Stochastic Models Involving Second Order Lévy Motions

• This thesis is based on five papers (A-E) treating estimation methods for unbounded densities, random fields generated by Lévy processes, behavior of Lévy processes at level crossings, and a Markov random field mixtures of multivariate Gaussian fields. In Paper A we propose an estimator of the location parameter for a density that is unbounded at the mode. The estimator maximizes a modified likelihood in which the singular term in the full likelihood is left out, whenever the parameter value approaches a neighborhood of the singularity location. The consistency and super-efficiency of this maximum leave-one-out likelihood estimator is shown through a direct argument. In Paper B we prove that the generalized Laplace distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution are the only subclasses of the generalized hyperbolic distribution that are closed under convolution. In Paper C we propose a non-Gaussian Matérn random field models, generated through stochastic partial differential equations, with the class of generalized Hyperbolic processes as noise forcings. A maximum likelihood estimation technique based on the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization algorithm is presented, and it is shown how to preform predictions at unobserved locations. In Paper D a novel class of models is introduced, denoted latent Gaussian random filed mixture models, which combines the Markov random field mixture model with the latent Gaussian random field models. The latent model, which is observed under a measurement noise, is defined as a mixture of several, possible multivariate, Gaussian random fields. Selection of which of the fields is observed at each location is modeled using a discrete Markov random field. Efficient estimation methods for the parameter of the models is developed using a stochastic gradient algorithm. In Paper E studies the behaviour of level crossing of non-Gaussian time series through a Slepian model. The approach is through developing a Slepian model for underlying random noise that drives the process which crosses the level. It is demonstrated how a moving average time series driven by Laplace noise can be analyzed through the Slepian noise approach. Methods for sampling the biased sampling distribution of the noise are based on an Gibbs sampler.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

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