions of model inputs (environmental drivers and parameters) are between environmental drivers themselves or between parameters and environmental drivers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of environmental drivers not only as contributors to predictive uncertainty in their own right but also as modifiers of sensitivities and thus uncertainties in other ecosystem processes. Reducing uncertainty in mortality-related processes and accounting for environmental influence on processes should therefore be a focus in further model development.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
Find in a library
- Geoscientific Model Development (Search for host publication in LIBRIS)
To the university's database
- 1 of 1
- Previous record
- Next record
- To hitlist
Find more in SwePub
- By the author/editor
- Oberpriller, Joh ...
- Herschlein, Chri ...
- Anthoni, Peter
- Arneth, Almut
- Krause, Andreas
- Rammig, Anja
- show more...
- Lindeskog, Mats
- Olin, Stefan
- Hartig, Florian
- show less...
- About the subject
-
- NATURAL SCIENCES
- NATURAL SCIENCES
- and Earth and Relate ...
- Articles in the publication
- Geoscientific Mo ...
- By the university
- Lund University
Search outside SwePub
- Extend your search to:
- Google Book Search
- Google Scholar
Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.
- Copyright © LIBRIS - National Library Systems
- LIBRIS.kb.se
